一种改进的数值预报降水偏差订正方法及应用

对传统的消除偏差法进行改进,形成分等级消除偏差法,并使用混合训练期和60 d滑动训练期方案分别对2012年6—8月ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting) 模式夏季1~5 d的降水预报进行订正试验。为了尽可能符合中国东部夏季降水具有移动性及多种时间尺度变化的特点,混合训练期以预报期前30 d与预报期前一年同日的前后各15 d组成。结果表明:在使用分等级消除偏差法的基础上,相比ECMWF模式降水预报,两种训练期方案的订正结果几乎对各个阈值的ETS评分均有一定提高,特别是对25 mm以上降水预报评分的提高幅度,混合训练期方案的订正结果明显高于60 d滑动训练期方案;在区域性强降水预报的订正中,混合训练期方案优势更为明显。另外,通过分析两种训练期方案的预报偏差发现,分等级订正是此次消除偏差订正试验中提高强降水预报评分的关键,选择合适的训练期可以增加评分提高的幅度。由于上述试验使用的ECMWF模式预报和站点实况均是业务上常用数据,因此,该方法具有一定的业务应用价值。     

Analysis on the decadal scale variation of the dust storm in North China

Dust storm is a disastrous weather that can cause serious environmental consequences and hazards. It causes excessive soil mass and nutrient loss in source areas, and air pollution in deposition area, which result in bad influence on agriculture, industry, traffic, and peoples’ daily life[1-4]. Dust storm can also affect the thermal balance of planetary radiation and then lead to meso- to macroscale climatic modification[5-7]. North- west China and North China are two high-frequency centers …     

Uniaxial compression and tension tests of anthracite and loading rate dependence of peak strength

The mechanical characteristics of coal under uniaxial compressive stress and uniaxial tensile stress are key factors in investigations of the stability of galleries and coal faces, and are vital considerations for the efficient design of coalmines, disaster prevention, and environmental preservation. These mechanical characteristics have long been a topic of research, but remain insufficiently understood. In this study we performed uniaxial compression tests and uniaxial tension tests on coal, with particular attention to two concerns. The first was to measure the loading rate dependence of the peak strength of coal. Coal shows high sample-to-sample scatter in strength; test methods that are successful in comparatively homogeneous rock types cannot be used for coal. We therefore used an alternative test method that was recently developed by the authors. Anthracite samples were subjected to alternating slow and fast strain rates. Measured variations in stress during this process were used to estimate the loading rate dependence of peak strength. The second objective was to obtain complete stress–strain curves for coal under uniaxial tensile stress. It is difficult to hold samples secure during a tensile test; consequently, such curves have yet to be obtained. This study presents a successful application of the authors' method to the analysis of coal samples, yielding a complete stress–strain curve under tensile stress. The two methods presented here hold promise for application not only to anthracite but also to a wide variety of coals. It is possible to derive the values of the constants used in constitutive equations from the obtained experimental results. Once these equations are determined, they can be incorporated into finite-element software to investigate various time-dependent behaviors of coal and aid in the efficient design of coalmines and the prevention of subsidence and mine disasters.     

南海北部一百万年以来的表层古生产力变化：来自ODP1144站的蛋白石记录

通过南海北部ODP 1144站蛋白石含量测定及其堆积速率的计算,并结合氧同位素记录等相关资料,获得南海北部1050ka以来高分辨率的表层古生产力变化与冰期旋回和东亚季风的关系。约900ka以来,蛋白石含量及其堆积速率较900ka以前明显增加,反映了“中更新世革命”事件之后,全球气候变冷,并导致表层生产力的提高。由于第四纪冰期旋回中的冬、夏季风的加强,加上1144站特殊的地理位置,使该站在冰期时表层生产力增加,间冰期时表层生产力降低。浮游有孔虫氧同位素记录与蛋白石含量及其堆积速率的时间序列频谱分析结果显示,三者均出现了相对应的偏心率周期、斜率周期和岁差周期,说明该站表层生产力的变化主要受地球轨道周期的驱动。     

山东省冬夏季气温异常的季风特征

利用山东省80个代表站1961~2003年月平均气温资料和同期NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,运用统计学方法,分析了季风背景下冬、夏季气温异常的年际、年代际变化和周期特征及变温的空间分布,并研究了东亚冬、夏季风对气温变化的影响。结果表明,冬夏季气温变化趋势明显不同,冬季增温趋势显著,夏季无明显增温趋势;2~6年的周期振荡在不同时期通过了0.05信度检验,小波分析2004年夏季气温不会偏高推断得到证实。冬、夏季气候具有明显的季风特征,季风与气温关系密切,即强(弱)冬季风山东易冷(暖)冬;强(弱)夏季风,易暖(冷)夏。冬季风比夏季风对同期气温作用更显著。季风的隔季相关性质对气温的变化有一定影响。     

两次西行热带气旋影响云南降水对比分析

利用常规观测资料、中国气象局上海台风研究所(CMA-STI)热带气旋最佳路径数据和FY 2C卫星云图观测资料,以0608台风派比安和0809强热带风暴北冕两个西行热带气旋影响云南降水为例,通过其路径、降水量、移动速度、环境场和物理量场的对比分析,结果表明:两次台风源地、移动路径及登陆地点、影响时段、最大降水落区相同,但影响时间长度、影响范围和造成的灾害程度后者强于前者;西南季风与热带辐合带(ITCZ)较活跃,副热带高压西伸增强,并有低空急流、辐合区配合台风低压环流共同作用是热带气旋导致云南强降水的重要天气背景;云图中尺度分析发现,多种系统的共同作用,导致台风环流持久不消,进而易激发多个α 中尺度对流系统(MαCS)和β 中尺度对流系统(MβCS)云团生成并持久维持,是台风低压强降水发生的直接原因;物理量场的诊断分析表明,活跃的季风系统,使孟加拉湾和南海构成强大的水汽通道,伴随低空急流的建立和增强,致使大量不稳定能量和水汽向云南输送,在云南形成条件性对称不稳定(CSI)和深厚斜压性的正反馈机制,是导致云南强降水的重要物理机制。     

基于离散元的强度折减法分析岩质边坡稳定性

将通用离散元UDEC与强度折减法结合,对含多结构面的岩质边坡的稳定性进行了分析。通过对节理岩质边坡的UDEC模型中的可变形块体和节理单元的强度参数进行折减,使模型不能再达到平衡状态,此时的折减系数就是边坡的安全系数,另外,由对应的边坡块体的速度矢量可以确定滑动面和边坡的破坏形态。通过与传统的条分法的结果比较,表明基于UDEC的强度折减法是一种可靠、有效的方法,为复杂节理岩质边坡的滑动面确定与安全系数计算开辟了新的途径。     

Recent advances in monsoon studies in China

This review provides a synopsis of the major progress that has been made in monsoon studies in China and to further bridge the gap between the Chinese and international meteorological community. It consists of seven major sections. After the introduction, the second section begins with the global monsoon systems and their seasonal variation, based on some new methods proposed in recent years. Besides, some major intraseasonal features of East Asian monsoon, including the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon are discussed. In the third section, we review the interactions between ENSO and the East Asian monsoon, focusing in particular on the results of Chinese meteorologists that indicate the influence of ENSO on the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) is obviously different from that on the tropical monsoon. Besides the tropical Pacific,other ocean basins, such as the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, are also important to the East Asian monsoon, and this topic is discussed in the fourth section. In the fifth section, we address the role of land surface processes in East Asian monsoon. For example, we describe work that has shown more snow cover in spring on the Tibetan Plateau is followed by a weakened EASM and more summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valleys. The sixth section focuses on the influence of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere(SH) on EASM, demonstrating how the signal from the SH is likely to provide new clues for the seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall in China. Finally, in the seventh section, we concentrate on the interdecadal variations of EASM. In particular, we look at a significant interdecadal variation that occurred at the end of the 1970 s, and how our understanding of this feature could affect forecasting ability.     

华北克拉通基性火山岩高场强元素对Ar-Pt界限及新生代地幔源区特征的示踪

华北克拉通不同时代基性火山岩存在向富集方向演化的趋势,并出现明显的Ａｒ－Ｐｔ界限和新生代异常．元古宙基性火山岩比太古宙富集大部分高场强元素（ＨＦＳＥ）和轻稀土元素（ＬＲＥＥ）,ＲＥＥ分异程度显著增加,而且相容性接近的不相容元素（如Ｎｂ,Ｔａ）的相对不相容性发生了改变．新生代玄武岩ＨＦＳＥ及Ｎｉ高度富集,ＲＥＥ强烈分异,δ（Ｅｕ）值最高．Ａｒ－Ｐｔ界限可能与地幔熔融时物理条件（如氧逸度）的改变和地幔富集作用有关．新生代玄武岩独特的地球化学特征可能主要反映了地幔源区的特殊性———“似ＯＩＢ型”富集地幔,其形成既可能有携带远洋沉积物的俯冲古老玄武岩洋壳部分熔融残余的贡献,也可能有直接循环（如通过拆沉作用）的陆壳物质的贡献,同时还可能涉及了地幔柱活动的影响．