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91.
Nearshore sandbars are important features in the surf zone of many beaches because they strongly influence the mean circulation and evolving morphology. Due to variations in wave conditions, sandbars can experience cross-shore migration and vary in shape from alongshore uniform (shore-parallel) to alongshore rhythmic (crescentic). Sandbar dynamics have been studied extensively, but existing observational studies usually do not quantify the processes leading to crescentic bar formation and straightening. This study analyses the dynamics of crescentic bar events at the fetch-limited beach of Castelldefels (northwestern Mediterranean Sea, Spain) using 7.5 years of hourly time-exposure video images and detailed wave conditions. The results show that, despite the generally calm wave conditions, the sandbars were very dynamic in the cross-shore and longshore directions. They often migrated rapidly offshore during storms (up to 70 m in one day) and more slowly onshore during post-storm conditions. Crescentic bars were often present at the study site (48% of the time), but only when the sandbar was at least 10 m from the shoreline. They displayed a large variability in wavelengths (100–700 m), alongshore migration speeds (0–50 m/day) and cross-shore amplitudes (5–20 m). Wavelengths increased for larger bar–shoreline distances and the alongshore migration speeds were strongly correlated with the alongshore component of the radiation stresses. Crescentic patterns typically developed during low–medium energetic waves with limited obliquity ( θ20° at 10 m depth), while bar straightening occurred during medium–high energetic waves with strong oblique angles of incidence ( θ15°). Overall, this study provides further proof for the important role of wave direction in crescentic bar dynamics and highlights the strong dependence of crescentic bar development on the initial bathymetric configuration.  相似文献   
92.
Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (Xn, n 0) or (Xt, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Yn, n 0) or (Yt, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   
93.
A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.  相似文献   
94.
We performed a series of laboratory experiments in which elastic waves were transmitted across a simulated fault. Two types of experiments were carried out: (1) Normal Stress Holding Test (NSHT): normal stress was kept constant for about 3 h without shear stress and transmission waves were observed. (2) Shear Stress Increasing Test (SSIT): shear stress was gradually increased until a stick-slip event occurred. Transmission waves were continuously observed throughout the process of stress accumulation. We focused on the change in transmission waves during the application of shear stress and especially during precursory slips.It was found in NSHT that the amplitude of transmission waves linearly increased with the logarithm of stationary contact time. The increase amounted to a few percent after about 3 h. Creep at asperity contacts is responsible for this phenomenon. From a theoretical consideration, it was concluded that the real contact area increased with the logarithm of stationary contact time.We observed in SSIT a significant increase in wave amplitude with shear stress application. This phenomenon cannot be attributed to the time effect observed in NSHT. Instead, it can be explained by the mechanism of “junction growth” proposed by Tabor. Junction growth yields an increase in real contact area. It is required for junction growth to occur that the material in contact is already plastic under a purely normal loading condition. A computer simulation confirmed that this requirement was satisfied in our experiments. We also found that the rate at which the amplitude increased was slightly reduced prior to a stick-slip event. The onset time of the reduction well coincides with the onset of precursory slip. The cause of the reduction is attributed to the reset of stationary contact time due to displacement. This interpretation is supported by the result of NSHT. Taking the time of stationary contact in SSIT into account, we may expect the change in wave amplitude to be, at most, only a few percent. The observed slight reduction in increasing rate is, in this sense, reasonable. The static stiffness of the fault also decreases with precursory slip. It was also found that low frequency waves are a better indicator of precursory slip than high frequency waves. This might suggest that low frequency waves with longer wavelength are a better indicator of average behavior of faults. The problem, however, merits a further investigation. The shifts in phase were also found to be a good indicator of the change in contact state of the fault. The changes in both amplitude and phase of transmission waves are unifyingly understood through the theory of transmission coefficient presented by Pyrak-Nolte et al. Rough surfaces have a tendency to give larger stick-slips than smooth surfaces. The amount of precursory slip is larger for rough surfaces than for smooth surfaces. Although it was confirmed by a computer simulation that rough surfaces have larger contact diameters than smooth surfaces, the rigorous relationship between the surface roughness (contact diameter) and the amount of precursory slips was not established.  相似文献   
95.
Riccardo Fanti 《Landslides》2006,3(4):323-330
The hill of San Miniato (Florence, Italy) has been repeatedly identified in the past as the site of a slow moving, intermittent landslide. Possible hypotheses regarding the mechanisms responsible for past movements and for cracks and fissures present today are formulated based on the comparison of historical information and processed monitoring data. Although it is not possible to completely exclude a large inactive landslide that involves the entire northern slope, it seems more probable that the slide, if it does exist, is no longer active and that present-day damage is due to separate shallow movements concentrated in man-made deposits. This hypothesis can only be verified with a temporal extension of the monitoring activities, necessary in any case for planning possible safeguarding measures for the cultural heritage in the area.  相似文献   
96.
A conceptual hydrogeological model of the Viterbo thermal area (central Italy) has been developed. Though numerous studies have been conducted on its geological, geochemical and geothermal features, there is no generalized picture defining the origin and yield of the hydrothermal system. These latter aspects have therefore become the objectives of this research, which is based on new hydrogeological and geochemical investigations. The geological setting results in the coexistence of overlapped interacting aquifers. The shallow volcanic aquifer, characterized by fresh waters, is fed from the area around the Cimini Mountains and is limited at its base by the semiconfining marly-calcareous-arenaceous complex and low-permeability clays. To the west of Viterbo, vertical upflows of thermal waters of the sulphate-chloride-alkaline-earth type with higher gas contents, are due to the locally uplifted carbonate reservoir, the reduced thickness of the semiconfining layer and the high local geothermal gradient. The hot waters (30–60°C) are the result of deep circulation within the carbonate rocks (0.5–1.8 km) and have the same recharge area as the volcanic aquifer. The upward flow in the Viterbo thermal area is at least 0.1 m3/s. This flow feeds springs and deep wells, also recharging the volcanic aquifer from below.  相似文献   
97.
A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified Mw magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s2 for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s2) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s2) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I0 = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s2), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s2) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s2) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s2 and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.  相似文献   
98.
Summary. Discontinuous manual observations and irregular caving characteristics of roof rocks often lead to improper decisions resulting in accidents and production loss. Hence, systematic monitoring of the hanging roof behind the chock shields is necessary for safe and productive mining operations. A real-time application was successfully implemented in an Indian mine for forecasting of hanging roof behaviour to enhance safety and productivity. This paper reports the functioning of real-time TWAP (time weighted average pressure) analysis in the forecasting of hanging roof behaviour in real time.  相似文献   
99.
Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.  相似文献   
100.
The objective of study was to explore short-term trends of processes that determine land-use change in Sierra Norte of Oaxaca (SNO), Mexico. Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) were estimated in a complex mosaic of vegetation in the SNO from 1980 to 2000, and projected them to 2020 through a Markovian model. SNO is highly vulnerable to climatic change according to a 2050 GCM scenario. However, 3% annual rate of tropical and temperate forest deforestation from agriculture and livestock encroachment, suggest the threat from land-use change is higher than that from climatic change for this study site. Productive land-use strategies are needed to reduce such high deforestation rates for tropical regions. Controlling deforestation would also reduce short-term effects of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Because of the necessity to evaluate anthropogenic ecosystem changes, it is imperative to separate short-term influences such as deforestation, from long-term influences such as climatic change.  相似文献   
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