0．7Ma以来的念青唐古拉山脉隆升过程——来自冰川剥蚀作用的证据

通过对念青唐古拉山冰碛地层划分及冰碛物同位素测年，发现最早一期冰碛物形成于0．7～0．6MaBP，指示自中更新世以来念青唐古拉山脉开始隆升，主峰地区发生了大规模的冰川剥蚀作用，形成了大面积分布的冰碛高平台；0．2～0．14MaBP念青唐古拉山又快速隆升，并堆积了刚刚伸出各大沟谷口的高侧碛；0．07～0．03MaBP念青唐古拉山再次小规模隆起，形成各大沟谷内的侧碛和终碛垄；0．01Ma BP还有小规模冰川活动。念青唐古拉山主峰地区的冰川剥蚀作用反映出的山脉隆升过程，可较好地与青藏高原的隆起过程相对比，它应是青藏高原隆升的响应。     

Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

三峡库区云阳新城水平层状岩体高边坡变形破坏主要控制因素

本文对三峡库区云阳新城一些高边坡的勘察成果进行了总结,目的在于了解云阳新城区近水平岩层条件下边坡变形破坏的型式、主要控制因素及支护要点。结果表明,云阳新城高边坡普遍存在表层剥落现象,含膨胀性矿物(主要是伊利石和绿泥石)的泥质岩较快速风化作用是造成边坡表层剥落式渐进性破坏的主要原因;沿卸荷裂隙与泥化夹层的崩滑是边坡失稳的主要型式,但边坡之间崩滑失稳的程度存在较大差异,一些边坡存在相对较为强烈的卸荷及边坡失稳问题,主要归因于其存在与边坡近于平行的构造裂隙。认为及时进行护坡并在工程设计中考虑结构面的存在型式是边坡防护的重点。     

Risk analysis of landslides – A case study

The effects of uncertainty due to the variability of soil parameters on the risk of landsliding in the Himalayan region are investigated using a random field model combined with slope stability analyses. Effects of spatial variability both in horizontal and vertical directions, number of test samples, variations in piezometric level and the influence of earthquake on the reliability of a typical slope in a slide area are investigated. The results show that the reliability of slopes in the slide area is significantly affected by the coefficients of variation of soil parameters, spatial variations of soil parameters, number of test samples and piezometric variations. The results also show that the assumption of isotropic variations to assess slope reliability isconservative. The results of the study are useful in providing guidelines and pointing to remedial measures in the form of sub-surface drainage to improve slope reliability in the area.     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

岩体边坡工程中的位移监测及分析

边坡工程的监测取决于监测人员对岩(土)体介质的认识程度和选择相应的方法和手段。通过对江西德兴铜矿大山村选矿厂东部边坡和北部楔形地质结构体稳定状况的监测,阐述了在边坡工程中位移监测的应用及有关分析。     

洪家渡水电站左坝肩高边坡稳定及加固措施研究

贵州洪家渡水电站左坝肩高边坡开挖高度310 m,采用弹塑性有限元数值模拟方法对左坝肩高边坡施工期岩体应力应变状态进行分析研究,并结合现场变形观测资料对计算结果进行验证,从而对左坝肩高边坡的稳定性进行评价并提出相应的加固措施。     

小湾电站高边坡系统锚固与排水的优化设计方法

据小湾电站地下厂房进水口开挖高边坡的岩体结构与工程地质特征,采用基于结构面网络模拟的随机楔体稳定分析方法对边坡的稳定性进行了三维分析。进一步运用风险分析理论对边坡系统锚杆与预应力锚索的布置进行了优化设计,最后运用结构面网络模拟理论对排水方案进行了优化设计。     

兴山县龙王嘴边坡稳定性分析与加固设计

龙王嘴边坡系坡高达70 m、坡角达70 °的高陡岩质边坡。分析了宜-秭公路石峡段龙王嘴高边坡变形的地质条件,在定量评价龙王嘴高边坡稳定性的基础上,进行了该高边坡的施工图加固设计。根据其特点将350 m长的坡段分为A,B,C三个区,分别采取预应力锚索与锚杆加固、挂网喷射混凝土支护和喷射混凝土支护等措施,实践证明,工程治理效果良好。     

边坡及其它类工程地质问题研究

本文提出有关边坡工程地质研究方面的一些新概念，看法和问题，并概述了属地这一专题的边坡及其它各类工程地质问题的研究成果。