Effects of climate change on coastal fresh groundwater resources

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on fresh groundwater resources specifically salinity intrusion in water resources stressed coastal aquifers. Our assessment used the Hadley Centre climate model, HadCM3 with high and low emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B2) for years 2000–2099. In both scenarios, the annual fresh groundwater resources losses indicate an increasing long-term trend in all stressed areas, except in the northern Africa/Sahara region. We also found that precipitation and temperature individually did not show good correlations with fresh groundwater loss. However, the relationship between the aridity index and fresh groundwater loss exhibited a strong negative correlation. We also discuss the impacts of loss of fresh groundwater resources on socio-economic activities, mainly population growth and per capita fresh groundwater resources.     

西藏阿里札达盆地早更新世早期沉积及其古气候与古环境变化

综合分析了西藏阿里札达盆地早更新世早期的多种与气候环境变化密切相关的地质记录，结果表明该区早更新世早期的沉积可划分为3种不同的沉积相和4个岩性段；古气候与古环境变化可划分为4个阶段：（1）2．68-2．45Ma。为冲洪积相沉积。冻融褶皱开始出现，植被以乔木为主，主要为松、藜、蒿，属山地寒温气候；（2）2．45-2．11Ma，为冲洪积相，地层中冻融褶皱多呈扭曲状，草本植物迅速上升，显示出灌木草原气候特征，气候变得凉爽干燥；（3）2．11-1．49Ma，沉积相为冲洪积相-冰缘沉积相，以冰缘沉积相为主，冻融褶皱层开始增多，出现了喜凉的介形类化石。草本植物数量和种类达到最大，灌木也相对增加，显示气候进一步趋于干旱；（4）1．49-1．36Ma，为冰湖沉积相。地层中普遍出现冻融褶皱，喜凉的介形类化石丰度很高，草本植物有小幅下降，但蕨类植物增加幅度较大，显示了干冷草原气候特征。气候干旱寒冷。     

Carbonate Diagenesis Controlled by Glacioeustatic Sea-Level Changes： A Case Study from the Carboniferous-Permian Boundary Section at Xikou, China

The diagenesis of modern and ancient carbonatesedi ments has been widely studied and systematicallyreviewed since the 1960s (e .g. Moore ,2001 ,1989 ;Wang et al ., 1994 , 1991 ; McIlreath and Morrow,1990 ; Tucker and Bathurst , 1990 ; Schneidermannand Harris , 1985 ; Longman, 1980 ; Bathurst ,1975) . With the development of sequence stratigra-phy and its more widespread application, discussionabout the relationship between diagenesis and se-quence stratigraphy/sea-level changes ,as well as…     

太阳高度角和日出日落时刻太阳方位角一年变化范围的计算

介绍了太阳位置的确定方法，并通过计算给出了全省气象观测台站的日出、日落方向的太阳方位角变化结果以及每个台站一年中正午时刻太阳高度角变化范围。     

黑龙江省气候变化趋势对小麦产量的影响

利用黑龙江省1961～2003年逐日气象资料,采用世界粮食研究模型(WOFOST)和气候变化趋势分析的数学方法,分析了气候变化趋势对小麦产量变化趋势的影响.在黑龙江省中部、东部和北部相对湿润的小麦种植区域,辐射量降低趋势是小麦模拟产量降低趋势的主要气候原因;在松嫩平原西南部的齐齐哈尔市、大庆市和哈尔滨市,降水量增加的趋势是小麦模拟产量增加趋势的主要气候原因;在西北部的北安、五大连池、克山和克东4县,辐射量增加趋势是小麦模拟产量增加趋势的主要气候原因;黑龙江省小麦模拟产量变化趋势百分率的平均值为-1.57%/10a.     

Progress in Predictability Studies in China （2003-2006）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly(2003),predictability studies in China have made significant progress.For dynamic forecasts,two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate,which are superior to the corresponding linear theory.A possible mechanism for the"spring predictability barrier"phenomenon for the El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)was provided based on a theoretical model.To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model,a new initialization scheme was developed,and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments.Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range(monthly)prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations.In statistical forecasts,it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features,and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation.For ensemble forecasts,a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998.Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation.This new downsealing model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.     

“3S”集成技术在“精准土地”调查中的应用研究

本文探讨了土地变更调查常用方法在应用中的一些不足,简要介绍了综合“3S”集成技术的“精准土地”调查的原理和流程,并对应用中出现的坐标系统转换和精度偏移等问题进行了研究。     

基于遥感技术的城市扩展变化研究

以1975年的MSS影像、1992年的TM影像和2004年的中巴资源卫星影像为数据源,对北京市建成区近30 a的扩展变化进行动态监测,运用计算机监督分类技术提取了北京市建成区30 a来的扩展变化信息,并分析出北京市建成区的变化是以老市区为中心向四周辐射蔓延的规律,为北京市未来城市规划与开发提供参考。     

濮阳近50a风速变化特征及突变分析

利用线性分析方法,分析了濮阳近50 a平均风速、大风日数的变化特征,并利用滑动的t检验法分析了风速突变,结果显示:年平均风速以0.498(m/s)/10 a的倾向率减少,大风和扬沙日数分别以2.7 d/10 a和5.6 d/10 a的倾向率减少;平均风速,大风、扬沙日数在20世纪80年代初期发生突变。     

Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerability scoping diagram

Advancing vulnerability science depends in part on identifying common themes from multiple, independent vulnerability assessments. Such insights are difficult to produce when the assessments use dissimilar, often qualitative, measures. The Vulnerability Scoping Diagram is presented to facilitate the comparison of assessments with dissimilar measures. The diagram is illustrated with recent research on drought vulnerabilities, showing that common insights into vulnerability may emerge if independent research teams use a common structure for organizing information about exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity—even if the underlying measures differ between assessments. Broadly adopting this technique, which is grounded in the “Eight Steps” methodological protocol [Schröter, D., Polsky, C., Patt, A., 2005. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10(4), 573–595], will enable a vulnerability meta-analysis, the lessons from which may permit places to identify helpful adaptation or mitigation options without first having to conduct their own vulnerability assessments.