海洋工程设计风速与波高的联合分布

选取我国渤海某处21a的风暴过程后报资料,考虑风暴发生频次的影响,提出泊松二维逻辑分布,并且将其用于海洋石油工程设计中极值风速与波高的联合概率计算,给出了计算海域的风浪设计参数,并与传统的设计标准进行了比较.计算结果表明,新的统计模式适用于受风暴影响海区的海洋工程结构设计,特别是边际油田的开发建设.     

Simulating saturation‐excess surface run‐off in a semi‐distributed hydrological model

The level of complexity, and the number of parameters, to include in a hydrological model is a relatively contentious issue in hydrological modelling. However, it can be argued that explicitly representing important run‐off generation processes can improve the practical value of a model's outputs. This paper explores the benefits of including a new function into an existing semi‐distributed hydrological model (the Pitman model) that is widely used in the sub‐Saharan Africa region. The new function was designed to represent saturation‐excess surface run‐off processes at subcatchment scales and was motivated by the evidence of dambo (low topography riparian areas) type features in many sub‐Saharan river basins. The results for uncertainty versions of the model, with and without the new function, were compared for 25 catchments, which were divided up into those where evidence of dambos exists and those where there is no such evidence. The results suggest that the new function certainly improves the model results for the catchments where dambos exist, but not in situations where saturation‐excess surface run‐off is not expected to occur. The overall conclusion is therefore that the addition of the new function is justified.     

Till kinematics in the Stargard drumlin field,NW Poland constrained by microstructural proxies

Deciphering the relationships between streamlined subglacial landforms and deposits therein helps to constrain the dynamics of past ice sheets. Here we present microstructural analyses of till from the largest drumlin field in the North European Lowland generated by a major palaeo-ice stream of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet. Data derived from thin sections and X-ray microtomography (μCT) reveal multiple microstructures including microshears, circular structures, grain stacks and crushed grains. Long axes of micro-clasts measured in thin sections are directionally clustered and have low, down-ice-oriented dip angles. Some samples reveal subordinate clustering oriented at high angles to the main direction. The μCT data show low clustering strengths of clasts and no systematic fabric pattern in the entire set of samples. There is no correspondence between the clast orientations and the directions of drumlin long axes, suggesting that the till is antecedent in relation to the drumlin-shaping process. The observations indicate spatially and temporally variable, shallow-seated brittle and ductile deformation controlled by porewater pressure fluctuations and generated time-transgressively parallel to till accretion. Consistently with previous studies, the data suggest that the Stargard drumlins are erosional remnants of a pre-existing terrain shaped by material removal from the inter-drumlin areas.     

Identifying separate impacts of climate and land use/cover change on hydrological processes in upper stream of Heihe River,Northwest China

Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) are two factors that produce major impacts on hydrological processes. Understanding and quantifying their respective influence is of great importance for water resources management and socioeconomic activities as well as policy and planning for sustainable development. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated in upper stream of the Heihe River in Northwest China. The reliability of the SWAT model was corroborated in terms of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the correlation coefficient (R), and the relative bias error (BIAS). The findings proposed a new method employing statistical separation procedures using a physically based modeling system for identifying the individual impacts of climate change and LUCC on hydrology processes, in particular on the aspects of runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). The results confirmed that SWAT was a powerful and accurate model for diagnosis of a key challenge facing the Heihe River Basin. The model assessment metrics, NSE, R, and BIAS, in the data were 0.91%, 0.95%, and 1.14%, respectively, for the calibration period and 0.90%, 0.96%, and ?0.15%, respectively, for the validation period. An assessment of climate change possibility showed that precipitation, runoff, and air temperature exhibited upward trends with a rate of 15.7 mm, 6.1 mm, and 0.38 °C per decade for the 1980 to 2010 period, respectively. Evaluation of LUCC showed that the changes in growth of vegetation, including forestland, grassland, and the shrub area have increased gradually while the barren area has decreased. The integrated effects of LUCC and climate change increased runoff and ET values by 3.2% and 6.6% of the total runoff and ET, respectively. Climate change outweighed the impact of LUCC, thus showing respective increases in runoff and ET of about 107.3% and 81.2% of the total changes. The LUCC influence appeared to be modest by comparison and showed about ?7.3% and 18.8% changes relative to the totals, respectively. The increase in runoff caused by climate change factors is more than the offsetting decreases resulting from LUCC. The outcomes of this study show that the climate factors accounted for the notable effects more significantly than LUCC on hydrological processes in the upper stream of the Heihe River.     

Vectorized simulation of groundwater flow and contaminant transport using analytic element method and random walk particle tracking

Groundwater contaminant transport processes are usually simulated by the finite difference (FDM) or finite element methods (FEM). However, they are susceptible to numerical dispersion for advection‐dominated transport. In this study, a numerical dispersion‐free coupled flow and transport model is developed by combining the analytic element method (AEM) with random walk particle tracking (RWPT). As AEM produces continuous velocity distribution over the entire aquifer domain, it is more suitable for RWPT than FDM/finite element methods. Using the AEM solutions, RWPT tracks all the particles in a vectorized manner, thereby improving the computational efficiency. The present model performs a convolution integral of the response of an impulse contaminant injection to generate concentration distributions due to a permanent contaminant source. The RWPT model is validated with an available analytical solution and compared to an FDM solution, the RWPT model more accurately replicates the analytical solution. Further, the coupled AEM‐RWPT model has been applied to simulate the flow and transport in hypothetical and field aquifer problems. The results are compared with the FDM solutions and found to be satisfactory. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.     

黄岩海山链俯冲与吕宋岛斑岩铜金成矿

菲律宾吕宋岛上约5Ma以来的斑岩铜金矿床主要集中在北部的Baguio和Mankayan地区,它们在时空上与黄岩海山链密切相关。1907~2013年间的地震数据表明,在吕宋岛中部(16°N)附近存在地震稀疏带。吕宋岛上的斑岩铜金矿床分布在该地震稀疏带的两侧。收集到的相应时期埃达克岩的Sr/Y-(La/Yb)N、Sr/Y-Y和La/Yb-Yb图解表明,这些埃达克岩几乎都是洋壳部分熔融形成的。与吕宋岛北部侵入型埃达克岩相比,位于16°N附近的埃达克岩具有更高的Sr含量,这可能与南海古扩张脊俯冲撕裂形成的板片窗有关。斜长石是辉长岩的主要矿物之一,因此,撕裂的洋壳边缘的辉长岩层部分熔融,形成具有更高Sr含量的埃达克质岩浆。而位于吕宋岛南部Bataan弧中的埃达克质火山岩,可能是在南海古扩张脊俯冲之前形成的。根据已发表的斑岩铜金矿床数据,Mankayan地区的成矿年龄在约3.5~1.4Ma,Baguio地区的成矿年龄在约3.1~0.5Ma之间,有从北向南变年轻的趋势,这与黄岩海山链沿马尼拉海沟向南迁移一致。此外,吕宋岛北部Mt.Cagua到Baguio之间存在一个延伸了220km的第四纪火山活动的空隙,该区域大部分火山已经在中新世停止活动。这可能是黄岩海山链的俯冲使得俯冲倾角逐渐变缓、挤压加强而导致的。同时期的斑岩铜矿床正好分布在这一火山空隙中,是俯冲洋壳部分熔融的产物。     

凌汛期槽蓄水增量过程模拟

为研究凌汛期槽蓄水增量来源,在分析实测冰情资料基础上,把槽蓄水增量分为水位壅高主河道蓄水量增大、主河道内河水转化为固体冰盖和上滩水形成冰盖及在冰下聚集等3部分,建立河冰动力学模型,模拟河冰生消及槽蓄水增量过程,利用2008/2009年度三湖河口—头道拐河段实测冰情资料对模型进行了验证,表明滩地冰盖及冰盖下滞洪是内蒙古河段槽蓄水增量的主要来源,占最大槽蓄水增量的63.44%,主河道水位壅高引起的槽蓄水增量占26.56%,主槽冰盖蓄水占10.0%。     

西南喀斯特地区地表水热过程研究进展与展望

西南喀斯特地区水文二元结构以及生境条件的异质性导致地表水热过程异常复杂。水热过程机理研究薄弱,已经成为生态系统退化关键过程识别、生态恢复重建推进的关键限制因素。首先从野外科学实验、陆面过程参数化、遥感反演技术3个方面简要论述了地表水热过程的研究方法,指出在喀斯特地区,目前亟需开展的工作是在样地和坡面尺度上对地表水热过程进行系统的观测和实验,以深化水热过程机理研究,并发展适用于喀斯特地区的陆面过程模式和遥感反演模型。进而评述西南喀斯特地区地表水热过程已有研究进展与存在问题:水分循环研究的重视,但在特殊的地质背景与复杂的生境条件下,土壤水分时空异质性及降雨入渗产流和土壤侵蚀过程的机理仍不明晰,而且水热耦合研究非常缺失。最后从地表水热过程机理、水热过程变化影响机制、生态系统恢复重建水热调控等方面展望了其未来发展趋势。