ASSIMILATION OF OBSERVED SURFACE WIND WITH GRAPES

With the advances of numerical weather simulation and reduced data assimilation updating cycle, surface observation data assimilation becomes more and more important in data assimilation systems. It is widely accepted that a better data assimilation system should contain the restriction of thermodynamic processes in the surface layer. Therefore, in this paper, a new surface wind observation operator is utilized in Global and Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System_3D-Variance (GRAPES_3D-Var), with the restriction of thermodynamic process in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In order to research the ability of this new surface wind observation operator in assimilation and forecasting, a series of experiments are operated by using the GRAPES model. The main results indicate that this new method of surface wind observation operator has positive impact on the forecast with the GRAPES model.     

夏季中国降水型的年代际变化与大气内部动力过程及外强迫因子关系

根据中国160站月平均降水、NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料以及英国气象局哈德莱中心1900～1999年全球1°×1°格点月平均海表温度距平资料,利用物理量诊断、EOF分析等方法,探讨东亚季风区大气环流内部动力过程与大气外强迫因子（海温）年代际变化及对中国夏季降水型的影响。分析发现,中国东部地区、西北地区夏季降水型有各自不同的年代际变化趋势;中国东部夏季降水型及东亚夏季风环流年代际变化趋势与大气外强迫因子北太平洋中纬度海温年代际变化（PDO）关系密切;中国西北地区夏季降水年代际变化与大气内部动力过程中纬度西风带扰动动能年代际减弱有关。     

Three-dimensional modeling of bank erosion and morphological changes in the Shishou bend of the middle Yangtze River

This paper presents a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical model to simulate morphological changes in alluvial channels due to bank erosion. A method for the simulation of bank erosion is established. This is incorporated into a 3-D mathematical model for turbulent flow and non-uniform, non-equilibrium sediment transport. This model is applied to simulate morphological changes in the Shishou bend of the middle Yangtze River in China, where serious bank erosions occurred during the last two decades. The double-layer sediment structure of the riverbank on the middle Yangtze River is taken into account in the bank erosion module. Both cohesive and non-cohesive bank material in the different layers are considered. The bank erosion module also includes other factors affecting the rate of bank erosion, such as the longitudinal length of failed bank, the thickness of each layer in the double-layer structure, and the erosion-resisting effect of cohesive material from the top layer of failed bank. A locally-adaptive grid system is proposed to efficiently simulate the lateral migration of alluvial channel due to bank erosion. The predictive capability of the 3-D model is examined by laboratory data. Simulated processes of bank erosion agree with field observations in the Shishou bend during the period of October 1996–October 1998, and the bank erosion module plays a significant role in simulating morphological changes of the study reach. In addition, the equivalent channel-forming discharge, which is defined as a constant discharge that can create the same amount of bank erosion in an alluvial channel as that created by natural runoff processes during the same period of time, is proposed to improve calculation efficiency for feasibility studies.     

欧亚大陆及西太平洋边缘海岩石圈结构

根据欧亚大陆及西太平洋地区天然地震、人工地震及其他地学资料，采用多学科多手段进行综合反演，建立欧亚大陆及西太平洋边缘海岩石圈模型，对欧亚大陆及西太平洋边缘海岩石圈软流圈结构进行研究。探讨欧亚大陆及西太平洋边缘海板块结构及深部动力学问题。     

岩浆-热液系统中铁的富集机制探讨

与岩浆-热液系统有关的铁矿类型有岩浆型钒钛磁铁矿床、玢岩铁矿、矽卡岩型铁矿和海相火山岩型铁矿,与这些铁矿有关的岩浆岩从基性-超基性、中性到中酸性岩均有,其中岩浆型钒钛磁铁矿床与基性-超基性深成侵入岩有关,形成于岩浆阶段,主要与分离结晶作用有关,但是厚大的富铁矿石的形成则可归结于原始的富铁钛苦橄质岩浆、分离结晶作用、多期次的岩浆补充以及流动分异等联合过程。钒钛磁铁矿石产于岩体下部还是上部与母岩浆的氧逸度有关:高的氧逸度导致磁铁矿早期结晶而使得其堆积于岩体的下部,相反,低氧逸度则导致低品位的浸染状矿石产于岩体的上部。虽然野外一些证据表明,元古宙斜长岩中的磷铁矿石可能是不混溶作用形成的,但是目前尚无实验证据。某些玢岩铁矿的一些磷灰石-磁铁矿石可能与闪长质岩浆同化混染了地壳中的磷导致的不混溶作用有关。除此之外,其他各类与岩浆作用有关的铁矿床均与岩浆后期的岩浆-热液作用有关。这些不同类型铁矿床的蚀变和矿化过程具有相似性,反映了它们形成过程具有相似的物理化学条件。成矿实验以及流体包裹体研究表明,岩浆-流体转换过程中出溶流体的数量以及成分受多种因素控制,其中岩浆分离结晶作用以及碳酸盐地层和膏盐层的混染可导致出溶的流体中Cl浓度的升高。早期高氧逸度环境可以使得硫以SO42-形式存在,抑制硫与铁的结合形成黄铁矿,有利于铁在早期以Cl的络合物发生迁移。大型富铁矿的形成需要一个长期稳定的流体对流循环系统,而岩浆的多期侵位或岩浆房以及在相对封闭的环境中(需要一个不透水层)一个有利于流体循环的断裂/裂隙系统是形成一个长期稳定的流体对流循环系统的必要条件。但是由于不同地质环境,流体中铁的卸载方式和位置会有明显差别,由此导致不同的矿石结构构造和不同的矿体产状。     

华北克拉通前寒武纪BIF铁矿研究:进展与问题

研究表明,BIF铁矿在华北克拉通的分布具有一定规律性.大规模BIF铁矿主要发育在绿岩带分布区的鞍山-本溪、冀东、霍邱-舞阳、五台、鲁西和固阳等地;华北克拉通时代最古老的BIF形成于古太古代,最年轻BIF形成于古元古代早期,但BIF铁矿的峰期为新太古代晚期(2.52 ～2.56Ga);BIF铁矿类型可划分为阿尔戈马型和苏比利尔湖型两类,但华北以晚太古代绿岩带中的阿尔戈马型为主,仅吕梁的古元古代袁家村铁矿具典型苏比利尔湖型铁矿特征.根据BIF在绿岩带序列中的产出部位和岩石组合关系,可将华北BIF划分为:1)斜长角闪岩(夹角闪斜长片麻岩)-磁铁石英岩组合;2)斜长角闪岩-黑云变粒岩-云母石英片岩-磁铁石英岩组合;3)黑云变粒岩(夹黑云石英片岩)-磁铁石英岩组合;4)黑云变粒岩-绢云绿泥片岩-黑云石英片岩-磁铁石英岩组合;5)斜长角闪岩(片麻岩)-大理岩-磁铁石英岩组合等5种类型.华北克拉通BIF形成时代与早前寒武纪岩浆活动的时间基本一致(2.5～2.6Ga),但与华北克拉通陆壳增生的峰期(2.7～2.9Ga)有一定偏差,其原因可能与新太古代晚期华北克拉通构造-热事件十分强烈有关.华北克拉通新太古代BIF大多形成于岛弧环境,但局部地区(如固阳)BIF铁矿可能形成于深部有地幔柱叠加的岛弧环境.华北克拉通BIF富矿主要有三种类型:原始沉积、受后期构造-热液叠加改造和古风化壳等,但总体不发育富铁矿,国外发育的风化壳型富铁在我国甚为少见.本文认为在探讨BIF铁矿类型时,需要从绿岩带发育序列进行综合判别.阿尔戈马型铁矿一般产于克拉通基底(绿岩带)环境,苏比利尔湖型铁矿一般形成于稳定克拉通上的海相沉积盆地或被动大陆边缘.华北克拉通BIF铁矿地球化学研究结果表明,BIF铁矿无Ce负异常且Fe同位素为正值,从而暗示铁矿沉淀的环境为低氧或缺氧环境,而铕正异常可能指示BIFs为热水沉积成因,其机制可能为海水对流循环从新生镁铁质-超镁铁质洋壳中淋滤出F(e)和Si等元素,在海底排泄沉淀成矿,而条带状构造的形成可能归咎于成矿流体的脉动式喷溢.但对于BIF铁矿的物质来源、成矿条件和机制、富铁矿成因、华北克拉通不发育苏比利尔湖型铁矿的原因等方面,仍需深入研究.     

A CLOUD-RESOLVING MODELING STUDY OF SURFACE RAINFALL PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH LANDFALLING TYPHOON KAEMI(2006)

The detailed surface rainfall processes associated with landfalling typhoon Kaemi(2006) are investigated based on hourly data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated for 6 days with imposed large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal temperature and vapor advection from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data. The simulation data are validated with observations in terms of surface rain rate. The Root-Mean-Squared (RMS) difference in surface rain rate between the simulation and the gauge observations is 0.660 mm h^-1, which is smaller than the standard deviations of both the simulated rain rate (0.753 mm h^-1) and the observed rain rate (0.833 mm h^-1). The simulation data are then used to study the physical causes associated with the detailed surface rainfall processes during the landfall. The results show that time averaged and model domain-mean P_s mainly comes from large-scale convergence (Q_WVF) and local vapor loss (positive Q_WVT). Large underestimation (about 15%) of P_s will occur if Q_WVT and Q_CM (cloud source/sink) are not considered as contributors to P_s. Q_WVF accounts for the variation of P_s during most of the integration time, while it is not always a contributor to P_s. Sometimes surface rainfall could occur when divergence is dominant with local vapor loss to be a contributor to P_s. Surface rainfall is a result of multi-timescale interactions. Q_WVE possesses the longest time scale and the lowest frequency of variation with time and may exert impact on P_s in longer time scales. Q_WVF possesses the second longest time scale and lowest frequency and can explain most of the variation of P_s. Q_WVT and Q_CM possess shorter time scales and higher frequencies, which can explain more detailed variations in P_s. Partitioning analysis shows that stratiform rainfall is dominant from the morning of 26 July till the late night of 27 July. After that, convective rainfall dominates till about 1000 LST 28 July. Before 28 July, the variations of in rainfall-free regions contribute less to that of the domain-mean Q_WVT while after that they contribute much, which is consistent to the corresponding variations in their fractional coverage. The variations of Q_WVF in rainfall regions are the main contributors to that of the domain-mean Q_WVF, then the main contributors to the surface rain rate before the afternoon of 28 July.     

大西洋阻塞高压上层冷中心的成因

基于ERA-40再分析资料以及多尺度子空间变换和多尺度能量分析方法,探讨了大西洋阻塞高压平流层底部冷中心的形成机制,发现该冷中心形成的根本原因为16 d以下(高频尺度)和64 d以上过程(基本气流)向阻高尺度有效位能的正则传输,所获得有效位能在阻高尺度内被输运到西北和东南侧,并转换成动能,起到使阻高强度增加或者维持的作用。这种过程在西北侧表现得尤为明显,这可能是阻高形态不断向西北侧扩展的原因。在传统的认知中,大气有效位能从大尺度向小尺度传输,但本研究发现,阻高发生时,有效位能在平流层底部的传输方向表现为从高频尺度和基本气流尺度同时向阻高尺度传输。此外,前人的研究表明,阻高发展加强之后对流层中阻高动能向有效位能转化使得阻高消亡,而本文的分析表明两种能量的转换方向在平流层底部完全相反——由有效位能向动能转换,起到了使阻高加强或维持的作用。最近的研究表明对流层顶附近的动力学对于阻高的发展和维持非常重要,上述发现增进了对这些动力学深层的了解。     

典型干旱地区陆面特征的模拟及分析

运用NCAR -LSM (Landsurfacemodel)模式对典型干旱区—沙漠站进行了独立试验 (Off line) ,检验了LSM模式在典型干旱地区的性能 ,并分析了典型干旱地区的陆面特征。结果表明 :LSM模式对干旱地区有较好的模拟性能。在不同的季节 ,典型干旱地区的感热和潜热有着不同的特征 ,4月份的感热通量较大 ,约为 4 0 0W·m-2 ;1月和 8月相对较小 ,约为 2 30W·m-2 。 1月和 4月的潜热通量很小 ,约为 4～ 6W·m-2 ,可以忽略 ;但 8月份的潜热通量大 ,平均最大约为 12 0W·m-2 ,当有降水发生时 ,潜热通量可达 5 70W·m-2 ,与感热通量相当。     

一次连续异常高温天气诊断分析

利用常规资料及数值预报产品,分析2010年6月24-27日牡丹江地区的连续高温天气过程的天气形势演变,总结出现高温天气主要是受高空稳定的大陆暖高压、辐射增温、下沉绝热增温、850 hPa有24℃以上的暖中心、高温出现前一天14：00气温偏高等因素的影响。