国家气象中心新一代业务中期预报模式T213L31的主要特点

T2 1 3中期数值预报系统于 2 0 0 2年 9月 1日起在国家气象中心正式业务化。作为此系统核心的T2 1 3L31全球模式与原业务模式T1 0 6L1 9相比 ,采用了一些新的数值技术 ,包括半拉格朗日时间积分方案的引入 ,采用规约格点 ,分布内存与共享内存并行相结合 ,从而在目前有限的计算机资源条件下 ,能积分高分辨率的模式。更重要的是 ,模式采用了一些更新、具有更真实物理概念的物理过程参数化方案 ,对于辐射方案、次网格尺度地形参数化、积云对流方案、云方案、陆面过程方案都作了很大改进 ,从而克服了许多T1 0 6L1 9模式中存在的问题 ,明显提高了T2 1 3L31模式的预报技巧。     

2001年兰州地区春季沙尘暴天气的对比分析

2 0 0 1年 4月 ,兰州地区连续出现了两次区域性强沙尘暴天气。文中从天气概况、气候背景、地面和高空环流形势等方面 ,对两次沙尘暴天气进行了分析。结果表明 ,两次沙尘暴天气过程是在同样的大尺度环流背景下产生的 ,都是由冷锋后偏北大风引起的。但由于造成两次沙尘暴天气的冷空气强度、锋区南压程度、冷空气移动路径等不同 ,因此造成两次沙尘暴天气影响范围、强度也有所不同。同时 ,兰州地区 2 0 0 1年冬季气温异常偏高 ,春季降水偏少以及本地区特殊的地理、地形环境 ,加剧了大风、沙尘暴的出现频次和强度。通过分析 ,初步总结出了此类天气的预报思路和要点。     

The sensitivity of ground surface temperature prediction to soil thermal properties Using the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB2)

Using the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB2), soil thermal properties (STP) were examined in a Tibetan prairie during the monsoon period to investigate ground surface temperature prediction. We improved the SiB2 model by incorporating a revised force-restore method (FRM) to take the vertical heterogeneity of soil thermal diffusivity (k) into account. The results indicate that (1) the revised FRM alleviates daytime overestimation and nighttime underestimation in modeled ground surface temperature (T_g), and (2) its role in little rainfall events is significant because the vertical gradient of k increases with increasing surface evaporation. Since the original formula of thermal conductivity (λ) in the SiB2 greatly underestimates soil thermal conductivity, we compared five algorithms of λ involving soil moisture to investigate the cause of overestimation during the day and underestimation at night on the basis of the revised FRM. The results show that (1) the five algorithms significantly improve T_g prediction, especially in daytime, and (2) taking one of these five algorithms as an example, the simulated T_g values in the daytime are closer to the field measurements than those in the nighttime. The differences between modeled T_g and field measurements are mostly within the margin of error of ±2 K during 3 August to 4 September 1998.     

A Study On Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Characteristics At Anand, India Using Lsp Experimental Data Sets

An attempt is made to study the planetary boundary layer (PBL) characteristics during the winter period at Anand (22.4°N, 72.6°E), a semi-arid region, which is located in the western part of India. A one-dimensional turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure model is used for the study. The structure of the PBL,which consists of profiles of zonal and meridional components of wind,potential temperature and specific humidity, is simulated. A one-dimensional soil heat and moisture transport parameterization scheme is incorporated for the accurate representation of the energy exchange processes at the soil-atmosphere interface. The diurnal variation of fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat, shortwave radiation, net radiation and soil flux, soil temperature at different depths, Richardson number and TKE at the height of the constant flux layer is studied. The model predictions are compared with the available observations obtained from a special Land Surface Processes (LSP) experiment.     

Global Correlations of Ocean Ridge Basalt Chemistry with Axial Depth: a New Perspective

The petrological parameters Na₈ and Fe₈, which are Na₂O andFeO contents in mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) melts correctedfor fractionation effects to MgO = 8 wt%, have been widely usedas indicators of the extent and pressure of mantle melting beneathocean ridges. We find that these parameters are unreliable.Fe₈ is used to compute the mantle solidus depth (P_o) and temperature(T_o), and it is the values and range of Fe₈ that have led tothe notion that mantle potential temperature variation of T_P= 250 K is required to explain the global ocean ridge systematics.This interpreted T_P = 250 K range applies to ocean ridges awayfrom ‘hotspots’. We find no convincing evidencethat calculated values for P_o, T_o, and T_P using Fe₈ have anysignificance. We correct for fractionation effect to Mg^# = 0·72,which reveals mostly signals of mantle processes because meltswith Mg^# = 0·72 are in equilibrium with mantle olivineof Fo_89·6 (vs evolved olivine of Fo_{88·1–79·6}in equilibrium with melts of Fe₈). To reveal first-order MORBchemical systematics as a function of ridge axial depth, weaverage out possible effects of spreading rate variation, local-scalemantle source heterogeneity, melting region geometry variation,and dynamic topography on regional and segment scales by usingactual sample depths, regardless of geographical location, withineach of 22 ridge depth intervals of 250 m on a global scale.These depth-interval averages give Fe₇₂ = 7·5–8·5,which would give T_P = 41 K (vs 250 K based on Fe₈) beneathglobal ocean ridges. The lack of Fe₇₂–Si₇₂ and Si₇₂–ridgedepth correlations provides no evidence that MORB melts preservepressure signatures as a function of ridge axial depth. We thusfind no convincing evidence for T_P > 50 K beneath globalocean ridges. The averages have also revealed significantcorrelations of MORB chemistry (e.g. Ti₇₂, Al₇₂, Fe₇₂,Mg₇₂, Ca₇₂, Na₇₂ and Ca₇₂/Al₇₂) with ridge axial depth. Thechemistry–depth correlation points to an intrinsic linkbetween the two. That is, the 5 km global ridge axial reliefand MORB chemistry both result from a common cause: subsolidusmantle compositional variation (vs T_P), which determines themineralogy, lithology and density variations that (1) isostaticallycompensate the 5 km ocean ridge relief and (2) determine thefirst-order MORB compositional variation on a global scale.A progressively more enriched (or less depleted) fertileperidotite source (i.e. high Al₂O₃ and Na₂O, and low CaO/Al₂O₃)beneath deep ridges ensures a greater amount of modal garnet(high Al₂O₃) and higher jadeite/diopside ratios in clinopyroxene(high Na₂O and Al₂O₃, and lower CaO), making a denser mantle,and thus deeper ridges. The dense fertile mantle beneath deepridges retards the rate and restricts the amplitude of the upwelling,reduces the rate and extent of decompression melting, givesway to conductive cooling to a deep level, forces melting tostop at such a deep level, leads to a short melting column,and thus produces less melt and probably a thin magmatic crustrelative to the less dense (more refractory) fertile mantlebeneath shallow ridges. Compositions of primitive MORB meltsresult from the combination of two different, but geneticallyrelated processes: (1) mantle source inheritance and (2) meltingprocess enhancement. The subsolidus mantle compositional variationneeded to explain MORB chemistry and ridge axial depth variationrequires a deep isostatic compensation depth, probably in thetransition zone. Therefore, although ocean ridges are of shalloworigin, their working is largely controlled by deep processesas well as the effect of plate spreading rate variation at shallowlevels. KEY WORDS: mid-ocean ridges; mantle melting; magma differentiation; petrogenesis; MORB chemistry variation; ridge depth variation; global correlations; mantle compositional variation; mantle source density variation; mantle potential temperature variation; isostatic compensation     

ASSIMILATION OF OBSERVED SURFACE WIND WITH GRAPES

With the advances of numerical weather simulation and reduced data assimilation updating cycle, surface observation data assimilation becomes more and more important in data assimilation systems. It is widely accepted that a better data assimilation system should contain the restriction of thermodynamic processes in the surface layer. Therefore, in this paper, a new surface wind observation operator is utilized in Global and Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System_3D-Variance (GRAPES_3D-Var), with the restriction of thermodynamic process in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In order to research the ability of this new surface wind observation operator in assimilation and forecasting, a series of experiments are operated by using the GRAPES model. The main results indicate that this new method of surface wind observation operator has positive impact on the forecast with the GRAPES model.     

俄罗斯东部区域经济发展差异研究

区域差异历来是国内外学者关注的热点问题,区域差异长期扩大、过分悬殊,会产生严重的负面影响;而处于转轨时期的俄罗斯,由于各种矛盾导致经济发展缓慢、区域差异不断扩大。针对俄罗斯东部地区人口分布特点,利用超越对数计量模型深入分析后发现,俄罗斯东部地区科技贡献率都较低,经济增长主要是依靠劳动力和物质资本的投入,并且劳动力对经济贡献率远高出物质资本的贡献率。要转化优势、加快经济增长,就必须把自然资源与科技创新和劳动力发展等结合起来,提高人力与物质资本的直接产出弹性和外溢弹性,是俄罗斯东部、乃至整个俄联邦增强经济实力,在国际贸易中争取最大利益的重要途径之一。     

夏季中国降水型的年代际变化与大气内部动力过程及外强迫因子关系

根据中国160站月平均降水、NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料以及英国气象局哈德莱中心1900～1999年全球1°×1°格点月平均海表温度距平资料,利用物理量诊断、EOF分析等方法,探讨东亚季风区大气环流内部动力过程与大气外强迫因子（海温）年代际变化及对中国夏季降水型的影响。分析发现,中国东部地区、西北地区夏季降水型有各自不同的年代际变化趋势;中国东部夏季降水型及东亚夏季风环流年代际变化趋势与大气外强迫因子北太平洋中纬度海温年代际变化（PDO）关系密切;中国西北地区夏季降水年代际变化与大气内部动力过程中纬度西风带扰动动能年代际减弱有关。     

欧亚大陆及西太平洋边缘海岩石圈结构

根据欧亚大陆及西太平洋地区天然地震、人工地震及其他地学资料，采用多学科多手段进行综合反演，建立欧亚大陆及西太平洋边缘海岩石圈模型，对欧亚大陆及西太平洋边缘海岩石圈软流圈结构进行研究。探讨欧亚大陆及西太平洋边缘海板块结构及深部动力学问题。     

岩浆-热液系统中铁的富集机制探讨

与岩浆-热液系统有关的铁矿类型有岩浆型钒钛磁铁矿床、玢岩铁矿、矽卡岩型铁矿和海相火山岩型铁矿,与这些铁矿有关的岩浆岩从基性-超基性、中性到中酸性岩均有,其中岩浆型钒钛磁铁矿床与基性-超基性深成侵入岩有关,形成于岩浆阶段,主要与分离结晶作用有关,但是厚大的富铁矿石的形成则可归结于原始的富铁钛苦橄质岩浆、分离结晶作用、多期次的岩浆补充以及流动分异等联合过程。钒钛磁铁矿石产于岩体下部还是上部与母岩浆的氧逸度有关:高的氧逸度导致磁铁矿早期结晶而使得其堆积于岩体的下部,相反,低氧逸度则导致低品位的浸染状矿石产于岩体的上部。虽然野外一些证据表明,元古宙斜长岩中的磷铁矿石可能是不混溶作用形成的,但是目前尚无实验证据。某些玢岩铁矿的一些磷灰石-磁铁矿石可能与闪长质岩浆同化混染了地壳中的磷导致的不混溶作用有关。除此之外,其他各类与岩浆作用有关的铁矿床均与岩浆后期的岩浆-热液作用有关。这些不同类型铁矿床的蚀变和矿化过程具有相似性,反映了它们形成过程具有相似的物理化学条件。成矿实验以及流体包裹体研究表明,岩浆-流体转换过程中出溶流体的数量以及成分受多种因素控制,其中岩浆分离结晶作用以及碳酸盐地层和膏盐层的混染可导致出溶的流体中Cl浓度的升高。早期高氧逸度环境可以使得硫以SO42-形式存在,抑制硫与铁的结合形成黄铁矿,有利于铁在早期以Cl的络合物发生迁移。大型富铁矿的形成需要一个长期稳定的流体对流循环系统,而岩浆的多期侵位或岩浆房以及在相对封闭的环境中(需要一个不透水层)一个有利于流体循环的断裂/裂隙系统是形成一个长期稳定的流体对流循环系统的必要条件。但是由于不同地质环境,流体中铁的卸载方式和位置会有明显差别,由此导致不同的矿石结构构造和不同的矿体产状。