不同插值方法在海域气象参数估算中的可靠性评价

海域条件下的气象观测具有数据稀少、变化大且观测站点分布不均的特点,其插值精度受插值方法影响较大。首先对常规插值方法进行理论分析,进而选取了反距离加权法、克里金法和样条函数法三种插值方法进行了插值实验和精度分析。根据渤海湾某区域的气象历史数据,采用不同方法绘制了温度、压强和湿度的插值平面图,并基于交叉验证的方式对各插值方法进行了对比,给出了不同方法的插值估算可靠性评价。结果表明:温度、压强和湿度的插值精度均是基于反距离加权法的插值结果最优(MAE_(温度)=2.42,RMSE_(温度)=1.92,MAE_(压强)=2.05,RMSE_(压强)=1.30,MAE_(湿度)=11.394, RMSE_(压强)=6.43),同时基于反距离加权法的图形绘制可视化效果也要优于其他两种方法。研究结果可为海域气象参数估算提供理论和实践依据。     

HY-2B卫星散射计海面风场产品质量分析 *

星载微波散射计是获取全球海面风场信息的主要手段, HY-2B卫星散射计的成功发射为全球海面风场数据获取的持续性提供了重要保障。本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)再分析风场数据、热带大气海洋观测计划(Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array, TAO)和美国国家数据浮标中心(National Data Buoy Center, NDBC)浮标获取的海面风矢量实测数据, 对HY-2B散射计海面风场数据产品的质量进行统计分析。分析表明, HY-2B风场与ECMWF再分析风场对比, 在4~24m·s^-1风速区间内, 风速和风向均方根误差(root mean square error, RMSE)分别为1.58m·s^-1和15.34°; 与位于开阔海域的TAO浮标数据对比, 风速、风向RMSE分别为1.03m·s^-1和14.98°, 可见HY-2B风场能较好地满足业务化应用的精度要求(风速优于2m·s^-1, 风向优于20°)。与主要位于近海海域的NDBC浮标对比, HY-2B风场的风速、风向RMSE分别为1.60m·s^-1和19.14°, 说明HY-2B散射计同时具备了对近海海域风场的良好观测能力。本文还发现HY-2B风场质量会随风速、地面交轨位置等变化, 为用户更好地使用HY-2B风场产品提供参考。     

震前卫星热红外环形应力场特征

本文包括两部分内容:①描述了1996年2月3日云南丽江Ms7.0级地震,震前几天的卫星热红外图像呈现圆形,它的NNW、NW、SN、及NE向的热旋扭面往S收敛。该地震地表破裂由一系列张扭性裂缝组成,呈左旋左列,水平位错不明显,垂直断距数厘米。垂直力对构造变动的作用较为明显;而丽江地震震源机制解破裂面II的走向NNE6o,倾向W,倾角44o,P轴方位为NNE3o、仰角75o,近于直立,综合热旋扭面展布、地震地表破裂特征及震源机制解,得出该旋扭椭圆为地幔外侧右旋上涌所造成;②菲律宾萨马岛Ms7.0～7.5强震群及青海共和Ms7.0地震前热应力环椭圆的推进路径。根据这一特征得出交变潮汐力的地球动力学解释。卫星热红外图像震前应力热场的方法是临震预测地震的有效方法,卫星热红外技术辅以震源机制解和地表破裂带力学分析是研究地球动力学有力工具。地球自转速度变化,交变潮汐力和地幔旋扭上涌力是地球动力学的主因。     

利用测高卫星观测数据计算全球海平面季变化

利用了美国宇航局和法国空间局联合公布的Jason-1第1周期至第129周期卫星测高数据,采用共线平差的方法计算了2002年至2005年全球海平面的季变化。计算结果表明,全球海平面高第一、四季度上升,第二、三季度下降,且第三季度下降明显。     

Distance law and formation of satellite systems

In the solar system satellite systems of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus are typical ones. The distribution of the semi-major axis of satellite orbits in each system may be expressed by an empirical formula corresponding to the Titius-Bode law. We found that it can be written as a_n = B′ · Bⁿ, where B′ and B are constants. Values of B′ and B depend on formation conditions of each system. Satellites should be formed in the gas-satellitesimal disk around a planet and by aggregation of satellitesimals. The gas is the major component in the disk and its damping effect must play an important role in the process of aggregation of satellitesimals. It may be proved that radial small perturbation in the disk can cause the gravitational instability and the formation of gaseous rings with increased density, where satellitesimals can easy aggregat into satellites.     

岩石圈地震前兆异常机制

对于电磁卫星所观测到的地震震前电磁异常现象的机制,即电磁异常如何从岩石圈穿过大气层耦合到电离层及其以上空间,目前仍是尚未解决的问题.本文主要介绍目前大量有关地震岩石圈异常的机制研究,力图从卫星地震电磁异常的源头—岩石圈地震来获得相关认识.岩石圈地震前兆异常包括：地表变形、水位变化、悬浮薄雾、超低频（ULF）电磁异常、山脊或山顶发光闪电、卫星红外图片大范围数度温度异常、磁场高于地磁偶极场的0.5%、电离层等离子体密度变化、动物奇异行为等.人们提出了许多试图解释各种异常现象的假说,如热耦合假说、气泡运移假说、边界位错充电假说、离子空穴运移假说等.本文希望通过对以上各种假说提出的基础、物理机理以及异常现象解释的探讨,促进对岩石圈地震前兆异常现象机理认识,从而为地震电磁异常的正确认识提供更有力的帮助.     

基于NOAA/POES卫星观测的磁层相对论电子起源的初探

本文利用低高度极轨卫星NOAA/POES的观测数据,并结合ACE卫星和Polar卫星的观测结果,研究分析了磁层相对论电子的起源. NOAA/POES卫星对于不同地磁活动时期相对论电子的分布和起源进行了较为详细观测, 分析结果表明（1） 亚暴期间注入磁层的能量电子可以为与磁暴相关的磁层高能电子暴提供种子电子;（2）太阳质子事件期间太阳风中的能量电子也可以为磁层中的相对论电子提供所需要的源.     

由ERS-1波形重构确定我国近海平均海平面

近海岸区域平均海面高在大地测量学、物理海洋学以及地球物理学研究中具有非常重要的意义.受各种条件的制约和限制,目前卫星测高技术主要应用于深海区域,在近海区域尤其是海岸线附近区域的应用几乎为空白.本文根据ERS-1测高卫星回波波形特征,采用五参数线性模型,由最小二乘拟合方法,对近海区域尤其是靠近海岸线附近的ERS-1测高波形数据进行波形重构.比较波形重构前、后解算平均海面高,表明波形重构技术不仅明显改善了解算近海海面高的精度,而且增加了近海测高海平面的分辨率,并使卫星测高有效观测延伸至海岸线附近.随后,本文利用波形重构后海面高数据构造了近海多年平均海平面,并对我国近海海平面特征进行了初步分析.     

A New Retracking Technique for Brown Peaky Altimetric Waveforms

A new Brown-Peaky (BP) retracker has been developed for peaky waveforms that usually appear within ～10 km to the coastline. The main feature of the BP is that it fits peaky waveforms using the Brown model without introducing a peak function. The retracking strategy first detects the peak location and width of a waveform using an adaptive peak detection method, and then estimates retracking parameters using a weighted least squares (WLS) estimator. The WLS assigns a downsized weight to corrupted waveform gates, but an equal weight to other normal waveform gates. The BP retracker has been applied to 4-year Jason-1 waveform (2002–2006) in two Australian coastal zones. The results retracked by BP, MLE4 and ALES retrackers have been validated against tide-gauge observations located at Burnie, Lorne and Broome. The comparison results show that three retrackers have similar performance over open oceans with the correlation coefficient (～0.7) and RMSE (～13 cm) between altimetric and tide-gauge sea levels for distance >7 km offshore. The main improvement of BP retracker occurs for distance ≤7 km to the coastline, where validation results indicate that data retracked by BP are more accurate (15–21 cm) than those by ALES (16–24 cm) and MLE4 (19–37 cm).     

Upper Ocean Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

A regional ocean circulation model with four-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme is configured to study the ocean state of the Indian Ocean region (65°E–95°E; 5°N–20°N) covering the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB). The state estimation setup uses 10 km horizontal resolution and 5 m vertical resolution in the upper ocean. The in-situ temperature and salinity, satellite-derived observations of sea surface height, and blended (in-situ and satellite-derived) observations of sea surface temperature alongwith their associated uncertainties are used for data assimilation with the regionally configured ocean model. The ocean state estimation is carried out for 61 days (1 June to 31 July 2013). The assimilated fields are closer to observations compared to other global state estimates. The mixed layer depth (MLD) of the region shows deepening during the period of assimilation with AS showing higher MLD compared to the BoB. An empirical forecast equation is derived for the prediction of MLD using the air–sea forcing variables as predictors. The surface and sub-surface (50 m) heat and salt budget tendencies of the region are also investigated. It is found that at the sub-surface, only the advection and diffusion temperature and salt tendencies are important.