A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

Simultaneous transport of water and solutes under transient unsaturated flow conditions — A case study

The imbalance between incoming and outgoing salt causes salinization of soils and sub-soils that result in increasing the salinity of stream-flows and agriculture land. This salinization is a serious environmental hazard particularly in semi-arid and arid lands. In order to estimate the magnitude of the hazard posed by salinity, it is important to understand and identify the processes that control salt movement from the soil surface through the root zone to the ground water and stream flows. In the present study, Malaprabha sub-basin (up to dam site) has been selected which has two distinct climatic zones, sub-humid (upstream of Khanapur) and semi-arid region (downstream of Khanapur). In the upstream, both surface and ground waters are used for irrigation, whereas in the downstream mostly groundwater is used. Both soils and ground waters are more saline in downstream parts of the study area. In this study we characterized the soil salinity and groundwater quality in both areas. An attempt is also made to model the distribution of potassium concentration in the soil profile in response to varying irrigation conditions using the SWIM (Soil-Water Infiltration and Movement) model. Fair agreement was obtained between predicted and measured results indicating the applicability of the model.     

西藏驱龙超大型斑岩铜矿床:地质、蚀变与成矿

驱龙超大型矿床是一个产于后碰撞伸展环境下、与大洋俯冲无关的新型斑岩铜矿。文章通过对驱龙铜矿床地质、蚀变与矿化的详细研究,建立了驱龙中新世岩浆演化序列,初步查明了岩浆浅成侵位的构造控制要素,厘定了主要的围岩蚀变类型及空间展布规律,查明了引起各期蚀变事件的地质记录及矿化的空间分布规律,并探讨了成矿物质沉淀的机制,初步建立了该矿床的成矿模型。研究表明,驱龙铜矿中新世斑岩是闪长质深部岩浆房不断演化的产物,花岗闪长岩中新发现的、结晶时间为22.2Ma左右的闪长质包体可近似代表深部岩浆房组分,依次产出的花岗闪长岩、呈岩株或岩枝产出的P斑岩、X斑岩及最晚期的闪长玢岩(15.7±0.2)Ma,均为深部岩浆房连续演化的产物,岩浆持续6Ma左右。岩浆演化过程中角闪石、斜长石不断的结晶分异,导致了岩石常量元素、稀土元素及微量元素组成的规律性变化,斑岩埃达克质的特征也因岩浆演化过程中角闪石等矿物的不断结晶分异而引起。X斑岩中锆石的Hf同位素特征表明,岩石可能形成于新生下地壳的部分熔融。大面积产出的花岗闪长岩为驱龙铜矿最主要的含矿围岩,容纳了驱龙矿床70%以上的矿体,主要由斜长石、钾长石和石英组成,具花岗结构-似斑状结构,近EW向产出,其浅成就位可能受背斜控制,其后的各期斑岩均沿该侵位中心上侵,而冈底斯地壳中新世的快速抬升与剥蚀是导致含矿斑岩浅成侵位的根本原因;矿区内的SN向裂隙带既不控岩,也不控矿。浅成侵位的斑岩及深部岩浆房均发生了流体出溶。发生了大量流体出溶的深部岩浆房,是矿区早期蚀变流体的主要来源,显微晶洞构造及单向固结结构(UST)是流体出溶的地质记录。蚀变主要有3种类型,分别为早期的钾硅酸盐化、青磐岩化以及晚期的长石分解。钾硅酸盐化可分为2个阶段,即蚀变矿物以次生钾长石为主的早期钾硅酸盐化和以次生黑云母为主的晚期钾硅酸盐化。青磐岩化因产出的岩石类型不同,蚀变矿物组合具有明显差异性:产于叶巴组地层中的青磐岩化相对较强,蚀变矿物以绿帘石为主;产于花岗闪长岩中的青磐岩化相对较弱,蚀变矿物以绿泥石为主。晚期长石分解蚀变以破坏长石类矿物为特征,蚀变矿物主要为绢云母-绿泥石-粘土等。石英和硬石膏贯穿于上述各种蚀变中。空间上,钾硅酸盐化位于斑岩体及其周围地区,青磐岩化位于钾硅酸岩化外侧。后期形成的长石分解蚀变强烈叠加了早期钾硅酸盐化,介于钾硅酸盐化带与青磐岩化带之间。与早期钾长石化有关的脉体主要为不规则石英-钾长石脉,与晚期黑云母化有关的脉体主要为不规则至板状的石英-硬石膏脉、黑云母脉,与青磐岩化有关的脉体主要为板状的绿帘石-石英脉,与晚期长石分解蚀变有关的脉体主要为板状黄铜矿-黄铁矿脉及黄铁矿脉;在早期钾硅酸盐蚀变与晚期长石分解蚀变转换阶段,发育一组板状的石英-硫化物脉。早期不规则的脉体形成于斑岩结晶早期、矿区裂隙小规模发育阶段;晚期的板状脉体形成于斑岩弱固结或固结之后、矿区大规模连通裂隙发育阶段。驱龙矿区的铜矿化分布较为均一,主体产于花岗闪长岩中,其中,铜矿化主体形成于黑云母化蚀变阶段,转变阶段及长石分解阶段也有大量铜的形成;钼主要形成于转换阶段,长石分解蚀变阶段也有产出。黑云母化阶段,铜的沉淀与角闪石黑云母化、斜长石钾长石化过程中Ca2 的大量释放有关;转换阶段,铜钼矿化可能与压力和(或)温度骤降有关;晚期铜矿化与长石矿化蚀变阶段,斜长石绿泥石化、黑云母绿帘石化过程中Ca2 及Fe2 的释放有关。     

用随机介质模型方法描述孔洞型油气储层

孔洞型储集层具有强烈的非均质性,在空间分布上变化剧烈,规律性差,其地球物理参数(如速度、密度、弹性参数等)在空间上的变化很难用传统的层状介质模型进行刻画.本文借助随机模型方法,研究孔洞型储层中不同孔洞尺度、分布密度与模型参数的关系,建立反映实际孔洞油气储层介质地球物理参数空间分布统计特征的随机介质模型,以更方便地对孔洞型油气储层进行描述,并为碳酸盐岩孔洞型储层地震反射特征的研究提供有效的方法途径.     

中国南方志留系底部优质烃源岩发育的构造-环境模式

我们对宜昌王家湾和张家界三家馆两个剖面的上奥陶统-下志留统剖面的有机碳丰度、有机碳同位素、以及磷和硫元素进行了测定,并结合区域构造背景分析了有机质生产、聚集、保存的有利条件.研究表明,对于下志留统烃源岩而言,对有机质生产的主要贡献来自光合作用,所生成的有机质聚集在陆缘洼地型活动大陆边缘的分隔性盆地中,其有利保存的缺氧条件与冈瓦纳大陆北缘的区域性的缺氧有关.我们认为,扬子克拉通的志留系底部烃源岩与北非的"hot shale"一样,有很大的勘探前景.     

Application of MODFLOW and geographic information system to groundwater flow simulation in North China Plain, China

MODFLOW is a groundwater modeling program. It can be compiled and remedied according to the practical applications. Because of its structure and fixed data format, MODFLOW can be integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology for water resource management. The North China Plain (NCP), which is the politic, economic and cultural center of China, is facing with water resources shortage and water pollution. Groundwater is the main water resource for industrial, agricultural and domestic usage. It is necessary to evaluate the groundwater resources of the NCP as an entire aquifer system. With the development of computer and internet information technology it is also necessary to integrate the groundwater model with the GIS technology. Because the geological and hydrogeological data in the NCP was mainly in MAPGIS format, the powerful function of GIS of disposing of and analyzing spatial data and computer languages such as Visual C and Visual Basic were used to define the relationship between the original data and model data. After analyzing the geological and hydrogeological conditions of the NCP, the groundwater flow numerical simulation modeling was constructed with MODFLOW. On the basis of GIS, a dynamic evaluation system for groundwater resources under the internet circumstance was completed. During the process of constructing the groundwater model, a water budget was analyzed, which showed a negative budget in the NCP. The simulation period was from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2003. During this period, the total recharge of the groundwater system was 49,374 × 10⁶ m³ and the total discharge was 56,530 × 10⁶ m³ the budget deficit was −7,156 × 10⁶ m³. In this integrated system, the original data including graphs and attribution data could be stored in the database. When the process of evaluating and predicting groundwater flow was started, these data were transformed into files that the core program of MODFLOW could read. The calculated water level and drawdown could be displayed and reviewed online.     

Flood hazard delineation combining geomorphological and hydrological methods: an example in the Northern Iberian Peninsula

Flood mapping requires the combination and integration of geomorphological and hydrological-hydraulic methods; however, despite this, there is very little scientific literature that compares and validates both methods. Two types of analysis are addressed in the present article. On the one hand, maps of flood plains have been elaborated using geomorphological evidence and historical flood data in the mountainous area of northwestern Spain, covering an area of more then 232 km² of floodplains. On the other hand, a hydrometeorological model has been developed (Clark semidistributed unit hydrograph) in the Sarria River basin (155 km², NW Spain). This basin is not gauged, hence the model was subjected to a goodness-of-fit test of its parameter (curve number) by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The peak flows obtained by means of the hydrological model were used for hydraulic modeling (one-phase, one-dimensional and steady flow) in a 4 km² urban stretch of the river bed. The delineation of surface areas affected by floods since 1918, as well as those analyzed subsequent to the geomorphological study, reveals a high degree of reliability in the delineation of the flooded areas with frequent recurrence intervals (<50 years). If we compare these flooded surface areas with the estimate obtained by the hydrological-hydraulic method we can see that the latter method overestimates the extent of the surface water by 144% for very frequent recurrence intervals (>10 years) and underestimates it as the recurrence interval increases, by up to 80% less floodplain for exceptional events (>500 years). Finally, a management map is put forth combining the most reliable results available by integrating both methods. Originally presented at the Sixth International Conference on Geomorphology.     

Numerical modeling of tide-surge interaction along Orissa coast of India

The Orissa coast of India is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones. There was extensive loss of life and property due to the October 1999 super cyclone, which devastated large part of the Orissa coast. The shallow nature of the head bay, presence of a large number of deltas formed by major rivers of Orissa such as Mahanadi and Dhamra, and high tidal range are responsible for storm surge flooding in the region. Specifically, rising and falling tidal phases influence the height, duration, and arrival time of peak surge along the coast. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the tide-surge interaction during the 1999 Orissa cyclone by using nonlinear vertically integrated numerical models. The pure tidal solution for the head bay region of the Bay of Bengal provides the initial condition for the fine resolution nested grid Orissa model. However, the feedback from the Orissa model does not affect the head bay model as the study provides a one-way interaction. Numerical experiments are performed to study the tide-surge interaction by considering various relative phases of the tidal waves with the surge-wave produced by 1999 Orissa cyclone. The comparison, although utilizing only the limited estimates of tidal data, appears adequate to assert that the principal features are reproduced correctly.