地震地下流体井水位、水温观测数据集

地震地下流体井水位、水温观测是地震地球物理台网主要观测手段,其数据集包含水位、水温测项的原始数据、预处理数据、产品数据和均值类数据,可为地震监测预报研究提供重要的数据支撑,用于前兆异常、同震响应、区域应力变化特征、含水层参数反演、观测机理等研究。地下流体井水位、水温数据集不仅可为地震预测预报和科学研究提供服务,而且在国民经济建设领域具有重要的应用价值。     

Raindrop Size Distribution Parameters Retrieved from Xinfeng C-Band Polarimetric Radar Observations

The objective of this research was to acquire a raindrop size distribution (DSDs) retrieved from C-band polarimetric radar observations scheme for the first time in south China.An observation period of the precipitation process was selected,and the shape-slope (μ-Λ) relationship of this region was statistically analyzed using the raindrop sample observations from the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) at Xinfeng Station,Guangdong Province.Simulated data of the C-band polarimetric radar reflectivity Z_(HH)and differential reflectivity Z_(DR)were obtained through scattering simulation.The simulation data were combined with DSD fitting to determine the Z_(DR)-Λand log_(10)(Z_(HH)/N_0)-Λrelationships.Using Xinfeng C-band polarimetric radar observations Z_(DR)and Z_(HH),the raindrop Gamma size distribution parametersμ,Λ,and N_0were retrieved.A scheme for using C-band polarimetric radar to retrieve the DSDs was developed.This research revealed that during precipitation process,the DSDs obtained using the C-band polarimetric radar retrieval scheme are similar to the 2DVD observations,the precipitation characteristics of rainfall intensity (R),mass-weighted mean diameter (D_m) and intercept parameter (N_w) with time obtained by radar retrieval are basically consistent with the observational results of the 2DVD.This scheme establishes the relationship between the observations of the C-band polarimetric radar and the physical quantities of the numerical model.This method not only can test the prediction of the model data assimilation system on the convective scale and determine error sources,but also can improve the microphysical precipitation processes analysis and radar quantitative precipitation estimation.The present research will facilitate radar data assimilation in the future.     

山东不同云系降水微物理参数特征

研究不同云系降水的微物理参数特征,对研究降水机制、人工影响天气、雷达定量测量降水、数值预报模式中微物理参数化方案的选择等都有一定意义。本文针对2015年济南地区的液态降水过程,基于微降水雷达(Micro Rain Radar,简称MRR)资料,研究不同云系降水的微物理参数。在400 m高度上,层状云降水0.02~0.2 mm h-1雨强样本数很大,但对累计降水量的贡献很小。混合云和对流云降水在大粒子端数浓度较高。在垂直方向上,层状云降水中的粒子的尺度较集中,中值体积直径D0平均在1 mm左右,随高度的变化不大。对流云降水在雨强大于20 mm h-1时,强垂直气流(包括上升气流和下沉气流)对粒子直径的影响较大,进而影响空中微降水雷达反演降水参数的数据质量。而垂直气流的影响对层状云降水影响较小,在层状云降水时,微降水雷达可以用来分析零度层亮带以下雨滴谱在垂直方向上的演变。     

贺兰山地区沙尘暴若干问题的观测研究

利用贺兰山地区沙尘暴历史资料和综合观测资料 ,对大气背景、浮尘、扬沙和沙尘暴发生期间的大气气溶胶数浓度谱、质量谱、大气总悬浮颗粒 (TSP)及粒径分布、微气象、分光日射观测以及沙尘样品进行中子活化处理 ,分析了该地区浮尘、扬沙和沙尘暴形成规律 ,气候变化特征和贺兰山的影响。并综合研究了沙尘气溶胶尺度谱特征、光学厚度和化学组分等变化特征 ,提出了若干结果。     

洱海沉积物粒度记录与气候干湿变迁

通过对洱海现代沉积物的精细采样,将放射性核素精确计年与沉积物粒度研究相结合,重建了 6 0 0多年来洱海区域气候的干湿变迁,为恢复百年尺度的气候干湿变化提供了一条新途径。研究结果表明,15世纪是洱海地区最为湿润的一个世纪;洱海区域存在 10 0a、2 0 0a两种时间尺度的气候干湿准周期波动;自 19世纪末以来洱海区域气候整体上向干旱化方向发展,目前正处于干旱期末期,预计气候将由干旱转向湿润。     

青藏高原东北部泥炭沉积粒度与元素记录的全新世千年尺度的气候变化

通过对青藏高原东北部共和盆地泥炭沉积的粒度与地球化学元素分析, 重建了区域全新世千年尺度的气候变化过程. 结果显示: 10.0~8.6 cal ka BP区域暖湿程度逐渐增加, 但在8.6~7.1 cal ka BP气候相对寒冷干燥, 7.1~3.8 cal ka BP 暖湿程度总体上为全新世最佳, 但也出现明显的气候波动, 3.8~0.5 cal ka BP气候向冷干方向发展, 0.5 cal ka BP以来气候又逐渐转向暖湿. 这一特征与中国东部季风区的气候变化有很好的一致性. 此外, 区域全新世气候变化过程中存在10次千年尺度的寒冷事件, 并与高原冰芯、 湖泊、 泥炭和风成沉积记录的古气候变化, 甚至与北半球高低纬度的气候变化都具有良好的可比性. 因此, 认为区域全新世气候变化具有"季风模式"与"千年尺度震荡"的双重特点.     

2017年6月10日南京机场强降水过程对航空飞行影响分析

降水对飞行的影响一直是航空气象关注的重点。本文选取2017年6月10日02：30—18：00的一次强降水过程的雨滴谱观测数据,分析了强降水时段雨强与能见度之间的相关关系发现,雨强与能见度呈明显的负相关关系。通过计算平均雨滴谱的各种特征参量,各种粒子对雨强的贡献情况,在雨强较小的区间主要为小粒子,而雨强越大,大粒子的贡献逐渐显现,在最大雨强的区间,出现了三峰形态,3种直径粒子的高浓度对强降水不同阶段的贡献各不相同,对航班飞行的影响也存在差异。使用雨滴参数计算了雨滴对飞机撞击力,分析各类飞机在强降水环境下的飞行受力均达到了10%的动力状况;受力方面各机型在低值区接近一致,有大型机在高值区迅速增加的情况;同样的雨强,小型机受到的力要远小于大型机;各机性在水平方向上的受力情况均较垂直方向大一个量级。     

The tropical intraseasonal oscillation in SAMIL coupled and uncoupled general circulation models

Simulations of tropical intraseasonal oscillation(TISO) in SAMIL,the Spectral Atmospheric Model from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP) State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) coupled and uncoupled general circulation models were comprehensively evaluated in this study.Compared to the uncoupled model,the atmosphere-ocean coupled model improved the TISO simulation in the following aspects:(1) the spectral intensity for the 30-80-day peak eastward periods was more realistic;(2) the eastward propagation signals over western Pacific were stronger;and(3) the variance distribution and stronger signals of Kelvin waves and mixed Rossby gravity waves were more realistic.Better performance in the coupled run was assumed to be associated with a better mean state and a more realistic relationship between precipitation and SST.In both the coupled and uncoupled runs,the unrealistic simulation of the eastward propagation over the equatorial Indian Ocean might have been associated with the biases of the precipitation mean state over the Indian Ocean,and the unrealistic split of maximum TISO precipitation variance over the Pacific might have corresponded to the exaggeration of the double Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) structure in precipitation mean state.However,whether a better mean state leads to better TISO activity remains questionable.Notably,the northward propagation over the Indian Ocean during summer was not improved in the mean lead-lag correlation analysis,but case studies have shown some strong cases to yield remarkably realistic northward propagation in coupled runs.     

STUDY OF THE MODIFICATION OF MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SCHEMES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency and National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) datasets. The multi-model ensemble schemes, namely the bias-removed ensemble mean (BREM) and superensemble (SUP), are compared with the ensemble mean (EMN) and single-model forecasts. Moreover, a new model bias estimation scheme is investigated and applied to the BREM and SUP schemes. The results showed that, compared with single-model forecasts and EMN, the multi-model ensembles of the BREM and SUP schemes can have smaller errors in most cases. However, there were also circumstances where BREM was less skillful than EMN, indicating that using a time-averaged error as model bias is not optimal. A new model bias estimation scheme of the biweight mean is introduced. Through minimizing the negative influence of singular errors, this scheme can obtain a more accurate model bias estimation and improve the BREM forecast skill. The application of the biweight mean in the bias calculation of SUP also resulted in improved skill. The results indicate that the modification of multi-model ensemble schemes through this bias estimation method is feasible.