基于网络流理论的输油管道的最大输送问题研究

在天然气管道网络系统的工艺设计方案中,对布站的站点选择主要取决于其运营成本的相互比较,但鉴于需求和供应之间的关系,还必须考虑管道的输送能力和站点的容量等问题。对于这样复杂化的问题,利用网络流理论的最大流问题和最小费用的最大流问题,建立了输油管道最大输送问题的网络优化模型,并通过实例说明其有效性和可靠性。为输油管道网系统的构建提供了一种新的优化方法,在天然气管道输送决策管理中具有一定的理论参考价值和现实意义。     

Hybrid Estimation of Semivariogram Parameters

Two widely used methods of semivariogram estimation are weighted least squares estimation and maximum likelihood estimation. The former have certain computational advantages, whereas the latter are more statistically efficient. We introduce and study a “hybrid” semivariogram estimation procedure that combines weighted least squares estimation of the range parameter with maximum likelihood estimation of the sill (and nugget) assuming known range, in such a way that the sill-to-range ratio in an exponential semivariogram is estimated consistently under an infill asymptotic regime. We show empirically that such a procedure is nearly as efficient computationally, and more efficient statistically for some parameters, than weighted least squares estimation of all of the semivariogram’s parameters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that standard plug-in (or empirical) spatial predictors and prediction error variances, obtained by replacing the unknown semivariogram parameters with estimates in expressions for the ordinary kriging predictor and kriging variance, respectively, perform better when hybrid estimates are plugged in than when weighted least squares estimates are plugged in. In view of these results and the simplicity of computing the hybrid estimates from weighted least squares estimates, we suggest that software that currently estimates the semivariogram by weighted least squares methods be amended to include hybrid estimation as an option.     

Morphology of the Itapeva to Tramandai transgressive dunefield barrier system and mid‐ to late Holocene sea level change

The surface morphology of the transgressive dunefield barrier extending from Itapeva to Tramandai along the northern littoral of Rio Grande do Sul, is examined and an attempt is presented to link morphological changes across the barrier to Holocene sea level changes. The 4·5 km wide Holocene barrier displays two typical morphologies: an inner part dominated by large‐scale, continuous alongshore, overlapping dunefield phases comprising sand sheets, dunes, deflation plains and precipitation ridges; and an outer part dominated by discontinuous, medium‐ to small‐scale, triangular to lobate transgressive dunefield phases, cut by both active and relict (palaeo‐) creeks or washouts. Holocene sea level in the region rose to c. +1 to +3 m above present reaching a maximum around 5100 years bp and then progressively fell to the present level. We argue that the effect on barrier development was to suppress the development of a drainage system during the rising and maximum stages, and encourage the development of an organized drainage system in the form of regularly spaced washouts during the falling period, and that this change in sea level from rising to falling therefore produced the large‐scale differences in barrier morphology. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entropy‐based equation to assess hillslope sediment production

A new equation to assess hillslope sediment production, based on physical and probabilistic approaches, is presented. The equation, which allows the computation of the delivery ratio for every event, considers the physical variables of travel distance, stream power, settling velocity and gross erosion. The probability density function that arises from the new formulation is solved using the principle of maximum entropy. Based on data from five watersheds in both tropical and temperate zones, the new delivery parameter K_v is calibrated and associated with vegetation cover and conservation practice. The proposed equation is rationally based in relation to parameter K_v. The entropy‐based equation was applied to assess sediment yield in two other experimental watersheds, showing good predictability for the set (mean absolute error of 20·8%). No systematic error was found in the analysed data. The entropy‐based equation showed good predictability for long‐term sets of data and for high‐erosivity events, but did not perform well for the low‐erosivity ones. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对青藏高原末次冰盛期降温值、平衡线下降值与模拟结果的讨论

1999年 5期《第四纪研究》刊登的“青藏高原冰期环境与冰期全球降温”论文 ,内容丰富 ,提出了许多重大问题和新鲜讯息 ,发人深思。本文就部分内容进行讨论 ,认为根据新近若干冰期降温值较大的信息 ,就得出冰期降温幅度为过去认识的两倍的普遍性推断 ,还为时过早。青藏高原新近研究表明夏季降温值是较小的 ;冰川平衡线高度取决于以夏季温度为标志所提供的消融热量与全年降雪积累量的平衡 ,单纯就降温值 ,不能决定平衡线下降值 ;全球各地气候、地形差别很大 ,冰期变化也很悬殊 ,不存在全球均一的 1 0 0 0m左右平衡线下降值 ,干旱区的下降值多低于此数。青藏高原末次冰盛期 (LGM)冰川堆积 (终碛、侧碛 )和侵蚀形态(冰斗、槽谷 )一般保存良好、形态鲜明 ,较易识别 ,近年已获取测年资料 ,证明过去地貌法判别的LGM冰川规模 ,并以此决定的LGM平衡线位置基本恰当 ,当然也有误判者。从 2 0世纪 2 0年代起 ,研究者逐渐认识高原内部主要是中西部LGM平衡线下降值较小 ,经过多次改进的LGM平衡线高度分布图显示约有 1 /3左右地区 ,平衡线下降值不足 30 0m ,实为世所罕见。其原因可能主要在高原西北部是全球惟一高海拔寒旱核心区域 ,为极大陆型或极地型冰川分布区 ,以现代西昆仑山崇测冰川、古里雅冰帽为例 ,平衡线高度     

基于MEM1谱分析的水文时间序列隐含周期特性研究

水文时间序列的隐含周期(本文将简单周期、复合周期及近似周期等统称为隐含周期)的识别、判定是一个重要而又较为困难的问题,相对成熟和有效的做法是对其进行频谱分析。建立在最大熵原理(POME)基础之上的MEM1谱分析,克服了传统谱分析方法的诸多不足,具有频谱光滑、分辨率高等独特优势。为此,以黄河花园口(秦厂)测站年径流系列、月径流系列和年最大洪峰流量序列隐含周期特性的研究为例,探讨了MEM1谱分析在水文时间序列隐含周期特性中的应用。     

根据天气类型划分欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报产品

该研究的主要目的是找出一种对集合预报产品进行释用的新方法。其基本假定是集合预报要素在一定程度上代表了未来可能发生的天气形势。为了解决天气尺度在中期预报的不可预报性问题 ,引入了天气类型的概念。对集合预报进行划分的方法是 Diday提出的动力模糊法 ,初始划分时的重心由天气类型定义 ,划分用到的距离是位移和最大相关方法。根据城市块 (City- Block)距离找出了影响中国的按冬夏两季划分的天气类型 ,初步划分结果表明 ,欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报系统可以预报出横槽转竖型天气类型的演变情况 ,在夏天的预报效果则没有冬天好。     

Maximum likelihood environmental calibration and the compute program WACALIB a correction

A recently discovered error in the part of the computer program WACALIB that implements maximum likelihood (ML) calibration has been discovered and corrected. The new version of WACALIB has been re-run with all the data-sets from which results based on the earlier version of WACALIB had been published. The new results suggest that ML regression and calibration perform as well or even better than weighted averaging (WA), at least when judged by the apparent root mean squared error. Further work involving cross-validation is required to evaluate more fully the relative performance of WA and ML approaches.     

内蒙古固阳渣尔泰山群层序地层与复合海平面变化

通过内蒙古固阳渣尔泰山群的岩性、岩相和相序研究，对其进行了层序分析和层序划分，识别出一级、二级、三级层序层面，包括海侵沟蚀面和暴露-淹没复合型层序界面。共划分出1个超层序，3个大层序和8个层序，总结出渣尔泰山群的不同古地理背景如碎屑滨岸、台缘碳酸盐岩与碎屑岩混积、碳酸盐台地、台前斜坡和陆棚盆地层序发育模式以及内部构成特征，并探讨了复合海平面变化以及对层序发育和演化的控制作用。