Maximum likelihood environmental calibration and the compute program WACALIB a correction

A recently discovered error in the part of the computer program WACALIB that implements maximum likelihood (ML) calibration has been discovered and corrected. The new version of WACALIB has been re-run with all the data-sets from which results based on the earlier version of WACALIB had been published. The new results suggest that ML regression and calibration perform as well or even better than weighted averaging (WA), at least when judged by the apparent root mean squared error. Further work involving cross-validation is required to evaluate more fully the relative performance of WA and ML approaches.     

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook is carried out by modelling peaks over a high threshold. The aims are to illustrate recently developed statistical techniques and to report on interesting features of the flow of the brook over a 58-year period. Peak flows are found to show marked seasonal variation and a downward trend. Then-year return level is estimated for various values ofn, and the reliability of the estimates is assessed.     

第23周太阳活动峰年北京天文台太阳射电观测

An introduction to the instrumonts to be used for solar radio observations in Beijing in Solar Cycle 23 is made in this paper. They are 10cm solar radio telescope which has been used for a long time,and 1.0～2.0GHz,2.6～3.8GHz and 5.2～7.6GHz spectrometers. The former two spectrometers has passed a test,showing high guality,and the 5.2～7.6GHz one will be in operation from 1999. It is believed that highl gualified data should be obtained in the next solar cycle.     

On solution of the inverse problem for confined aquifer flow via maximum likelihood

Joint estimation of transmissivity (T) and storativity (S) in a confined aquifer is done via maximum likelihood (ML). The differential equation of groundwater flow is discretized by the finite-element method, leading to equation _t+x _t=u _t. Elements of matrices and , as well as estimated covariance matrix of noise termu _t, are functions of T and S. By minimizing the negative loglikelihood function corresponding to discretized groundwater flow equation with respect to T and S, ML estimators are obtained. The ML approach is found to yield accurate estimates of T and S (within 9 and 10% of their actual values, respectively) and showed quadratic convergence in Newton's search technique. Prediction of aquifer response, using ML estimators, results in estimated piezometric heads accurate to ±0.5 m from their actual, exact values. Statistical properties of ML estimators are derived and some basic results for statistical inference are given.     

Nonrenewable resources in economic, social, and environmental sustainability

This paper reviews the linkages among energy and mineral resources and economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Nonrenewable resources are shown to be integral components of sustainability, regardless of which paradigmatic definition of the concept is invoked. Potential measures of the degree to which nonrenewable resources contribute to or detract from sustainability are presented. We conclude that a set of such measures should be incorporated in the comprehensive framework of sustainability currently being developed by the Federal government. National scale indicators could be presented within the structure of the seven criteria from the Santiago Declaration, whereas a life cycle or materials flow approach could be used when sustainability of specific resources is at issue.     

GY-15型全液压动力头工程钻机的研制

GY-15型全液压动力头工程钻机是我所根据市场需求,结合自己多年研制全液压动力头钻机的优势开发的一种新型基础桩钻孔设备,本文着重对该钻机的结构特点、试验情况、主要技术参数等作了简要的介绍.     

祁连山西段测震指标异常综合应用

通过对1980年以来至今14个指标的全时间扫描,并使用祁连山西段地区Ms5．0地震进行对应。结果表明,选取A值、AC值、A（b）值、b值、Mf值和地震活动度S值进行同步异常分析,能显著提高祁连山西段地区的有震报震率,但有漏报。对目前地区异常集中区进行时间扫描,结果显示,祁连山西段地区出现同步异常,认为2012年或稍长时期有发生Ms≥5．0中强震的可能。     

石岛湾四种常见鱼类的热耐受性比较研究

作者分别采用动态法和静态法两种实验方法,以石岛湾4种常见鱼类(许氏平鲉(Sebastes schlegeli)、大泷六线鱼(Hexagrammos otakii)、褐菖鲉(Sebastiscus marmoratus)和矛尾虎鱼(Chaeturichthys stigmatias))为研究对象,对比研究了在4个季节基础水温(5.0~26.0℃)和9个温升速率(0.5~15.0℃/h)下这些鱼类的热耐受性。结果表明,4种鱼类的CTM(最大临界温度)和24 h UILT_(50)(24 h高起始致死温度)均与基础水温呈显著正相关,温升速率对鱼类耐热性的影响因鱼种和季节基础温度而异;相同基础水温下4种实验鱼类的CTM值均高于24 h UILT_(50)。4种鱼类的24 h UILT50依次为:矛尾虎鱼许氏平鲉褐菖鲉大泷六线鱼。     

基于动态因子的区域生态安全评价——以河北省万全县为例

本文以河北省万全县为例, 探索在GIS 和RS 技术支持下进行区域生态安全综合评价的 方法。数据包括1992 年8 月的TM影像、2002 年8 月的ETM+和SPOT 影像、1∶5 万DEM等; 选取 植被指数变化、土地利用类型变化和土壤有机质含量变化三类动态评价因子; 采用综合指数法构 建了基于生态退化的动态评价模型; 应用最小二乘原理客观地计算出了模型中各指标的权重; 并最终在ArcGIS 9.0/Spatial Analyst 模块中生成了生态安全评价图, 使模型得以实现。结果表明 该县南部河川区生态安全要优于中部丘陵区和北部山区; 相对不安全区域占到全县总面积的 50.1%, 虽然不安全区域总体分布较为散落, 但在北部和中部相对集中; 总体生态安全评价值为 2.3, 标志着本地区的生态安全级别较低, 应引起当地政府的高度重视。另外, 采用动态评价因子, 比采用静态评价因子具有一定优势; 采用最小二乘原理计算模型中权重系数的方法比较实用和 科学, 降低了人为影响因素, 也可以避免主观判断产生的错误, 为评价模型中权重系数的确定提 供了一种新的方法和选择。     

高光谱遥感土地质量指标信息提取研究进展

高光谱遥感技术已成为提取土地质量指标的前沿技术之一。该文回顾了国内外高光谱遥感技术在土地质量指标提取中的研究进展,总结归纳了作为土地生态系统载体的土壤属性质量指标和反映生态系统结构功能的质量指标中的土壤有机质、全氮、土壤水分、铁氧化物、土壤重金属、土壤质地、土壤盐分、植被覆盖度、生物量、指示种10个指标的提取、敏感波段选择与反演方法,指出研究中存在的问题,最后展望了高光谱遥感技术在土地质量指标提取研究中的应用前景。