在Zebiak-Cane模式中观测MJO强迫对ENSO可预报性的影响, 第1部分:对最大预报误差的影响

With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as external forcing on El Ni(n)o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability is studied. The obs...     

多传感器观测下带乘性噪声系统的逆向滤波与反褶积融合算法

针对多传感器观测环境下带乘性噪声系统的逆向最优滤波与反褶积融合估计问题 ,本文提出了 1种基于极大似然准则的最优融合算法。该算法中各单传感器间并行计算 ,并且融合中心与单传感器处理中心间无反向通讯 ,因而执行效率较高。仿真表明 ,该融合算法产生的逆向滤波与反褶积比单传感器处理结果有较明显提高     

中国东海2万年来海平面变化分析

拟通过中国东海相对海平面与全球海平面对比分析,来获得东海构造沉降数据。但在对比分析的过程中发现,断裂作用对中国东海150m以深海域相对海平面的变化有重要影响。这种作用使东海150m以深海底至少下降了30m,这是我国学者先前误认为中国东海末次冰盛期最低海面位置位于现今海面下150～160m一带的主要原因。在此基础上,进一步对水与冰川重力均衡、沉积物压实和构造沉降作用进行了探讨。结果认为重力均衡不足、沉积物压实作用微弱,构造沉降是造成东海相对海平面与全球海面之间差异的又一重要原因。同时发现东海构造沉降随水深呈规律性变化。断裂作用的表现结果所赋予的更深层次的思考与认识是,在17kaB．P．以前,中国东海水深150～160m一带是1个相对隆起带,其存在对陆架区圈闭和捕获中国大陆古水系和沉积物具有重要意义。     

Runoff and sediment loss responses to rainfall and land use in two agricultural catchments on the Loess Plateau of China

Soil erosion is a severe problem hindering sustainable agriculture on the Loess Plateau of China. Plot experiments were conducted under the natural rainfall condition during 1995–1997 at Wangdongguo and Aobao catchments in this region to evaluate the effects of various land use, cropping systems, land slopes and rainfall on runoff and sediment losses, as well as the differences in catchment responses. The experiments included various surface conditions ranging from bare soil to vegetated surfaces (maize, wheat residue, Robinia pseudoacacia L., Amorpha fruticosa L., Stipa capillata L., buckwheat and Astragarus adsurgens L.). The measurements were carried out on hill slopes with different gradients (i.e. 0 ° to 36 °). These plots varied from 20 to 60 m in length. Results indicated that runoff and erosion in this region occurred mainly during summer storms. Summer runoff and sediment losses under cropping and other vegetation were significantly less than those from ploughed bare soil (i.e. without crop/plant or crop residue). There were fewer runoff and sediment losses with increasing canopy cover. Land slope had a major effect on runoff and sediment losses and this effect was markedly larger in the tillage plots than that in the natural grass and forest plots, although this effect was very small when the maximum rainfall intensity was larger than 58·8 mm/h or smaller than 2·4 mm/h. Sediment losses per unit area rose with increasing slope length for the same land slope and same land use. The effect of slope length on sediment losses was stronger on a bare soil plot than on a crop/plant plot. The runoff volume and sediment losses were both closely related to rainfall volume and maximum intensity, while runoff coefficient was mainly controlled by maximum rainfall intensity. Hortonian overland flow is the dominant runoff process in the region. The differences in runoff volume, runoff coefficient and sediment losses between the catchments are mainly controlled by the maximum rainfall intensity and infiltration characteristics. The Aobao catchment yielded much larger runoff volume, runoff coefficient and sediment than the Wangdongguo catchment. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

固体潮潮汐因子的特征频谱及其应用

本文应用非线性谱分析中的最大熵谱分析方法（ＭＥＭ）、和一般线性功率谱的分析方法，对固体潮潮汐因子的时间序列进行了综合研究，指出固体潮潮汐因子的时间序列中普遍存在明显的半月左右周期的特征频谱；将其应用于地震前兆的分析与探索，对固体潮潮汐因子特征频谱中的前兆变化特征进行了解释，得出结论：半月左右周期的频率域，是固体潮观测中前兆响应的一个重要主频域。     

Mixture models and atypical values

The resolution of a mixture of two or more populations into its component distributions may be markedly influenced by one or a few atypical values. The maximum likelihood solution effectively assigns (part of) each observation to one or another of the components via the posterior probabilities, even though the observation may be widely discrepant from all components. This paper presents a modification of the mixture problem, in which the typicality of each observation is considered, as well as the posterior probabilities, with the contribution of atypical observations being downweighted. The extension to the multivariate case is discussed.     

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Geographic Software Reviewed in this article: THE DIFFUSION GAME . Christopher J. Lovelock and Charles B. Weinberg . MAPIT . Raymond J. Kalush , Jr . SIMODEL . Peter A. Williams and A. Stewart Fotheringham . WEATHER FRONTS . P. C. Moyer . WORLD DYNAMICS . Mark Lewis Baldwin     

Multiple decision-making criteria in the transport and burial of hazardous and radioactive wastes

We evaluate the application of various statistical measures for the identification of optimal financial strategies in environmental projects that may be burdened by the consequences of low-probability, high-cost events. Our particular application lies in the area of transport and burial of hazardous and radioactive wastes but our approach applies to a wide range of problems where the utility structure is of the form of gains minus losses, and where limited and/or catastrophic failures may be encountered. We utilize four statistical measures, the expected value, variance, volatility and cumulative probability to compare the outcomes of limited and catastrophic spills. The maximum expected monetary value which is frequently used in the environmental and gas and oil industries as the sole criterion for the selection of optimum actions is seen to lead to erroneous decisions and fails to unambiguously differentiate the economic consequences of limited and catastrophic failures in a project. We demonstrate that unwarranted inclusion of catastrophic scenarios into the decision-making analysis can substantially alter the perspective of a project and guide a corporation away from an investment that could be profitable even under a limited liability case. We conclude by providing a decision-making procedure for cases where the probabilities associated with future events and/or the monetary returns are characterized not by sharp estimates but rather are represented by a range of values.     

陆相盆地层序地层学研究中几个问题的探讨

将层序地层学理论应用于陆相盆地研究仍处于探索阶段。陆相盆地的层序界面、最大洪泛面和首次洪泛面的识别标志都有别于海相地层。依据层序地层学理论和对松辽盆地的探索性研究, 对陆相盆地提出了层序界面、最大洪泛面和首次洪泛面的识别标志。