地震预报效能评价的研究

地震预报效能评价是个重要而复杂的科学问题,本文从三个方面来研究:用均值预报保证率法和最大振幅法来判定有震综合预报的成败;在几项可接受的基本假设条件下,经严格的数学推导得到若干重要定理,在此基础上进行地震预报有效性的统计检验,借以判断地震预报方法或手段是否与地震流显著相关(即与盲目预报是否有显著性差异);结合地震预报现状,推荐效率值Z系列和相关评分(广义Wallen评分)V系列作为定量表示地震预报有效程度的两种统计评分方法。     

利用模糊聚类方法筛选GPS载波相位组合观测值

鉴于传统GPS载波相位组合观测值筛选方法工作量大的问题，引入了模糊聚类筛选理论，将其与载波相位组合理论相结合．对聚类指标进行了选取．运用最大树聚类法对GPS三频载波相位组合观测值进行了分类。通过矩阵变换法及实例验证了该方法的可行性与可靠性。     

Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and atmospheric predictability research

Because atmosphere itself is a nonlinear system and there exist some problems using the linearized equations to study the initial error growth, in this paper we try to use the error nonlinear growth theory to discuss its evolution, based on which we first put forward a new concept: nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent. It is quite different from the classic Lyapunov exponent because it may characterize the finite time error local average growth and its value depends on the initial condition, initial error, variables, evolution time, temporal and spatial scales. Based on its definition and the at-mospheric features, we provide a reasonable algorithm to the exponent for the experimental data, obtain the atmospheric initial error growth in finite time and gain the maximal prediction time. Lastly, taking 500 hPa height field as example, we discuss the application of the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent in the study of atmospheric predictability and get some reliable results: atmospheric predictability has a distinct spatial structure. Overall, predictability shows a zonal distribution. Prediction time achieves the maximum over tropics, the second near the regions of Antarctic, it is also longer next to the Arctic and in subtropics and the mid-latitude the predictability is lowest. Particularly speaking, the average prediction time near the equation is 12 days and the maximum is located in the tropical Indian, Indonesia and the neighborhood, tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, on these regions the prediction time is about two weeks. Antarctic has a higher predictability than the neighboring latitudes and the prediction time is about 9 days. This feature is more obvious on Southern Hemispheric summer. In Arctic, the predictability is also higher than the one over mid-high latitudes but it is not pronounced as in Antarctic. Mid-high latitude of both Hemispheres (30°S―60°S, 30°―60°N) have the lowest predictability and the mean prediction time is just 3―4 d. In addition, predictability varies with the seasons. Most regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the predictability in winter is higher than that in summer, especially in the mid-high latitude: North Atlantic, North Pacific and Greenland Island. However in the Southern Hemisphere, near the Antarctic regions (60°S―90°S), the corresponding summer has higher predictability than its winter, while in other areas especially in the latitudes of 30°S―60°S, the prediction does not change obviously with the seasons and the average time is 3―5 d. Both the theoretical and data computation results show that nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and the nonlinear local error growth really may measure the predictability of the atmospheric variables in different temporal and spatial scales.     

堤内压盖渗流分析的临界破坏点法

根据洞庭湖区堤防地质特征,建立二元结构堤基堤内压盖模型。基于渗流有限元理论和虚单元固定网格法,编制了堤内压盖渗流有限元程序。通过在压盖上方增加大量强透水性空气单元的方式,解决了压盖渗流计算中经常遇到的2次入渗问题。同时,研究了压盖宽度对防渗效果的影响,得到在堤内有、无水塘的情况下压盖宽度与堤内最大渗透坡降的影响曲线,指出影响曲线主要呈线性变化的趋势,并提出了用于确定临界压盖宽度的临界破坏点法,该法以压盖宽度-堤内最大渗透坡降影响曲线的延长线与天然覆盖层的允许渗透坡降线的交点作为临界破坏点,临界破坏点左侧的堤内区域为可能破坏区域,需要压盖加固;右侧为安全区域,不需加固。临界破坏点法的应用,大幅度地减小了有限元计算模型,避免了多次重复的有限元计算,显著地提高了计算效率,与规范、有限差分等传统方法相比优势明显。     

热带印度洋海温异常与ENS0关系的进一步研究

用1955年1月-2001年12月美国Scripps海洋研究所的海温再分析资料、美国NCEP再分析资料和美国气候预测中心(CPC)资科,讨论了热带太平洋ENSO与热带印度洋海温距平以及与印度洋儡极子(Dipole)的关系,研究结果发现:在垂直最大温度距平曲面(MTAL)上,热带印度洋海温距平分布存在着与热带太平洋ENS...     

海上固定平台测波雷达比测试验研究

南海深水油气开发将成为我国海洋石油工业新的战略区域,掌握该区域的海洋动力环境对于海洋油气资源的开发具有重要意义.由于波浪浮标的安全性较差,容易丢失,利用浮标技术获取长时间序列的波浪参数非常困难.为验证海上固定平台测波雷达的观测性能,对安装于我国南海番禺30-1（简称PY30-1）油田的遥感实验设备及布放在该区域的波浪骑士测波浮标的比测试验进行了介绍,对所获得的波浪数据进行了分析,并得出结论.     

黄酮化合物对球形棕囊藻(Phaeocystis globosa)生长和光合活性的影响

近年来,我国近岸海域赤潮暴发日益频繁,严重危害海洋生态环境、渔业及近海旅游业等海洋经济的发展,也给人类健康带来了威胁。本文研究了两种黄酮化合物槲皮素和杨梅素对我国赤潮暴发种球形棕囊藻生长的影响,并利用调制叶绿素荧光技术探究藻细胞光合作用PSⅡ反应中心光合活性对黄酮胁迫的响应。结果表明:槲皮素和杨梅素均能有效抑制球形棕囊藻的生长(半抑制浓度IC50,5d值分别为0.068和0.309mg/L);槲皮素(16.0mg/L)在第5天对藻细胞的抑制率达到最大(89.38%±0.42%),杨梅素(16.0mg/L)在第7天对藻细胞的抑制率达到最大(84.76%±1.82%);相较于杨梅素胁迫,球形棕囊藻的光合作用对槲皮素胁迫更敏感[0.20mg/L槲皮素胁迫7天后,最大光化学量子产量(F_v/F_m)、实际光化学量子产量(Yield)、最大相对电子传递速率(rETR_(max))和光能利用效率(α)值分别降低18%、14%、24%和28%]。研究结果以期为赤潮暴发的防治技术提供基础的理论科学参考。     

中国沿海海表温度均一性检验和订正

利用惩罚最大T检验（Penalized Maximal T test,PMT）方法,选取均一的邻近气象站为参考站,基于月平均地面气温（SAT）资料,利用相关系数权重平均方法构建参考序列,同时结合元数据信息,对1960-2011年中国沿海27个海洋观测站月平均海表温度（SST）进行了均一性检验与订正,并分析了造成海表温度序列非均一的主要原因。结果表明,中国沿海海洋台站海表温度资料存在较为严重的非均一性问题,几乎所有的台站都存在断点,仪器变更（包括人工观测转自动观测）（占总断点数的52.4%）和迁站（占总断点数的33.3%）是造成序列非均一的主要原因。整套资料负订正量所占比例较高,这种负订正量与人工转自动观测后海表温度观测值偏低有密切关系。这也使得订正后中国沿海平均海表温度趋势与订正前存在明显差异,订正后中国沿海海表温度呈明显的加速上升趋势。     

Analysis of VIV for Barrel-Shaped Mast with Covering Ice by HPD-S Method

The vortex-induced vibrations (VIV) of barrel-shaped mast are calculated by three numerical methods, i.e. Newmark-b, HPD-L (High Precision Direct integration scheme-Linear form), and HPD-S (High Precision Direct integration scheme-Sinusoidal form). According to the measured value, the accuracy curves are given to show the advantages of HPD-S method over others. Based on the comparison above, HPD-S method is used to calculate the influence of ice covering on the mast to VIV responses. It has been proved that the vortex-induced responses of barrel-shaped mast are changed along with ice thicknesses and types.     

分数阶微积分在医学图像处理中的应用

简要介绍了分数阶微积分和医学图像的概念,然后从分数阶微分基本定义出发,得到了可以作用于二维医学图像的分数阶微分掩模,掩模可以根据对图像的需求进行增强,最后通过实验证明,这个方法可以有效完成对医学图像的处理,并且弥补了传统方法不能连续改变处理效果的缺点,是一种简单可行并且效果较好的图像增强方法。