Estimating the CDM market under the Marrakech Accords

Abstract

The agreement on implementation of the Kyoto Protocol achieved at COP7 in Marrakech has important implications for investment in greenhouse gas emission reduction projects in developing countries through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The required actual emission reductions for participating Annex B countries overall will be relatively small, as the United States do not intend to ratify the protocol and significant amounts of carbon sequestered in domestic sinks can be credited. In addition, the potential supply of surplus emission permits (hot air) from Russia and other economies in transition may be as high as total demand in the first commitment period. Thus, even under restraint of hot air sellers, CDM demand will be limited, and a low demand, low price carbon market scenario appears likely.

The magnitude of the CDM will be influenced by a host of factors both on the demand and the supply-side. We analyse these using a quantitative model of the global carbon market, based on marginal abatement cost curves. Implementation and transaction costs, as well as baseline and additionality rules affect the CDM's share in the carbon market. Demand for the CDM is sensitive to changes in business-as-usual emissions growth in participating Annex B countries, and also to crediting for additional sinks. Permit supply from Russia and other economies in transition is possibly the most crucial factor in the carbon market.     

Commitments through financial options: an alternative for delivering climate change obligations

Governments willing to commit themselves to maintain carbon prices at or above a certain level face the challenge that their commitments need to be credible both for investors in low-carbon technology and for foreign governments. This article argues that governments can make such commitments by issuing long-term put option contracts on the price of CO₂ allowances. This mechanism gives investors the right, but not the obligation, to sell allowances to the government at the strike price. From the investors' point of view, a government is therefore fully committed to a price floor for allowances in the future. This proposed approach alters the incentives that a government faces when considering noncompliance and serves to prevent non-compliance. The proposal fares well when assessed against criteria to determine its suitability in legitimacy, enforcement, proportionality, lack of interference from other contracting States, and transparency. It also allows for fine-tuning through the number and duration of issued options and the strike price. A robust contract structure is proposed to protect against government interference that might threaten the credibility of commitments.     

绿色能源,世纪工程--西气东输工程

西气东输工程是国家实施西部大开发战略的重要举措.在鄂尔多斯盆地和塔里木盆地进行的大规模天然气勘探工作表明,可以为西气东输工程准备较为充分的天然气可采储量.同时,根据对河南、安徽、江苏、浙江和上海等五省市天然气需求的预测,天然气需求市场的形势良好.西气东输工程是中国境内第一条达到国际标准的大口径、高压力、长距离输气管道.通过技术攻关和高新技术的应用,西气东输工程从管材及制管、焊接、内涂敷、压缩机增压系统优化、自动化控制到流量计量和焊接的无损检测技术等方面都取得了突破性进展.西气东输工程跨越多个自然环境区和地质构造区带,在工程可行性研究中就环境保护和地质灾害的预防做了大量的研究工作,提出了一系列的保护和预防措施.     

黄河山东段南北展宽区的经济现状及发展对策

20世纪70年代由于防洪、防凌的需要,黄河两侧修建了南、北展宽区,受防洪的限制,展宽区内群众的经济发展相对落后。小浪底水库建成运用后,南北展宽区失去其防洪作用,该文分析了南北展宽区内经济现状和资源的优劣势,针对如何利用现有条件就资源开发、优势互补等方面提出了设想和建议。     

数字经济增长动力与区域收入的空间分布规律

为探究数字经济增长的动力构成、地域差异以及与区域收入之间的空间分布规律,本文以中国数字经济创新高地浙江省为样本,构建了数字经济增长动力要素指标体系,并首先提出了数字经济"增长动力指数"构想.借助Weaver-Thomas模型、灰色关联分析以及GIS分层设色法,从地级市层面对浙江省数字经济增长的主导动力构成进行空间可视化...     

经济学和地理学对区位论发展轨迹的影响

本文从学科发展史的角度,论述了区位论的发展轨迹,区位论与经济学和地理学在研究内容和方法上的异同,以及相互之间的促进关系。     

基于特征价格模型的农村土地征收价格影响因素研究

在分析我国农村土地征收市场现状和农村土地征收价格影响因素的基础上,以天津市环城3个近郊区为例,收集市场案例256宗,选择影响因素13个,采用SPSS12.0进行多元回归,构建了两种形式的特征价格模型,重点分析了影响因素对价格的作用机制。     

论永州市县域旅游经济合作

永州市县域旅游经济合作具有良好的旅游资源条件、社会经济条件及旅游交通条件,但发展水平低,主要表现在县域旅游经济合作的区域范围存在局限性,县域旅游经济合作的内容缺乏广度与深度;县域旅游经济合作的保障机制建设滞后.加快永州市县域旅游经济合作的策略主要有:端正参与县域旅游经济合作的态度;建立健全多层面的合作机制;采取多种多样的合作模式;联合制定旅游产业发展规划.     

循环经济——资源合理开发与利用的科学基础

世界经济的持续增长带来的“资源危机”或“资源安全”问题,促使人们寻求资源集约型经济和循环经济的新理念.本文根据生态学规律,指出按照资源-生产/消费-再生资源的循环经济模式发展经济,是缓解中国资源压力和经济持续发展的基本模式,阐释了循环经济的概念与基本特征,论述了发展循环经济以实现我国资源可持续利用的必要性和可行性,并对我国资源利于如何发展循环经济提出了相应的对策.     

基于数字地价模型的地价监测点配置研究

从数字地价模型的建立、格网数字地价模型向TIN转化、TIN节点与宗地图层叠加拟合完成地价监测点的定位配置、结合市场比较法的监测点地价更新、TIN数字地价模型更新等几个方面详细阐述了数字地价模型运用于地价监测点配置的具体方法。并将这一配置模式与以标准宗地为载体的配置模式进行了比较分析。