Estimation of covariance matrix from geochemical data with observations below detection limits

Multivariate statistical analyses have been extensively applied to geochemical measurements to analyze and aid interpretation of the data. Estimation of the covariance matrix of multivariate observations is the first task in multivariate analysis. However, geochemical data for the rare elements, especially Ag, Au, and platinum-group elements, usually contain observations the below detection limits. In particular, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for the rare elements produces multilevel and possibly extremely high detection limits depending on the sample weight. Traditionally, in applying multivariate analysis to such incomplete data, the observations below detection limits are first substituted, for example, each observation below the detection limit is replaced by a certain percentage of that limit, and then the standard statistical computer packages or techniques are used to obtain the analysis of the data. If a number of samples with observations below detection limits is small, or the detection limits are relatively near zero, the results may be reasonable and most geological interpretations or conclusions are probably valid. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate the covariance matrix from a dataset containing observations below multilevel detection limits by using the marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) method. For each pair of variables, sayY andZ whose observations containing below detection limits, the proposed method consists of three steps: (i) for each variable separately obtaining the marginal MLE for the means and the variances, , , , and forY andZ: (ii) defining new variables by and and lettingA=C+D andB=C–D, and obtaining MLE for variances, and forA andB; (iii) estimating the correlation coefficient _YZ by and the covariance _YZ by . The procedure is illustrated by using a precious metal geochemical data set from the Fox River Sill, Manitoba, Canada.     

海洋划界法理与领海基点信息系统建立

以研究《联合国海洋法公约》及相关法律文书为出发点,探讨海洋划界理论与技术,分析我国领海现状,在此基础上提出领海基点信息管理与应用,建立领海基点信息数据库,进而实际制作领海基点信息系统。     

资源环境承载力评价理论方法与实践

资源环境承载力评价是国土空间规划和三区三线划定的基础,评价理论与方法越来越受到各界的关注,但尚未形成完备的理论框架。本研究引入短板理论、风险理论和边际理论,构建资源环境承载力评价的理论框架与技术方法,并以陕北黄土高原绥德县为研究区开展实证研究。基于短板理论,识别区域重大资源环境问题,遴选1~3个制约性因素;基于边际理论,以资源开发利用利润最大化或无利润作为资源承载力评价标准,开展资源承载力评价;基于风险理论,以人类活动带来的环境问题或灾害引发的生命和财产风险的容许标准作为环境承载力评价标准,开展环境承载力评价;基于单因素承载力评价结果,开展综合承载力评价,评价结果为安全承载、容许超载或不可接受超载;将综合承载力评价结果与区域国土空间开发现状或规划结果做叠加分析,划定区域发展三区三线。通过对绥德县资源环境承载力评价,结果表明,该理论框架与技术方法简便易推广,评价结果可信,可以为国土空间优化、科学划定"三条红线"提供支撑。     

南海南、北大陆边缘盆地烃源岩热演化差异及成因分析

对横跨南海南、北共轭大陆边缘的两条骨干剖面所经过的沉积盆地烃源岩热演化进行模拟,分析了南、北陆缘盆地烃源岩热演化差异。结果表明,南海南部陆缘盆地生烃门限整体比北部陆缘盆地的生烃门限浅,南部陆缘盆地生烃门限整体在2 200~2 300 m之间,中新统烃源岩基本已进入生烃门限;北部陆缘盆地生烃门限整体位于2 500~2 600 m之间,渐新统及其以下烃源岩进入生烃门限。南海南、北陆缘盆地生烃门限的规律性与南海现今热流分布南高北低、西高东低的整体趋势相对应,高热流有利于烃源岩的成熟与生烃,因此热流值高的区域对应生烃门限较浅。造成南、北陆缘主力烃源岩的热演化程度差异的主要原因可能是由南海扩张及古南海俯冲引起的地温场变化所引起。     

黑龙江东部林口地区下白垩统穆棱组砾岩的成因及其意义

大三江地区是中国东部重要的油气资源接替区,早白垩世时期该地区曾为一个统一的盆地,之后盆地遭受破坏分解。如何确定当时的盆地边界进而恢复盆地原型,是该地区亟待解决的关键地质问题之一。前人对盆地边界的确定大都以理论推测为主,缺乏实际证据。本次工作在黑龙江林口地区发现一套穆棱组底部砾岩,对砾石进行成分及分选特征、沉积特征等的统计与分析,结合古水流恢复和地震解释资料,认为该套砾岩整体为冲积扇相,以河道砾岩沉积和漫流砾岩沉积为主,物源主要来自盆地西部的张广才岭。结合地震资料分析,认为研究区穆棱组时期的沉积模型为冲积扇相向滨浅湖亚相的直接过渡。本研究不仅为大三江盆地西部边界的确定提供了直接证据,同时也为该地区今后的油气勘探指明了方向。     

末次冰盛期时吉兰泰盐湖的湖泊状态与古气候特征

通过现代季风边缘区的吉兰泰盐湖钻孔JLT11-A孔沉积岩芯的矿物分析,结合地层盘星藻的含量探讨末次冰盛期(LGM)时湖泊的状态和古气候特征。结果显示:在LGM时吉兰泰湖泊沉积矿物主要是石英、长石为主的碎屑岩沉积,含量在85%左右,显示出陆源碎屑矿物的高输入状态,可能指示区域寒冷干旱的环境;其次是以方解石为主的碳酸盐的沉积,含量约为10%;氯化物为主的石盐类矿物一般不足5%,但持续存在,指示湖泊仍然有较高的盐度,因此地层中的淡水藻类盘星藻可能是由河流输入。由于陆源碎屑矿物输入强烈,矿物组合可能难以直接指示吉兰泰盐湖湖水状态。区域的干冷的气候与大多数的古气候记录一致,而与新疆西部的冷湿的环境不同。对比邻近区域的古气候研究结果发现,本区域在LGM时段夏季降水相对于冰消期偏多,而相对于MIS3阶段晚期偏少,整体夏季风减弱。吉兰泰盐湖末次冰盛期到末次冰消期以来矿物组合的变化表明,湖泊环境可能受到夏季太阳辐射、全球与区域温度变化以及夏季风强弱变化的影响。     

北太平洋副热带环流变异及其对我国近海动力环境的影响

我国东部陆架海和南海是国防安全的重要门户;位处第二岛链以西的副热带北太平洋既是各国争夺的重要海区,又是我国从近海走向大洋的重要通道.围绕"北太平洋副热带环流变异如何通过黑潮与我国近海动力环境之间相互作用"这一国际前沿科学问题,国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"北太平洋副热带环流变异及其对我国近海动力环境的影响"于2007年9月正式立项.该项目不仅有助于拓展和丰富海洋动力学理论,揭示我国近海及邻近大洋动力环境变异机制,提高预测能力,而且也将为维护我国国防安全和海洋权益,为可持续开发利用海洋资源提供海洋动力环境保障.该项目主要研究内容包括:①北太平洋副热带环流变异和调整机理;②黑潮与我国近海的能量与水体交换过程及机制;③北太平洋副热带环流变异与大气驱动力的耦合效应;④我国近海及邻近大洋动力环境变异的可预测性研究.拟解决的关键科学问题为:北太平洋副热带内区环流变异的机理及其对黑潮的影响;黑潮源头变异机理及其对吕宋海峡水交换的影响和黑潮变异机理及其对东部陆架海域动力环境的影响.     

The Linear Coregionalization Model and the Product–Sum Space–Time Variogram

The product covariance model, the product–sum covariance model, and the integrated product and integrated product–sum models have the advantage of being easily fitted by the use of marginal variograms. These models and the use of the marginals are described in a series of papers by De Iaco, Myers, and Posa. Such models allow not only estimating values at nondata locations but also prediction in future times, hence, they are useful for analyzing air pollution data, meteorological data, or ground water data. These three kinds of data are nearly always multivariate and because the processes determining the deposition or dynamics will affect all variates, a multivariate approach is desirable. It is shown that the use of marginal variograms for space–time modeling can be extended to the multivariate case and in particular to the use of the Linear Coregionalization Model (LCM) for cokriging in space–time. An application to an environmental data set is given.     

鄂尔多斯盆地奥陶系马家沟组溶斑形成机理

鄂尔多斯盆地中部气田奥陶系马家沟组属蒸发边缘海相地层,其风化壳是中部气田的主要产气层段。该层中广泛发育毫米级、厘米级的溶斑,这些溶斑的产状、大小、成分以及溶孔内的充填物十分复杂,有的具多期充填,充填物为石膏、石英、方解石、白云石、高岭石、黄铁矿等多种矿物。溶斑中下半部残留的岩石经溶蚀后的白云石晶粒形成的渗流砂示底构造十分明显。研究表明,溶斑的形成不仅具有适宜的岩相古地理环境和其复杂的生成演化史,而且与原始沉积以及不同地史阶段的岩溶作用相关。     

The Functions of China Marginal Sea Sediments in the Cycle of Biogenic Elements

The contents of biogenic elements in China marginal sea sediments are related to their grain sizes, river transport, et al. In general, the finer the grain size is, the higher the contents of organic matter and OC, N, P are, the lower the contents of S and Si are. The biogeochemical environments of sediments are related to Eh, pH, temperature content of OC,Fe3 /Fe2 radio, water dynamics condition, grain size of sediment, S system in sediment interstitial waters, et al., and they influence the early diageneses and cycle of biogenic elements in sediments. In most regions of China marginal sea, the flux directions of S2-, HS-,3- NH4 H4SiO4, PO4 , across the sediment-water interface are from sediment to the overlying seawater, the flux directions of SO42-, HCO3-, NO3-, NO2- across the sediment-water interface are from the overlying seawater to sediment. The irrigation of living things is important in the cycle of the biogenic elements across sediment-water interfaces.