Quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in ground motion models and prediction

The aim of this paper is to compute the ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE)-specific components of epistemic uncertainty, so that they may be better understood and the model standard deviation potentially reduced. The reduced estimate of the model standard deviation may also be more representative of the true aleatory uncertainty in the ground-motion predictions.The epistemic uncertainty due to input variable uncertainty and uncertainty in the estimation of the GMPE coefficients are examined. An enhanced methodology is presented that may be used to analyse their impacts on GMPEs and GMPE predictions. The impacts of accounting for the input variable uncertainty in GMPEs are demonstrated using example values from the literature and by applying the methodology to the GMPE for Arias Intensity. This uncertainty is found to have a significant effect on the estimated coefficients of the model and a small effect on the value of the model standard deviation.The impacts of uncertainty in the GMPE coefficients are demonstrated by quantifying the uncertainty in hazard maps. This paper provides a consistent approach to quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in hazard maps using Monte Carlo simulations and a logic tree framework. The ability to quantify this component of epistemic uncertainty offers significant enhancements over methods currently used in the creation of hazard maps as it is both theoretically consistent and can be used for any magnitude–distance scenario.     

林甸M S 5.1地震前地震活动图像分析和综合预报方法

通过对黑龙江亚板块及其临近区域的不同时段地震活动图像研究分析,发现了中强震前地震活动图像的一些特点,再回归到地震动力学环境中去,建立了理论解释模型和两条判据假说。以此为基础并结合近年来地震活动图像综合分析后,我们在2005年下半年黑龙江省地震趋势会商意见中提出:松嫩盆地是5级以上中强震的主要孕震区。2005年7月25日林甸Ms 5．1地震对此给予了验证。本文对此过程阐述并作进一步分析,希望这种综合预报方法对地震预报工作有所帮助。     

Flow and fracture maps for basaltic rock deformation at high temperatures

Understanding how the strength of basaltic rock varies with the extrinsic conditions of stress state, pressure and temperature, and the intrinsic rock physical properties is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of volcanic systems. In particular it is essential to understand how rock strength at high temperatures is limited by fracture. We have collated and analysed laboratory data for basaltic rocks from over 500 rock deformation experiments and plotted these on principal stress failure maps. We have fitted an empirical flow law (Norton’s law) and a theoretical fracture criterion to these data. The principal stress failure map is a graphical representation of ductile and brittle experimental data together with flow and fracture envelopes under varying strain rate, temperature and pressure. We have used these maps to re-interpret the ductile–brittle transition in basaltic rocks at high temperatures and show, conceptually, how these failure maps can be applied to volcanic systems, using lava flows as an example.     

Thematic Map Analysis Using Multiple Regression

Thematic maps can be analyzed by multiple regression for (1) forward prediction where a younger geological structural map is written as a least-squares function of older maps for information on historical perspectives or (2) by backward prediction where an older map is regressed stepwise on a series of younger ones to aid in prospecting. The technique was evaluated by a series of structure maps on different geological horizons from the U.S. Midcontinent (Kansas) where the forward prediction proved more effective than backward. In forward prediction, the first map entered into a multiple regression is invariably the immediately underlying one as expected. On the other hand, the first map in a backward prediction is not necessarily related to stratigraphy which limits the utility of the technique for prospecting.     

基于Android的移动公交辅助导航系统设计与实现

基于Android移动开发平台,设计一款公交辅助导航软件系统。基于Android操作系统,结合SQLite数据库和百度地图应用程序编程接口,通过全球定位系统实时定位用户当前位置,完成公交线路查询、公交站点查询、出行线路规划等功能。同时,包括离线查询和在线查询,能满足用户在不同情况下完成公交信息查询和路线规划。创新性地提出了效率较高的"基于线路与站点的直达车搜索算法"、"基于直达车线路和站点的换乘车搜索算法"。实验结果表明,系统能运行于基于Android系统的移动设备,为用户出行带来方便。     

基于卫星遥感影像的1∶5000地形图修测探讨

地形图体现测量时的地形地貌,随着城市建设和自然风蚀的影响,其逐渐与实地现状不一致,故实施地形图修测很有必要。本文基于卫星遥感影像的地形图修测方法进行了具体试验,提出了具体思路和作业流程,对地形图快速修测方法进行了有益探索。     

《河南省市县两级行政区域界线详图集》的设计与编制

<河南省市县两级行政区域界线详图集>是根据法定行政区域界线协议书附图、协议书和界桩坐标等界线资料、成果编墓而成的带状地图集.首先对详图集的基本形式和主要内容、特点进行了介绍;然后对图集的技术流程及要求进行了说明,并对编制过程中出现的主要技术问题进行了探讨;最后总结了编制发布该图集的重要意义.     

中国陆域航磁系列图编制与研究进展

航磁图件是地球物理调查基础图件,也是认识地质构造特征的重要参考资料.本文介绍了我国陆域航磁编图概况,总结了陆域航磁调查及数据编图的工作进展,展示了陆域航磁系列编图的重要成果.     

SOFTWARE REVIEWS

software reviews are in this article MACATLAS . Number Cruncher Statistical System (NCSS) TRANSPRO FIRE-ROUTER     

Color map design for visualization in flood risk assessment

Visualizations of flood maps from simulation models are widely used for assessing the likelihood of flood hazards in spatial planning. The choice of a suitable type of visualization as well as efficient color maps is critical to avoid errors or bias when interpreting the data. Based on a review of previous flood uncertainty visualization techniques, this paper identifies areas of improvements and suggests criteria for the design of a task-specific color scale in flood map visualization. We contribute a novel color map design for visualizing probabilities and uncertainties from flood simulation ensembles. A user study encompassing 83 participants was carried out to evaluate the effects of this new color map on user’s decisions in a spatial planning task. We found that the type of visualization makes a difference when it comes to identification of non-hazardous sites in the flood risk map and when accepting risks in more uncertain areas. In comparison with two other existing visualization techniques, we observed that the new design was superior both in terms of task compliance and efficiency. In regions with uncertain flood statuses, users were biased toward accepting less risky locations with our new color map design.