ENSO与西北太平洋强TC相关关系年代际变化研究

利用美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC),中国气象局(China Meteorological Administration,CMA)上海台风所,日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency,JMA)的台风最佳路径资料以及美国NCAR/NCEP再分析资料等,深入研究厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(El Ni1o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)与西北太平洋强热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC),即1 min最大风速大于等于114 kn相关关系的变化。结果表明,ENSO与热带西北太平洋(Western North Pacific,WNP)强TC频数之间的相关关系存在明显年代际变化。在1960—1971年期间(前一阶段),强TC年频数与Ni1o3. 4(11月—次年1月平均)相关性较弱;而在1983—2014年期间(后一阶段)两者的相关性则为强的正相关。并且强TC的年频数、生命史以及生成位置在后一阶段El Ni1o和La Ni1a年之间的差异相比前一阶段都有明显的增大。进一步分析发现:热带太平洋海温异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)的西移是造成后一阶段Ni1o3. 4指数与强TC年频数相关性提高的关键因素。在后一阶段的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)年,SSTA的西移使得WNP东南象限的相对湿度明显增加(减少),从而有利于(不利于) TC在此象限生成。又因为位于东南象限的TC比较容易发展成强TC,因此导致后一阶段的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)年有更多(更少)的强TC在西北太平洋的东南象限生成。     

On the age calibration of the geomagnetic polarity timescale

Knowledge of the age of undated events is not null if a time-order relationship can be found among these events. The knowledge of such a time-ordered sequence can be formalized by using non-informative (uniform) prior probability densities for the ages of undated events and Bayes' theorem to introduce the time-order relationship condition. We show that the conditional probability densities of the ages of events of unknown age are given by various forms of Euler's beta distribution. These distributions yield an estimate of the probability for an undated event to occur in a given age interval.
  We use this method to propose appropriate probabilistic representations of our actual knowledge of the dating of the magnetic polarity reversals during the Cenozoic. These representations take into account the uncertainties arising from irregularities in accretion process and from the quality of a few calibration points. Both types of uncertainties generate large ambiguities in the age of magnetic reversals, which should be taken into consideration when the geomagnetic polarity timescale is used for dating purposes. We propose to use the entropy function to quantify these ambiguities.     

Magnetostratigraphy of Palaeocene basalts from the Vaigat Formation of West Greenland

A palaeomagnetic study comprising the directional results from 289 individual lava flows, sampled along eight sections in the Palaeocene basalts of West Greenland, is reported. The eight individual sections are correlated using lithostratigraphical marker horizons to form a single composite profile. Generally, the lithological correlation is in good agreement with the record of geomagnetic secular variation.
  The total composite palaeomagnetic profile represents a stratigraphic thickness of 1.6  km through the Vaigat Formation, which is the lowermost of the two volcanic formations formed during the main stage of plateau volcanism. Only two polarity zones are found in the composite profile, suggesting a very short duration for the West Greenland main plateau-building volcanism. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates support a high extrusion rate and also indicate that the lower normal polarity zone is Chron C27n and that the upper reverse polarity zone is Chron C26r.
  The C27n–C26r transition is fully recorded along one of the sections (Nuusap Qaqqarsua), with intermediate directions covering a 200  m thick succession of lavas. A combined palaeomagnetic, field and geochemical study along this profile showed good agreement; that is, geochemically and geologically derived single magmatic events show groupings of the palaeomagnetic directions. Supposing a duration for the geomagnetic transition of 5000 years, the eruption frequency during this period was as high as one flow every 80 years.     

Tidal effect on dynamics of pore water nitrate in intertidal sediment of a eutrophic Estuary

To evaluate the effect of the tidal cycle on the pore water nitrate dynamics in intertidal sediment, concentrations of inorganic nitrogen in water and sediment were monitored during tidal cycles in the mud flat of Tama Estuary, Japan. During submergence, nitrate concentration was highest in the overlying water and decreased monotonically with increasing depth in the sediment, suggesting that the primary source of nitrate in the sediment was nitrate transported from the overlying water. Pore water nitrate decreased remarkably during the initial 3–4 hours after the onset of exposure. Thereafter, it was constant or slightly increased until tidal flooding.In situ accumulation of nitrate at the end of exposure, however, did not exceed the nitrate concentrations in the overlying water. The inhibition of nitrate reduction and the stimulation of nitrification would explain the change of nitrate concentration, both consistent with the input of oxygen into the sediment following a 10 mm drop of the water table. In Tama Estuary sediments, the effect of the tidal cycle on the removal of combined nitrogen is rather negative, because high nitrate concentrations in the overlying water canceled the positive effect of nitrate accumulation by nitrification during exposure, while tidal oxygen intrusion have an inhibitory effection sedimentary denitrification.     

Seasonal variations in the origin of lead in snow at Dye 3, Greenland

The isotopic composition and concentration of lead has been measured in fresh and slightly aged snow collected at Dye 3 in southern Greenland during one full year. The lead concentration displayed large variations ranging from 14–3016 pg/g in April (spring) to 3–6 pg/g in September (summer) while the isotopic ratios changed in regular manner during the year. The ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios were 1.15 from spring to mid-summer snow, and increased in late summer to early autumn, reaching 1.20 in winter. These isotopic data indicate that the lead in the autumn to winter snow originated in North America, while that in spring to mid-summer snow is from Eurasia.     

Geomagnetic paleosecular variation at Hawaii around 3 Ma from a sequence of 107 lava flows at Kaena Point (Oahu)

We have sampled a sequence of 107 lava flows in the Waianae series on Oahu, Hawaii, in two separate stretches. The first (51 flows) at Kaena Point extends from sea level to an altitude of 190 m, and the second (56 flows) follows the Satellite Tracking Station road from 218 m to 360 m above sea level. Thermal and af demagnetization yield very similar results, and reveal only normal polarities. K/Ar dating at five different horizons combined with the paleomagnetic results indicate that the sequence was emplaced entirely in the normal polarity interval between the Upper Mammoth and the Lower Kaena polarity transitions (3.22–3.11 Ma). Some of the flows are serially correlated. Filtering does not, however, drastically affect the final results. Inclinations are shallower than those expected from a centered dipole field. Although large (13°), the inclination anomaly is consistent with results from other sites at the same latitude. The scatter of the VGPs about the geographic pole is consistent with available data from other regions at similar latitudes. The scatter of the directions is also consistent with the predictions of recent statistical models of paleosecular variation. Therefore, these results do not support the hypothesis of a Pacific dipole window.     

江淮异常梅雨

对江淮流域1885～1998年的特别丰、枯梅雨进行研究,重点论述近60年中4个重大丰梅年和三个空梅年的降水特点、异常变化、前期有关特征及严重后延影响等,并提出讨论意见。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET*

The time and space variations of the ten-day mean surface sensible heat flux have been analyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP/NCAR from January of 1979 to December of 1995 in the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon region.It is found that large variations of the surface sensible heat flux standard deviations exist in the northwestern Indochina Peninsula and the Indian Peninsula regions,and their locations and strength change significantly during the onset period of SCS monsoon.The negative deviations appear evidently earlier in the Indocbina Peninsula than in the Indian Peninsula but the deviation strength in the Indian Peninsula is stronger than that in the Indochina Peninsula.The appearance of the zonal negative mean deviations in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula corresponds to the date of the SCS summer monsoon onset,while the occurrence of the deviation decrease corresponds to the date of the South Asian monsoon onset.The sensible heat flux increases dekad by dekad before the onset of the summer monsoon in the Indian Peninsula and the Indochina Peninsula and decreases after the monsoon onset.Therefore,the surface sensible heat flux changes in the Indochina and the Indian Peninsula regions maybe have some connections with the SCS monsoon onset and the Indian monsoon onset,and the Indochina Peninsula maybe becomes the sensitive or key region to the SCS monsoon onset and the land maybe plays an important role in triggering summer monsoon onset.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE LATENT HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

The temporal and spatial variations of the ten-day mean surface latent heat flux (TMLH) havebeen analyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP from January of 1979 to December of 1995in the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon region. It is found that there exist maximum centers ofTMLH standard deviation in the northwest Indochina and the Indian Peninsula as well as thewestern Pacific, SCS, the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, and their locations and strengthschange significantly during the period of SCS monsoon onset. A positive zonal deviation of TMLHoccurs first in the Indochina Peninsula, apparently earlier than that in the Indian Peninsula. Theappearance of maximum positive zonal deviations of TMLH approximately coincides with thesummer monsoon onset. Over the Indochina and Indian Peninsulas, the TMLH increases graduallywith a small amplitude of variation before the onset of summer monsoon, and the rate of increase issignificantly enhanced after the onset of the monsoon; whereas over the ocean, TMLH decreasesbefore the monsoon onset, varies little during the period of monsoon and increases gradually afterthe ending of monsoon. Therefore, it seems that the surface latent heat flux plays an importantrole in the maintenance of the summer monsoon, and its variation is an phenomenon accompanyingthe onset of summer monsoon.     

Possible Cause-Effect Relationships Between Vrancea (Romania) Earthquakes and Some Global Geophysical Phenomena

The possibility that the Earth's tides are a triggering factor of Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes is investigated in the first part of this paper. A possible correlation between Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes and geomagnetic jerks is demonstrated in the second part. The last part of the paper presents a number of results concerning a possible relationship between the regularities of strong Vrancea subcrustal seismicity and the Chandler nutation parameters. An attempt is made to integrate all of these phenomena in a more general framework that takes into account physical processes in the Earth mantle and core. A long-term prediction of the next strong Vrancea earthquake is finally attempted.