低碳试点城市的减碳效果及机制研究

评估低碳试点城市的减碳效果和机制路径,可以为中国实现碳达峰及碳中和目标提供重要的实践参考和依据。本文运用2007—2018年中国城市面板数据,构建多期双重差分模型并通过稳健性测试,全面考察了低碳试点政策对碳排放的影响及作用机制。研究发现：① 与非试点城市相比,低碳试点政策显著地降低了城市碳排放强度和碳排放总量;其中,试点城市的碳排放强度对比下降了4.7%,碳排放总量对比下降了7.3%。② 基于城市低碳生产、低碳生活与低碳行政三维主体行为的理论机制分析和实证研究表明：从城市低碳生产维度,生产能源节约、技术进步与推行绿色建筑解释了低碳试点政策减碳效果的60.14%;从居民低碳生活维度,生活能源节约解释了低碳试点政策减碳效果的22.17%;从低碳行政维度,缩减行政支出解释了低碳试点政策减碳效果的17.29%。③ 低碳试点城市的减碳行为具有显著的异质效应。低碳城市试点不仅加快了中国的减碳进程,也为世界控制碳排放以及缓解气候变化提供了具有中国特色的解决方案。     

基于女性视角的低碳旅游综合评价研究——以陕西省宝鸡市为例

基于女性视角,以中国西部城市宝鸡作为典型案例地,从低碳旅游认知、环境价值观、社会责任感、参与低碳旅游意愿、约束感知、旅游地低碳情境6个变量出发,结合计划行为理论和态度ABC理论,利用模糊综合评价法,对宝鸡市女性游客的低碳旅游评价与发展进行探究。结果表明:1)宝鸡市女性游客的低碳旅游综合评价分值为3.352,属于中评价;2)准则层中参与低碳旅游意愿属于高评价(3.5~5.0),环境价值观、社会责任感、约束感知、旅游地情境处于中评价(2.5~3.5),这四者综合评价值差距不大,仅有低碳旅游认知属于低评价(1.0~2.5);3)从准则层来看,综合评价排名前三的分别为:参与低碳旅游意愿>环境价值观>约束感知;4)由模糊综合评价模型得知,低碳旅游认知、社会责任感、约束感知、旅游地情境是发展宝鸡市女性低碳旅游的关键点。提出女性旅游者参与低碳旅游的积极性建议。     

The Characteristic Differences between Ecological Culture and Low-carbon Tourism Cognition under the Vision of Carbon Neutrality

Ecological culture has a low-carbon attribute, which coincides with the concepts of energy conservation and emission reduction in low-carbon tourism. Analyzing the differences in the public perception of the two is of great significance for achieving the carbon neutral goal of tourism. Firstly, the views of nature, equality and ecology in ecological culture, as well as the cognition and participation willingness for low-carbon tourism were identified by using the principal component analysis method. Secondly, all samples were divided into four types of ecological culture cognition: sufficient, relatively sufficient, general and poorer, by the K-means clustering method. Thirdly, significant differences in the low-carbon tourism cognition among different types were revealed by using the ANOVA method. Finally, the influences of the main demographic characteristics on the low-carbon tourism cognition were analyzed. This analysis showed that gender, age, education level and income level had significant differences in some aspects of low-carbon tourism cognition and participation willingness, especially education level. On this basis, several corresponding strategies were put forward for managing the cognitive differences of the different types, which could contribute to the realization of the carbon neutral vision of tourism.     

Implementing Europe's climate targets at the regional level

Having agreed upon a binding emissions reduction path by 2020, the EU plays a leading role in international climate policy. The EU currently pursues a dual approach through an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) at the EU level and also via national targets in sectors not covered by the ETS. The latter include the buildings sector, transportation, agriculture, and waste. Emissions from these sectors are mainly subject to policies at provincial and local levels. A method is presented for elaborating and implementing a long-term climate policy process up to 2030 for the regional (provincial) level. Building on regional GHG inventory data, a set of indicators for each sector is developed in order to arrive at a target path consistent with the deduced regional GHG reduction requirement. Policy measures and their implementation are then settled subsequent to this process. Quantitative regional targets are found to be a prerequisite for the formation of regional climate policy as they increase participant responsibility and commitment. A five-step process of stakeholder participation ensures effective implementation of regional climate action plans. Insights from an exemplary European region are drawn upon, and policy issues are discussed in both quantitative and institutional terms.     

Efficiency of policy instruments for CCS deployment

Policy instruments for carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology investment during the learning phase are analysed and compared. The focus is on specific barriers to investment in learning during early commercial deployment. Imperfections in the carbon price signal and market failures from barriers indicate a need for support during the learning investment phase and the initial roll out of CCS in electricity generation. Different ways for CCS technology to cross the so-called investment ‘death valley’ are analysed and compared: a command and control instrument (CCS mandate), investment support (grant, tax credit, loan guarantee, subsidy by trust fund) and production subsidies (guaranteed carbon price, feed-in price, etc.). Three criteria are used in this comparison: effectiveness, static efficiency and dynamic efficiency. Policy instruments need to be adapted to the technological and commercial maturity of the CCS system. Mandate policies require handling with much care, and subsidization mechanisms must be designed to be market-oriented.     

China's role in attaining the global 2°C target

In the recent climate change negotiations it was declared that the increase in global temperature should be kept below 2°C by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels. China's CO₂ emissions from energy and cement processes already account for nearly 24% of global emissions, a trend that is expected to keep increasing. Thus the role of China in global GHG mitigation is crucial. A scenario analysis of China's CO₂ emissions is presented here and the feasibility of China reaching a low-carbon scenario is discussed. The results suggest that recent and continued technological progress will make it possible for China to limit its CO₂ emissions and for these emissions to peak before 2025 and therefore that the global 2°C target can be achieved.

Policy relevance

In signing the Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to the global 2°C target. Results from this article could be used to justify low-carbon development policies and negotiations. While many still doubt the feasibility of a low-carbon pathway to support the global 2°C target, the results suggest that such a pathway can be realistically achieved. This conclusion should increase confidence and guide the policy framework further to make possible China's low-carbon development. Related policies and measures, such as renewable energy development, energy efficiency, economic structure optimization, technology innovation, low-carbon investment, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) development, should be further enhanced. Furthermore, China can play a larger role in the international negotiations process. In the global context, the 2°C target could be reaffirmed and a global regime on an emissions mitigation protocol could be framed with countries’ emissions target up to 2050.     

Low-carbon societies: a challenging transition for an attractive future

The Low-Carbon Society (LCS) research project (Strachan et al., 2008a) is examined for its insights about the scale, nature and timing of the deployment of low-carbon technologies. In addition to ‘carbon price only’ policies, other incentives and demand-side efforts are needed in order to embed climate policies into broader development approaches. The question of what constitutes transition pathways is considered. Fundamental institutional, individual and social changes are needed to accompany economic and technological change as energy is embedded in overall development patterns. The cost assessment of decarbonization policies may be too optimistic if it is only considered as the final outcome of a LCS, and if the inevitable hindrances and setbacks along the transition pathway are disregarded. The significance of transition costs is highlighted, together with their causes: social and short- and medium-term economic costs and adjustments in macroeconomic dynamics. Although the overall welfare costs of LCS are likely to be smaller than the benefits (including the co-benefits), a clear and realistic understanding of potential transition difficulties is necessary in order to define the robust policy mix needed to underpin it.     

Towards a low-carbon economy: scenarios and policies for the UK

This article analyses the implications of long-term low-carbon scenarios for the UK, and against these it assesses both the current status and the required scope of the UK energy policy. The scenarios are generated using the well-established MARKAL (acronym for MARKet ALlocation) UK energy systems model, which has already been extensively used for UK policy analysis and support. The scenarios incorporate different levels of ambition for carbon reduction, ranging from 40% to 90% cuts from 1990's level by the year 2050, to shed insights into the options for achieving the UK's current legally binding target of an 80% cut by the same date. The scenarios achieve their carbon reductions through very different combinations of demand reduction (implying behaviour change) and implementation of low-carbon and energy efficiency technologies on both the supply and demand sides. In all cases, however, the costs of achieving the reductions are relatively modest. The ensuing policy analysis suggests that while the cuts are feasible both technically and economically and while a number of new policies have been introduced in order to achieve them, it is not yet clear whether these policies will deliver the required combination of both short- and long-term technology deployment, and behaviour change for the UK Government's targets to be achieved.     

Meeting Report

Top-down economic approaches theoretically show that placing a price on carbon can reduce emissions. Responses by firms to these policies, however, are less well understood and are critical for understanding the effectiveness of price-based carbon policy. This article provides an analysis of firm-level responses to the carbon tax in British Columbia (BC) through empirical research of grey literature, industry participation, and interviews with executives of major emitting firms in BC. The article highlights the empirical responses to the tax by firms, who experience difficulty in making low-carbon changes in response to fluctuating commodity prices, the low certainty of climate policy over temporal and spatial scales, and the political economy of implementing regional climate policy. It also highlights the importance of understanding firm-level responses as a complementary approach to macro-economic policy making on carbon pricing. The article shows the importance of engaging decision makers in corporations to understand how carbon is governed in light of emerging climate policy.

Policy relevance

This article is relevant to policy makers implementing carbon-pricing initiatives by illustrating the need to complement macroeconomic models with firm-level response analysis. It also demonstrates the key concerns of executives in a resource extractive economy and the ability of a carbon price, and the need for complementary technology funds and policy, to affect change in industrial emissions.     

低碳视角下城市空间形态紧凑度研究

全球气候变化背景下,构建功能紧凑的低碳城市空间形态已成为世界各地城市实现低碳化可持续发展的主要途径之一。但目前的城市形态研究主要集中在城市外部空间,缺乏对城市内部功能空间紧凑度的量化。从实现低碳城市的视角,提出了城市内部功能空间形态紧凑度的量化指标,用以探讨实现低碳城市的城市空间形态特征;以商业、医疗、教育和文化娱乐等4种重要服务设施布局为基础,构建了城市功能空间紧凑度指数,对不同规模、不同地理条件类型的8个案例城市进行定量研究,实证了城市内部“功能空间紧凑度”指标较城市外部“形态紧凑度”指标能够更好的反映城市形态的紧凑性内涵,适用于评价各类城市空间形态的低碳发展模式。