Facilitating linkage of climate policies through the Paris outcome

The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action negotiations are likely to lead to a Paris outcome that embodies a hybrid climate policy architecture, combining top-down elements, such as for monitoring, reporting, and verification, with bottom-up elements, including ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contributions’ from participating countries, detailing plans to reduce emissions, based on national circumstances. For such a system to be cost-effective – and thus more likely to embody greater ambition – a key feature will be linkages among regional, national, and sub-national climate policies. By linkage, we mean formal recognition by a mitigation programme in one jurisdiction of emission reductions undertaken in another jurisdiction for the purposes of complying with the first jurisdiction's requirements. The Paris outcome could play at least four different roles with respect to linkage of heterogeneous policy instruments. First, it could discourage linkage, either by not allowing countries to count international transfers toward their mitigation contributions, or by limiting the number or types of transferred units that can be counted for compliance purposes. Second, it could be silent on the topic of linkage, creating legal and regulatory uncertainty about whether international transfers are allowed. Third, it could expressly authorize linkage but not provide any further details about how linkage should occur, leaving it to future United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiating sessions to work out the details or to national governments to develop bilateral or multilateral linkage arrangements. Finally, the Paris outcome could establish institutional arrangements and rules that facilitate and promote linkage. We examine how a future international policy architecture could help facilitate the growth and operation of a robust system of international linkages. Several design elements merit serious consideration for inclusion in the Paris outcome, either in the core agreement or by establishing a process for subsequent international elaboration. At the same time, including detailed linkage rules in the core agreement is not desirable because this could make it difficult for rules to evolve in light of experience.

Policy relevance

These findings have implications for the efficient and effective design of an international climate policy architecture by detailing the role that linkage can play in supporting heterogeneous climate policies at the regional, national, and sub-national levels.     

Linkage of greenhouse gas emissions trading systems: learning from experience

The last ten years have seen the growth of linkages between many of the world's cap-and-trade systems for GHGs, both directly between systems, and indirectly via connections to credit systems such as the Clean Development Mechanism. If nations have tried to act in their own self-interest, this proliferation of linkages implies that for many nations, the expected benefits of linkage outweighed expected costs. In this article, we draw on the past decade of experience with carbon markets to examine why systems have demonstrated this revealed preference for linking. Linkage is a multi-faceted policy decision that can be used by political jurisdictions to achieve a variety of objectives, and we find qualitative evidence that many economic, political, and strategic factors – ranging from geographic proximity to integrity of emissions reductions – influence the decision to link. We also identify some potentially important effects of linkage, such as loss of control over domestic carbon policies, which do not appear to have deterred real-world decisions to link.

Policy relevance

These findings have implications for the future role that decentralized linkages may play in international climate policy architecture. The Kyoto Protocol has entered what is probably its final commitment period, covering only a small fraction of global GHG emissions. Under the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, negotiators may now gravitate toward a hybrid system, combining top-down elements for establishing targets with bottom-up elements of pledge-and-review tied to national policies and actions. The incentives for linking these national policies are likely to continue to produce direct connections among regional, national, and sub-national cap-and-trade systems. The growing network of decentralized, direct linkages among these systems may turn out to be a key part of a future hybrid climate policy architecture.     

利用城市骨架线网的道路和居民地联动匹配方法

同名道路或者居民地数据间由于数据一致性程度不高,往往存在较大的几何位置偏差,当对道路或者居民地单独进行匹配时,不利于提高匹配正确率和效率。针对这一问题,本文提出了一种利用城市骨架线网的道路和居民地联动匹配方法。联动匹配即模仿人在读图时通过特征地物和空间关联寻找目标地物的思维过程,将匹配看作是一种特征目标寻找、信息关联传递的推理过程。首先,利用约束Delaunay三角网对地图构建城市骨架线网。然后,通过道路、骨架线、骨架线网眼和居民地之间的拓扑关系建立道路和居民地之间的匹配传递模型。最后,根据该传递模型实现通过道路匹配带动居民地匹配或者通过居民地匹配带动道路匹配的联动匹配。该方法优势在于只要有一种要素的数据一致性比较好,就能带动另一种要素取得很好的匹配效果,同时符合人类进行匹配时的认知过程。     

顾及上下级空间关系相似性的道路网联动匹配方法

现有道路网匹配方法中,大多利用道路自身结点和弧段特征进行匹配,而较少注意道路邻域要素在道路网匹配中的重要定位参考作用,从而影响匹配效率和正确率的进一步提高。针对上述问题,本文提出了一种顾及上下级空间关系相似性的道路网联动匹配方法,即模仿人在读图时通过特征地物和空间关联寻找目标地物的思维过程,将匹配看作是一种特征目标寻找、信息关联传递的推理过程。首先,运用Stroke技术将复杂道路网进行等级划分。其次,通过道路骨架关联关系树构建道路网联动匹配模型。最后,选取高等级骨干道路作为起始特征对象,计算道路间的上下级空间关系相似性,逐级迭代使匹配信息在道路网联动匹配模型中传递,从而得到匹配结果。试验表明,本文算法缩小了待匹配数据的搜索范围,能够有效提高匹配正确率和效率,尤其在数据位移较大、存在非系统性几何位置偏差的情况下优势明显。     

Economic vulnerability to Peak Oil

Peak Oil, which refers to the maximum possible global oil production rate, is increasingly gaining attention in both science and policy discourses. However, little is known about how this phenomenon will impact economies, despite its apparent imminence and potential dangers. In this paper, we construct a vulnerability map of the U.S. economy, combining two approaches for analyzing economic systems, i.e. input–output analysis and social network analysis (applied to economic data). Our approach reveals the relative importance of individual economic sectors, and how vulnerable they are to oil price shocks. As such, our dual-analysis helps identify which sectors, due to their strategic position, could put the entire U.S. economy at risk from Peak Oil. For the U.S., such sectors would include Iron Mills, Fertilizer Production and Transport by Air. Our findings thus provide early warnings to downstream companies about potential ‘trouble’ in their supply chain, and inform policy action for Peak Oil. Although our analysis is embedded in a Peak Oil narrative, it is just as valid and useful in the context of developing a climate roadmap toward a low carbon economy.     

中国陆港型物流枢纽时空演化及其驱动因素

从多维度解析陆港型物流枢纽的发展机理,运用2001―2018年面板数据测度中国陆港型物流枢纽的综合发展实力,并采用空间分析、基尼系数等方法揭示枢纽的空间格局及演化特征,探究中国陆港型物流枢纽发展的主要驱动因素。研究发现：① 枢纽实力在胡焕庸线两侧呈现明显的分异特征,东南部地区枢纽总体比西北部地区发展更成熟、更稳定;② 枢纽发展的空间差异较为明显,且差异程度在不断增加;③ 基础设施和物流运营对枢纽的基尼系数贡献较大,但信息技术的影响提升更加明显;④ 人口规模、金融发展和外部环境因素促进枢纽发展,经济实力、教育水平和政府投资对不同等级枢纽的影响不尽相同。     

湛江发展现代物流业的构想与措施

物流业是现代经济发展中的一个重要产业部门,对一个国家和地区的经济发展起到了巨大的推动作用。在分析物流业对经济影响的基础上,剖析了湛江市目前物流业发展状况及其存在的问题,并针对所存在的问题,提出了湛江市发展现代物流业的构想与措施。     

区域物流空间整合研究——基于长三角一体化的实证

随着经济全球化和信息化的快速发展,现代物流业的发展水平逐渐成为衡量一个国家或地区综合竞争力的重要标志,但近年来长三角地区现代物流规划不统一,空间布局和要素配置不合理等问题明显,严重制约了区域物流的联动发展。据此,以长三角为研究对象,在区域经济一体化背景下,运用GIS、变异系数及区位商等区域分析方法,分析了长三角区域物流的空间结构及演进特征,并在此基础上分析制约区域物流联动发展的主要问题,提出区域物流空间整合的对策建议,认为长三角地区应从物流基础设施建设、园区网络化空间布局、物流信息一体化、大通关建设一体化、区域物流协调机构构建及物流专业人才培养几个方面推动区域物流的空间整合进程。     

城市物流竞争力评价方法研究

城市物流是城市经济建设的重要组成部分,大力发展城市物流对于改进和提高城市经济运行质量、完善城市现代化功能、提升城市综合竞争力都具有十分重要的意义。城市物流系统作为一个完整的系统,要对其运转绩效进行评价,必须把整个系统划分成不同的层面,分析不同层面的特点及影响因素,分别提出合适的定性指标和定量指标,以利于科学、方便地评估城市物流竞争力。结合Delphi法、AHP、多层次模糊判断等多种评价方法,介绍了一种综合评算法,能够考虑影响城市物流的不同因素,包括城市物流基础设施层、相关主体层、服务保障层3个方面,以定性和定量相结合的方法对城市物流的竞争力水平进行了客观合理的比较与评价。     

湛江发展现代物流业的构想与措施

物流业是现代经济发展中的一个重要产业部门，对一个国家和地区的经济发展起到了巨大的推动作用。在分析物流业对经济影响的基础上．剖析了湛江市目前物流业发展状况及其存在的问题，并针。对所存在的问题，提出了湛江市发展现代物流业的构想与措施。