Effect of heteroscedasticity and heterogeneousness on outlier detection for geodetic networks

The robustness of an outlier detection method strongly depends on the weights of observations, i.e., the type of the stochastic model applied (homoscedasticity, heteroscedasticity and heterogeneousness). In this paper, we have investigated how the reliability of the robust methods and tests for outliers changes depending on the weights of the observations in geodetic networks. Furthermore, the contribution of the directions and distances to horizontal control network with regard to reliability are investigated separately. The concept of a breakdown point is used as a global measure of robustness against outliers. The mean success rate (MSR) is found to be a practical tool for confirming the breakdown point. Many different “good” data samples are generated for each network and then deliberately contaminated using a Monte-Carlo simulation. Six robust methods and Baarda’s test are applied to the corrupted samples and the degree of corruption is varied. The performance of each method is measured using both local and global MSRs. Our research shows: (1) The MSRs of Baarda’s test change depending on the strength of the heteroscedasticity, but do not change for trilateration and leveling networks, (2) the global MSRs of robust methods do not differ considerably from the local ones     

GALILEO系统完备性指标SISMA的计算和分析

利用GALILEO全球监测网络和中国地壳运动监测网络分别对GALILEO系统完备性指标SISMA进行仿真计算。结果表明,全球完备性监测SISMA结果不稳定,随地理位置的变化较大,不能满足局部地区的生命安全服务要求;利用适当布设的局域监测网络进行的SISMA局域监测数值稳定,变化较小,结果明显优于全球SISMA监测结果,可以满足生命安全服务要求,可信度达到100%。在我国进行局域SISMA监测,是对全球完备性监测进行的有效和必要补充,提高系统的可用性和定位可信度。     

基于地震同相轴预测的剩余静校正方法研究

为解决野外地表参数测定不准确等因素引起的地震数据剩余静校正问题,通过平面波分解滤波器计算时空变地震同相轴局部倾角,利用局部倾角与同相轴的时空预测量之间的关系计算剩余静校正量,在剩余静校正量计算所需局部平面波方程求解过程中,加入时间方向倾角为常数的整形正则化约束条件,以保证剩余静校正方法的准确性。结果表明,基于地震同相轴预测的剩余静校正方法可以有效地处理共中心点道集数据的剩余静校正问题,同时本方法具有一定的抗噪能力,为实际资料处理提供了较好的适用性。     

像方和物方结合的线阵卫星核线影像生成方法

针对线阵卫星影像核线纠正问题,本文简要分析了现有方法的优劣势,并在此基础上提出一种将基于像方和物方相结合的核线纠正方法。其分为两步：首先在影像空间内对左影像进行分块并逐区域纠正,利用局部仿射拟合的方法实现左影像的核线纠正;然后利用物方投影基准面生成与左影像分辨率一致的右核线影像。试验结果表明,本文方法既能获取上下视差接近于零且优于对比方法的核线影像产品,又能够保证核线影像左右视差与高程的线性比例关系,尤其是3组较大核线曲率数据试验结果,证实了本文方法具有较好的稳健性和适用性,能够较好地应用到不同传感器的数据处理系统中。     

基于无人机影像密集匹配点云的传统村落地面点提取及DEM生成——以湘西德夯村为例

目前,针对利用无人机技术在山地起伏大、山体植被密集区域,难以获取地面点及DEM等问题,本文提出了一种结合布料模拟算法和改进的局部最大值算法,利用树顶点、树高等植被信息,提取地面点,进而生成整个区域的DEM的方法。以中国传统村落德夯村为例,利用植被系数和高程信息将点云分割为植被密集区和非植被密集区两个部分。在非植被密集区,通过布料模拟算法和改进的局部最大值算法分别提取地面点和树顶点,计算平均树高;在植被密集区,通过该区域的树顶点推算得到植被密集区的近似地面点,最终将两部分的地面点云进行TIN插值得到该地区的DEM。试验结果表明,利用此方法生成的DEM均方根误差,在非植被密集区达0.037 m,植被密集区可达1.606 m,整体平均误差达1.492 m,总体精度较好,基本可以满足村落尺度空间分析的需求。     

Determination of the Backward Predictability Limit and Its Relationship with the Forward Predictability Limit

In this work, two types of predictability are proposed—forward and backward predictability—and then applied in the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent approach to the Lorenz63 and Lorenz96 models to quantitatively estimate the local forward and backward predictability limits of states in phase space. The forward predictability mainly focuses on the forward evolution of initial errors superposed on the initial state over time, while the backward predictability is mainly concerned with when the given state can be predicted before this state happens. From the results, there is a negative correlation between the local forward and backward predictability limits. That is, the forward predictability limits are higher when the backward predictability limits are lower, and vice versa. We also find that the sum of forward and backward predictability limits of each state tends to fluctuate around the average value of sums of the forward and backward predictability limits of sufficient states.Furthermore, the average value is constant when the states are sufficient. For different chaotic systems, the average value is dependent on the chaotic systems and more complex chaotic systems get a lower average value. For a single chaotic system,the average value depends on the magnitude of initial perturbations. The average values decrease as the magnitudes of initial perturbations increase.     

基于RMAPS的一次局地强降水过程成因分析

2017年8月8日午夜,天津北辰区出现局地短时强降水,小时雨强超过70mm·h~(-1)。利用RMAPS(Rapidrefresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System)和观测资料,通过多种资料叠加、雷达回波参数量化和低层风场反演等方法分析了降水成因,结果表明:①降水是由M_βCS(Meso-β-scale Convective System)后向传播过程中尾部的多单体雷暴造成的,传播过程中单体合并对雷暴系统的结构及增强有重要影响,合并后系统的回波体积参数V_(40)(反射率≥40dBz的体积)增长了23.3%,在V_(40)增长之前,变率参数F_(V40-up6)(6km以上40dBz回波体积6min的变化)出现了"突降",这对雷暴系统即将发展有预警意义;②冷池出流与地面东南风形成的辐合线是对流系统维持的关键,中低层切变线也为对流的发生发展提供了有利的动力条件;伴随着强降水,对流有效位能CAPE由峰值急速下降,低层垂直风切变指数α骤增,这揭示了不稳定能量、垂直风切变与对流过程之间的关系;③降水落区与不稳定参数SWEAT的大值区对应,预警时间3h,来自渤海的地面暖湿带与假相当位温密集带的交汇处也是落区临近预报的关注点。     

Power interplay between actors: using material and ideational resources to shape local adaptation plans of action (LAPAs) in Nepal

Deliberation over how to adapt to short or long-term impacts of climate change takes place in a complex political setting, where actors’ interests and priorities shape the temporal dimension of adaptation plans, policies and actions. As actors interact to pursue their individual or collective interests, these struggles turn into dynamic power interplay. In this article, we aim to show how power interplay shapes local adaptation plans of action (LAPAs) in Nepal to be short-term and reactive. We use an interactional framing approach through interaction analyses and observations to analyse how actors use material and ideational resources to pursue their interests. Material and ideational resources that an actor deploys include political authority, knowledge of adaptation science and national/local policy-making processes, financial resources and strong relations with international non-governmental organizations and donor agencies. We find that facilitators and local politicians have a very prominent role in meetings relating to LAPAs, resulting in short-termism of LAPAs. Findings suggest that there is also a lack of female participation contributing to short-term orientated plans. We conclude that such power interplay analysis can help to investigate how decision making on the temporal aspects of climate adaptation policy takes place at the local level.

Key policy insights

• Short-termism of LAPAs is attributed to the power interplay between actors during the policy design process.

• Improved participation of the most vulnerable, especially women, can lead to the preparation of adaptation plans and strategies focusing on both the short and long-term.

• It is pertinent to consider power interplay in the design and planning of adaptation policy in order to create a level-playing field between actors for inclusive decision-making.

• Analysis of dynamic power interplay can help in investigating climate change adaptation controversies that are marked by uncertainties and ambiguities.

     

中国地区城市热岛环流研究进展

城市热岛环流是由城市热岛激发的、存在于边界层的局地环流。这一环流常影响城市区域污染物的扩散及城市降水,是城市气象学的重点研究对象。在过去30多年间,中国城市热岛环流的研究不断取得突破,研究成果丰富。为了今后更有效地开展相关研究,本文从观测分析、理论与数值模拟研究两方面,回顾并总结了我国在热岛环流研究方面取得的成果,包括热岛环流的时空特征、产生机制,以及热岛环流与其他局地环流的相互作用。此外,本文总结了热岛环流对城市及其周边地区污染物水平和垂直分布的影响。