国内价值链构建下地方产业集群升级机理研究

承接产业转移是广大中西部地区的重大发展机遇。在分析全球价值链(GVC)的基础上,立足于我国经济梯度,提出了构建国内价值链(NVC)的基本思路。根据劳动力、资源、市场和区位等不同要素,明确了国内价值链主要划分为生产者驱动价值链、购买者驱动价值链、原材料驱动价值链和混合驱动价值链4种形式,重点分析了在不同价值链下地方产业集群升级的重点和方向,提出了不同的地方产业集群升级模式和内在机理。     

北京高科技产业集群衍生效应及其影响分析——基于中关村科技园区的案例研究

以北京高科技产业集群衍生效应的分析为核心,将衍生效应分为两大类:企业衍生效应和技术衍生效应.通过实证研究.分析出衍生效应的主要表现形式,并以此为基础设定分析标准,用以反映北京高科技产业集群的发展特点.研究发现:衍生效应能够提升竞争优势和智力资源的利用效率,对高科技产业集群的发展有积极意义;同时,衍生效应能够强化集群专业化分工,促进技术扩散;技术衍生效应能促进企业规模化和专业化,而企业衍生效应强化了集群内部的竞争,能促进技术创新和研发投入.     

基于自组织理论的旅游产业结构协调发展研究

旅游产业结构是一个不断发展的动态系统结构,旅游产业各部门的协调发展对地区旅游业的健康发展具有重大意义。文章将自组织理论引入到旅游产业结构研究中,分析了旅游产业结构系统的自组织性,构建以实现产业结构协调发展为目标的旅游产业自组织理论,探讨实现旅游产业结构自组织的途径,最终目标是建立以旅游业的食、住、行、游、购、娱等部门组成的耗散结构,进而实现旅游产业结构协调发展。     

中国工业烟粉尘排放时空演化及其影响因素

采用空间分析和空间杜宾模型等方法,研究1999—2017年中国工业烟粉尘排放时空演化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:①中国工业烟粉尘排放空间分布差异明显,其排放的基尼系数和污染物分布指数均呈现下降态势,空间集中程度有所缓和。②中国工业烟粉尘排放空间分布呈东北-西南走向,其排放中心不断由东南向西北方向迁移。③中国工业烟粉尘排放存在空间相关性和空间溢出效应,其冷热点区空间分布发生显著变化。④能源消耗、第二产业比重、人口密度和经济发展水平的提升将会增加工业烟粉尘排放,而外资水平、治理技术水平和环境规制力度的提升则有利于减少工业烟粉尘排放。     

全国基准产业集群识别及在区域经济分析中的应用——以北京市为例

全国基准产业集群反映一国产业技术经济联系的一般特征,可以作为模板应用于区域集群分析。本研究首次识别我国基准产业集群,为我国的区域集群实证研究提供集群模板。以识别的基准产业集群为模板,本研究分析了北京市制造业集群的发展现状,并以北京市电子及通信设备制造业集群为例分析了该集群的组成结构及空间布局。分析发现,北京市目前已形成三个规模较大,并具有区域专业化优势的制造业集群:电子及通信设备制造、汽车及装备制造和电子元器件制造业集群。北京市电子及通信设备制造业集群的优势环节是通信设备制造和其他通信、电子设备制造业,其配套产业环节电子元器件和其他电气机械及器材制造业仍相对较弱。在空间上,北京市电子及通信设备制造业集群主要分布在城市近郊地区,朝阳、海淀、大兴区是集群环节配套较为完善的区域。     

中国民营上市企业总部空间格局及影响因素

民营企业是拉动中国经济发展的重要力量,分析民营上市企业总部的空间格局及影响因素,对了解民营企业发展现状,促进中国经济可持续发展具有重要意义。通过分析2008—2017年中国民营上市企业数据,研究发现：①以长三角为代表的华东地区是中国民营上市企业主要集聚区,但所占比重在下降,而以京津冀为代表的华北地区近年来发展较快,全国民营上市企业重心略向北移动。②中国民营上市企业以第二产业为主,第三产业占比呈上升趋势,但远低于第二产业,第三产业热点城市明显较少,空间集聚性也较弱;第一产业占比很少,仅在1%左右。③中国民营上市企业第二产业和第三产业存在向长三角、珠三角和京津冀经济圈的大城市聚集的趋势。④社会消费品零售总额和GDP是影响中国民营上市企业营业收入的主要因素,相对于第二产业,第三产业的主要影响因素更为多变。     

基于时间序列法的北京市需水量预报(英文)

It is essential to establish the water resources exploitation and utilization planning,which is mainly based on recognizing and forecasting the water consumed structure rationally and scientifically.During the past 30 years(1980-2009),mean annual precipitation and total water resource of Beijing have decreased by 6.89% and 31.37% compared with those perennial values,respectively,while total water consumption during the same period reached pinnacle historically.Accordingly,it is of great significance for the harmony between socio-economic development and environmental development.Based on analyzing total water consumption,agricultural,industrial,domestic and environmental water consumption,and evolution of water consumed structure,further driving forces of evolution of total water consumption and water consumed structure are revealed systematically.Prediction and discussion are achieved for evolution of total water consumption,water consumed structure,and supply-demand situation of water resource in the near future of Beijing using Time Series Forecasting Method.The purpose of the endeavor of this paper is to provide scientific basis for the harmonious development between socio-economy and water resources,for the establishment of rational strategic planning of water resources,and for the social sustainable development of Beijing with scientific bases.     

中国省际工业生态效率空间分布及影响因素研究

将中国30省市（不含港、澳、台和西藏地区）作为研究对象,进行省际工业生态效率空间分布及影响因素研究。首先构建中国省际工业生态效率评价指标体系,其次利用DEA-BCC模型结合Malmquist指数对2006~2015年中国30省市在时空两个维度上的工业生态效率进行测算,再次运用Geoda软件分析中国工业生态效率的空间分布特征,最后通过空间误差模型对中国工业生态效率的影响因素进行检验。研究结果表明：① 中国工业生态效率虽呈现小幅度下降趋势,但整体效率水平较高;30省市之间存在明显差异性,呈现出东部>中部>西部的分布格局。② 中国工业生态效率Malmquist指数增长率水平较高;30省市Malmquist指数均为正向增长,呈现出稳定增长趋势;技术进步效率是Malmquist指数的主要推动力。③ 中国30省市工业生态效率呈现正向空间自相关性,且存在明显的集聚状态,近邻效应显著。④ 中国省际工业生态效率的主要影响因素有经济发展水平、产业结构、政府规制、技术进步、外商投资和产业集聚。     

A density-based approach for detecting network-constrained clusters in spatial point events

Existing spatial clustering methods primarily focus on points distributed in planar space. However, occurrence locations and background processes of most human mobility events within cities are constrained by the road network space. Here we describe a density-based clustering approach for objectively detecting clusters in network-constrained point events. First, the network-constrained Delaunay triangulation is constructed to facilitate the measurement of network distances between points. Then, a combination of network kernel density estimation and potential entropy is executed to determine the optimal neighbourhood size. Furthermore, all network-constrained events are tested under a null hypothesis to statistically identify core points with significantly high densities. Finally, spatial clusters can be formed by expanding from the identified core points. Experimental comparisons performed on the origin and destination points of taxis in Beijing demonstrate that the proposed method can ascertain network-constrained clusters precisely and significantly. The resulting time-dependent patterns of clusters will be informative for taxi route selections in the future.     

2D Fokker–Planck models of rotating clusters

Globular clusters rotate significantly, and with the increasing amount of detailed morphological and kinematical data obtained in recent years on galactic globular clusters many interesting features show up. We show how our theoretical evolutionary models of rotating clusters can be used to obtain fits, which at least properly model the overall rotation and its implied kinematics in full 2D detail (dispersions, rotation velocities). Our simplified equal mass axisymmetric rotating model provides detailed two-dimensional kinematical and morphological data for star clusters. The degree of rotation is not dominant in energy, but also non-negligible for the phase-space distribution function, shape and kinematics of clusters. Therefore, the models are well applicable for galactic globular clusters. Since previously published papers on that matter by us made it difficult to do detailed comparisons with observations, we provide a much more comprehensive and easy-to-use set of data here, which uses as entries dynamical age and flattening of observed cluster and then offers a limited range of applicable models in full detail. The method, data structure and some exemplary comparison with observations are presented. Future work will improve modelling and data base to take a central black hole, a mass spectrum and stellar evolution into account.