Nonlinear determinism in river flow: prediction as a possible indicator

Whether or not river flow exhibits nonlinear determinism remains an unresolved question. While studies on the use of nonlinear deterministic methods for modeling and prediction of river flow series are on the rise and the outcomes are encouraging, suspicions and criticisms of such studies continue to exist as well. An important reason for this situation is that the correlation dimension method, used as a nonlinear determinism identification tool in most of those studies, may possess certain limitations when applied to real river flow series, which are always finite and often short and also contaminated with noise (e.g. measurement error). In view of this, the present study addresses the issue of nonlinear determinism in river flow series using prediction as a possible indicator. This is done by (1) reviewing studies that have employed nonlinear deterministic methods (coupling phase‐space reconstruction and local approximation techniques) for river flow predictions and (2) identifying nonlinear determinism (or linear stochasticity) based on the level of prediction accuracy in general, and on the prediction accuracy against the phase‐space reconstruction parameters in particular (termed as the ‘inverse approach’). The results not only provide possible indications to the presence of nonlinear determinism in the river flow series studied, but also support, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the low correlation dimensions reported for such. Therefore, nonlinear deterministic methods are a viable complement to linear stochastic ones for studying river flow dynamics, if sufficient caution is exercised in their applications and in interpreting the outcomes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of azimuth and slowness of tele-seismic signals recorded by a local seismic network

Introduction The azimuth and slowness are two major features of seismic signals. The accurate estimation of them is quite important for both phase identification and event location. Generally, there are two types of seismic stations, i.e. 3-component stations (3C) and arrays. To estimate the two direc-tional parameters, the polarization analysis (Jurkevics, 1988) is commonly used for 3C stations and the frequency-wavenumber spectrum analysis ( f-k) (Capon, 1969; Kvaerna, Doornbos, 1986) is …     

论地方地震科研工作的制约因素及改革对策

本文列据说明地方地震科技队伍是一支重要力量，但与专业地震科学队伍相比较，因制约因素多，存在很大差距，要发挥地方地震科学队伍的作用，必须走改革之路，在认识上、组织上、步调上应该协调统一，以达到专群，上下真正结合。     

任意载荷激励下直角三角形板单元局部动力效应

本文推导了在任意载荷激励下直角三角形板单元局部动力效应修正公式。采用单边积分法，对单元边上的单位宽度上的内力进行局部动力修正，代替以往的用加密网格提高精度的方法。计算结果表明，局部动力效应影响不可忽略，本文方法可使计算结果更为精确。这对分析大型复杂结构环境载荷激励下的局部动力效应具有参考价值。     

The relationships between earthquakes and positions of the sun and moon（Ⅱ）——Sometemporalcharacteristicsoftheaftershocksequencesofstrongearthquakes

Ｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓｈｉｐｓｂｅｔｗｅｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓａｎｄｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｔｈｅｓｕｎａｎｄｍｏｏｎ（Ⅱ）——Ｓｏｍｅｔｅｍｐｏｒａｌｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｔｈｅａｆｔｅｒｓｈｏｃｋｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓｏｆｓｔｒｏｎｇｅ...     

Three dimensional velocity structure beneath the Kunming Telemetered Seismic Network

Ｔｈｒｅｅ　ｄｉｍｅｎｓｉｏｎａｌ　ｖｅｌｏｃｉｔｙ　ｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅ　ｂｅｎｅａｔｈ　ｔｈｅ　Ｋｕｎｍｉｎｇ　Ｔｅｌｅｍｅｔｅｒｅｄ　Ｓｅｉｓｍｉｃ　Ｎｅｔｗｏｒｋ（王椿镛）（王溪莉）（颜其中）Ｔｈｒｅｅｄｉｍｅｎｓｉｏｎａｌｖｅｌｏｃｉｔｙｓｔ...     

A neural network based methodology to predict site-specific spectral acceleration values

A general neural network based methodology that has the potential to replace the computationally-intensive site-specific seismic analysis of structures is proposed in this paper. The basic framework of the methodology consists of a feed forward back propagation neural network algorithm with one hidden layer to represent the seismic potential of a region and soil amplification effects. The methodology is implemented and verified with parameters corresponding to Delhi city in India. For this purpose, strong g...     

Wood retention at inclined racks: Effects on flow and local bedload processes

Large wood (LW) transport can increase greatly during floods, leading to accumulations at river infrastructures. To mitigate the potential flood hazard, racks are a common method to retain LW upstream of endangered settlements or infrastructures. The majority of LW retention racks consist of vertical bars and, therefore, disrupt bedload transport. It can be hypothesized that inclined racks reduce backwater rise and local scour, as wood will block the upper part of the rack, thereby increasing the open flow cross-section below the accumulation. Flume experiments were conducted under clear water conditions to analyse backwater rise and local scour as a function of (1) rack inclination, (2) hydraulic inflow condition, (3) uniform bed material, and (4) LW volume. In addition, the first experiments were performed under live bed scour conditions to study the effect of bedload transport on local scour and backwater rise. Based on the experiments, backwater rise and local scour decrease with decreasing rack angle to the horizontal. LW predominantly accumulated at the upper part of the rack, leading to an open flow cross-section below the accumulation. The effect of rack angle was included in existing design equations for backwater rise and local scour depth. In addition, the first experiments with bedload transport resulted in smaller backwater rise and local scour depth. This study contributes to an enhanced process understanding of wood retention and bedload transport at rack structures and an improved design of LW retention racks. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅析黑龙江省防震减灾地方立法与中央立法的调适

本文从地方立法与中央立法关系的角度,结合《黑龙江省防震减灾条例》修订过程中的一些实际问题,对黑龙江省防震减灾地方立法的定位与发展进行了分析探讨,为黑龙江省防震减灾法制建设完善提供了参考。     

爆炸当量估算的初步研究

爆炸当量是评估爆炸能量的重要参数,快速估算爆炸当量对于有效开展应急救援工作至关重要。收集攀枝花铁矿爆破、宁夏煤矿爆破、河南汝阳钼矿爆破等矿山爆破资料,得到爆破的地方性震级M_L与爆炸当量Y之间的经验关系,并据此估算2019年7月19日河南省三门峡市气化厂爆炸事故的爆炸当量为16 t左右。