IPCC第五次评估报告气候变化对人类福祉影响的新认知

IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）第二工作组（WGII）报告评估了气候变化对人类健康、人类安全、生计与贫困的影响,指出气候变化已经对人类健康和安全造成了负面影响,气候变化、气候变率和极端气候事件给城市和农村的贫困人口增添了额外的负担,与气候变化相关的风险增大。21世纪的气候变化,将继续加剧现有健康问题,增加人类的迁徙,放大冲突的驱动因素的影响,对许多国家的关键基础设施造成不利影响,给小岛国和有很长海岸线国家的领土完整带来风险;整个21世纪,气候变化将减缓经济增长,进一步威胁粮食安全,使减贫更为困难,贫困问题更加突出。     

Could fiscal policies induce green innovation in developing countries? The case of Brazilian manufacturing sectors

Brazil is the first major developing country to pledge for absolute reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This article explores the extent to which fiscal policies could contribute to this reduction and to greening the Brazilian economy. It was found that the use of green fiscal policies is at an early stage in Brazil, but a growing number of measures have been adopted in recent years led by subnational-level policies. An econometric analysis of 24 Brazilian manufacturing sectors for the years 2001–2008 shows that some fiscal instruments, such as low-cost (subsidized) finance for innovation and fiscal incentives for sustainable practices, have been effective in inducing green innovation. However, less than 14% of more than 100 thousand companies included in the study have adopted greener technologies. Even though Brazilian green fiscal policies have been rather uncoordinated and ad hoc, their significant impact on the uptake of green technologies indicates these can play an important role in a transition to a green economy.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Faced with the challenge of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions in absolute terms, Brazil now needs to put in place policies to help deliver the country’s pledge. This article analyses which fiscal policies should be adopted and how these policies could form part of a low carbon policy framework in the country. Among our policy-relevant findings is that subnational green fiscal policies are relatively less complex to introduce and encourage uptake of green technologies. Thus, they could be an entry point to a wider green fiscal policy strategy. We also found that fiscal incentives for green innovation projects can present more than proportional impact on the uptake of green technologies owing to positive feedbacks, increasing returns to scale and spill-overs. These are attractive features of green innovations to developing countries in addition to environmental benefits, as they favour the accumulation of indigenous technological capabilities that are critical for long-term technological and economic development. These lessons learned from green fiscal policies in Brazil are applicable to other developing countries.     

Comprehensive Evaluation of Farm Household Livelihood Assets in a Western Mountainous Area of China: A Case Study in Zunyi City

As the foundation of farm household structure, livelihood asset status is the basis for farmers to gain opportunities, adopt livelihood strategies, resist livelihood risk, and engage in positive livelihood achievements. Quantifying farm household assets identifies future development trends that are fundamentally necessary to predict farm household vulnerability and strategy, as well as understanding farmers’ current living situations. Using Zunyi City in China’s western mountainous area as a case study, we conducted stratified sampling and participatory rural investigation appraisal to collect data on the attributes of farm households’ livelihood assets and livelihood strategies to establish an index evaluation system and enable evaluation and analysis of farm households with different livelihood strategies. Our research indicates that due to structural differences, total livelihood assets of farm households with different livelihood strategies are similar. Rural households have an abundance of natural and material assets and deficiencies in human, financial and social assets. Non-rural households and part- time households are abundant in human, financial and social assets and deficient in natural and material assets.     

Characteristics of nonpoint source pollution load from crop farming in the context of livelihood diversification

Based on objective data collected from interviews in typical villages of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, the present study devised three livelihood scenarios related to rural transformation development: agriculturally dominant livelihood, multiple-type livelihood and non-agriculturally dominant livelihood. Moreover, the present study reports the trend characteristics of nonpoint source pollution load of crop farming in relation to the transformation of dominant livelihood types, and discussed the primary factors which affect livelihood type transformations. Results indicated the following: (1) The current farmland pattern shows a trend of diversification as self-cultivation, cropland transfer and fallow in the sample region. Dynamic characteristics of cultivated land present a special feature that is more “transfer-into” than “transfer-out”. Various scales of planting are represented among the various households, according to the following decreasing order: half-labor household > non-labor household > adequate labor household. (2) The highest pollution loading produced by crop farming occurs in half-labor households while the lowest occurs in non-labor households. With increasing labor, the pollution load per unit area tends to first increase and then decrease within families with enough labor. (3) As the type of livelihood transitions from agriculturally dominant to non-agriculturally dominant, the maximum reduction of total pollution loading produced by the agricultural industry can reach 72.01%. Compared to agriculturally dominant livelihoods, multiple-type livelihoods produce a pollution load reduction yield of 19.61%–29.85%, and non-agriculturally dominant livelihoods reduce the pollution load yield by 35.20%–72.01%. However, the rate of reduction of total nitrogen is not the same as total phosphorus. (4) The non-agricultural characteristics of labor allocation and income promote the transformation from dominant livelihood types to non-agricultural livelihoods, while potential revenue conversion follows a similar trend. In addition, different household types do not display identical conversion rates, according to the following decreasing order: enough labor household > half-labor household > non-labor household. (5) During rapid urbanization and the building of new industrial systems, the livelihood types of rural households have been further transformed to off-farm household types in the mountainous region; this process will lead to the further reduction of pollution load generated by planting and agriculture. Hence, significant decreases in the planting pollution load necessitate the development of control measures to enhance transformations from agricultural to off-farm livelihoods.     

Local Governance for Social Sustainability: equity as a strategic response to neoliberal constraints in food security initiatives

Scholarly literature recognises the importance of social sustainability as part of the wider sustainability agenda. A wide array of concepts such as equity, social justice, democratic government, social inclusion, social capital and quality of life are thought to constitute social sustainability. Local governments are charged with delivering social programs and services to their constituency, but market logics and performance-based institutional cultures, along with limited authority and funding, constrain their capacity to respond to new initiatives. We analyse two case studies in Victoria, Australia, to explore how elements of social sustainability are articulated and operationalised within local government. Each case study involved State-level and local government partnerships in health-promotion initiatives to improve food security. Analysis was conducted on 50 primary policy documents, 22 secondary data documents and 27 interviews. Findings reveal that a systems-based or integrated approach to social sustainability was not workable but not completely ineffective. Equity was prioritised by local government in both case studies, and well acknowledged as interconnected with other social goals. Although constrained in its capacity to deliver new initiatives, local government responded to neoliberalising ideologies, as well as its constituency, by strategically focusing on a particular goal, such as equity.     

Actor-Based Design of a Management System for the Elephant Marsh Fishery in Malawi

In Malawi, fishing community user groups known as beach village committees, traditional chiefs, government officers, and fishers are the key players in fisheries management. Fish catch trends at the Elephant Marsh Fishery in southern Malawi are declining. Based on interviews and participant observation, this article uses an actor-based framework (known as Action-in-Context) to unveil the issues that are crucial in devising a sustainable governance system for the fishery. We establish and propose that the key social variables for the design of a three-pillared (locally based, weak, and amorphous) resilient institution for sustainability of the Elephant Marsh Fishery are (i) the social reputation of the leaders of local fishery institutions (beach village committee leaders), and (ii) the power dynamics between traditional chiefs and these local fishery leaders. We end the article by exploring the implications of the findings on the sustainability of the fishery under rising resource pressure.     

邮轮旅游的负效应与责任性研究综述

邮轮产业已经成为国际旅游和接待业中发展速度最快、经济效益最显著的业务之一。随着全球邮轮市场的东移,中国邮轮业受到了前所未有的关注,已发展成为亚太邮轮市场的核心组成部分。随着邮轮经济的不断深化,邮轮旅游业对中国经济、社会、文化和环境的影响日渐广泛而深远,而邮轮旅游的可持续性与责任性问题将成为该产业发展的重大议题。本文对国内外文献进行整理和分析后发现,目前国内学者对邮轮旅游及其影响的审视还不够深刻,特别是对邮轮旅游业的负效应或负外部性问题没有引起足够关注,研究成果非常有限,研究视角也较为宽泛。本文主要对近15年来国外邮轮旅游可持续性与责任性方面的成果进行了综述,在对邮轮经济的有限性、邮轮旅游对自然环境破坏和社会—文化冲击等方面的成果进行梳理的基础上,提出了“负责任邮轮旅游”的系统结构与行动框架,可为中国今后邮轮旅游业持续、快速与健康发展提供理论指导与实践支持。     

民族地区旅游开发对当地群众民生感的影响——基于旅游公平的视角

基于旅游公平理论,从政府民生活动对当地居民的影响角度提出了"旅游民生感"概念和实际民生感、期望民生感、比较民生感3个测量维度,通过问卷调研数据和对应分析方法进行了实证研究。结果发现:民族地区居民年龄越大对其实际民生感越满意,而工人和中等学历居民则倾向于不满意;对于期望民生感,学生、工人、中低收入和距离景区近的人群趋于不满意;农民的比较民生感趋于满意,而企事业人员、中低收入者、居住地与景区距离居中的人群和高学历人群则对比较民生感趋于不满意。最后,从统筹兼顾、社区公平和弱势群体改善民生诉求3个方面提出了政策建议。     

A model to assess fundamental and realized carrying capacities of island ecosystem: A case study in the southern Miaodao Archipelago of China

Research on carrying capacity, aiming at maintaining the limited ability of the Earth's life supporting system to sustain human development, requires a comprehensive and ecosystem-based approach to monitor and assess the localized sustainability of coupled social and ecological systems. A definition termed the ecosystem-based carrying capacity of island (EBCCI) was developed in this paper of which the indices of fundamental and realized carrying capacities of island (FCCI and RCCI) were highlighted to emphasize the inter-dependencies between social systems and ecological systems. In order to avoid the difficulties and uncertainties of direct assessment, the related assessment model was established on the basis of synthetic evaluation of inherent and external factors affecting the EBCCI. The southern Miaodao Archipelago (SMA) located in the intersection of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, China, was taken as a typical example to acquire integrated recognition of the island ecosystem and its carrying capacity so as to discuss its sustainable development. The index scores of FCCI and RCCI in the SMA were 0.818 5 and 0.712 9 out of 1.0, respectively, with acceptable uncertainties. The results showed a relatively well capacity to sustain progress and relatively well realization of the carrying capacity of island ecosystem, owing to a well capacity of ecologically regulating, general performance of both ecologically supporting and resource provisioning, and a relatively high level of social supporting system. The study implied that it was critical to optimize the inter-dependencies and to sustain the relative balance between social systems and ecological systems so as to improve the RCCI and further facilitate the sustainability of SMA. The approach proposed in this paper provides a powerful tool which is well applicative to the regional level of an oceanic island or archipelago to study the sustainable development and can be further popularized to the coastal zone.     

加强科技创新能力 服务经济社会发展——河南省深部探矿工程技术研究中心创新工作回顾与展望

“十二五”期间,河南省深部探矿工程技术研究中心根据专业学科特点和环境资源新形势,紧密结合生产实际,围绕“加强科技创新能力,服务经济社会发展”的思路和原则,积极开展系列自主创新活动。将空气潜孔锤、气举反循环、孔底螺杆马达、石油钻井、液动潜孔锤、绳索取心等技术根据地层特点进行组合,实现了多工艺钻探技术。在国家应急抗旱救灾、地热清洁能源勘查、复杂地层钻探和钻探相关标准化建设等方面取得了显著成效。结合环境形势和地质工作新常态、利用大地质理念提出了民生地质（工业地质、农业地质、灾害地质、医学地质、新能源地质等）新概念和“十三五”钻探工作的新思路。