Sustainable Livelihood Security in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone: Ecologically Secure,Economically Efficient or Socially Equitable?

Sustainable Livelihood Security (SLS) remains a rarely considered yet important issue for rural sustainability and natural resource management. Particularly in China, rural SLS research in a typical area is urgently needed, but insufficient under the background of National Rural Revitalization and Ten-year Fishing Ban of Yangtze River. Focusing on the policy-targeted inland lake area, we proposed a Livelihood Security Analysis (LSA) framework by establishing an adaptive indicator system and integrating multiple econometrical and geographical methods. This study aims to evaluate the SLS in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone comprehensively from the three aspects of ecology, economy and society, analyze their spatial patterns, identify the main constraints, and finally give specific suggestions for improving rural sustainability management. The results showed that rural SLS in the inland great lake area tended to be vulnerable mainly due to the lagging economic efficiency and unbalanced social equality, and mediated by regional ecological characteristics. The overall SLS and Ecological Security Index (ESI) were higher in the north and lower in the south, while Economic Efficiency Index (EEI) and Social Equality Index (SEI) were at the middle level and circularly distributed around Nanchang City. The dominating factors which have greatly shaped the spatial pattern of SLS include rural per capita electricity consumption, fishery breeding area, population dependency ratio, urbanization rate, and fishery population. The obstacle degree is ranked as economic system > social system > ecological system. An outdated economy and incomplete social services are the main constraints, characterized by weak electricity consumption, limited beds in hospitals, low urbanization rate, deficient agricultural machinery power, and a small agricultural output value. Therefore, one urgent need is to activate the rural economy by reinforcing rural electric power facilities and promoting agricultural mechanization. In addition, transforming the peasants/fishermen to the non-agricultural sector should be accelerated, which will help to reduce ecological pressure, boost urban-rural integration and narrow the income gap.     

An empirical study of the registered population transformation in China’s megacities

From 2020 to 2030, accelerating the “citizenization” of the migrant population is key to promoting urbanization and achieving common prosperity. The urbanization rate of the registered population in China is roughly 18% lower than that of permanent residents. The pressure of the ageing population and the lack of a labor force have caused big cities to introduce relevant policies to attract talent, and the citizenization process needs to be improved urgently, with a particular focus on megacities. The transformation in the number of registered residents in megacities varies greatly, and there is a lack of research on this topic, which makes it an important academic issue. Using both natural and social perspectives, we selected concise indicators and combined the possibility-satisfiability model to estimate the urbanization transformation gap of annual household registration. Further, we constructed a panel data model to empirically analyze the different factors leading to the gap of household registration in megacities. The main factors affecting the transformation of the registered population in megacities are medical services, as well as educational resources and the urban water supply. It is urgent for urban and rural administrators to change the current passive and rigid institutional mechanisms and to ensure flexible, normal governance.     

毛乌素沙地库伦生态经济圈结构、效益及农牧民行为

以户为单位的库伦生态经济圈作为毛乌素沙地牧区最基本的生产单位,与沙地生态系统稳定和区域经济发展密切相关。本文基于鄂托克前旗1986年和2020年户库伦土地利用数据及390户2020年生态经济问卷调查数据,阐明户库伦土地的生态系统服务价值分布规律及不同价值背景下经济圈结构模式、效益和农牧民生计行为的一般特征。结果表明：户库伦生态系统服务价值呈正态分布模式,为0～4.5亿元,其中中低（50万～300万元）及中高（300万～700万元）价值户库伦在全旗所占比例最高（59.04%、23.17%）;低（0～50万元）及高（700万元以上）价值户库伦数较少（12.43%、5.36%）;库伦生态经济圈均为以畜牧为主、农林为辅的农林草畜复合生态产业发展模式,经济效益随库伦土地的生态系统服务价值增加而增大;农牧户消费支出结构具有相似性,农牧业生产投入、礼节性支出和交通费用支出比例较高,占比分别为37.92%、22.71%、13.28%,且随着收入增加渐增;近35年区域生态环境显著改善,极大地提高了农牧户经济效益和生活水平。     

The Dominant Livelihood Types of Farm Households and Their Determinants in Key Ecological Function Areas

The dominant livelihood types of farm households have become increasingly differentiated in recent years, which has attracted the attention of researchers. Identifying the characteristics and driving factors of household livelihood differentiation is of great significance for revealing man-land relationship and policy making. Based on the interview data of farm households in typical villages in key ecological function areas of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in China, we analyzed the pattern of the dominant diversified livelihood types and the livelihood characteristics among different farm households. Then we assessed the driving forces of livelihood diversification by optimal scaling regression. The results indicated that: (1) In the study area, the dominant livelihood types show two trends of agriculturally dominant livelihood (accounting for 53.07%) and non-agriculturally dominant livelihood (accounting for 46.93%). Moreover, farm households in the agro-pastoral areas are mainly agriculturally dominated (accounting for 75.68%), while farm households in the mountainous areas are mainly non-agriculturally dominated (accounting for 66.93%). (2) The labor allocation and income source of different types of farm households are consistent with their dominant livelihood types. The farm households with agriculturally dominant livelihoods have more natural resources than those with non-agriculturally dominant livelihoods. In terms of housing conditions, farm households with agriculturally dominant livelihoods are inferior to those with non-agriculturally dominant livelihoods. (3) The farm labor, dependency ratio, agricultural income, supplemental income and locational conditions have negative impacts on the non-agricultural trend of farm household livelihood decisions, while off-farm labor, non-farm income, education level and the per capita amount of compensation have significant positive impacts on it.     

Imbalance of inter-provincial forest carbon sequestration rate from 2010 to 2060 in China and its regulation strategy

Forest ecosystem, as a predominant component of terrestrial ecosystems in view of carbon sinks, has a high potential for carbon sequestration. Accurately estimating the carbon sequestration rate in forest ecosystems at provincial level, is a prerequisite and basis for scientifically formulating the technical approaches of carbon neutrality and the associated regulatory policies in China. However, few researches on future carbon sequestration rates(CSRs) for Chinese forest ecosystems for provinci...     

Isotopic variation in groundwater across the conterminous United States – Insight into hydrologic processes

Groundwater supplies a significant proportion of water use in the United States and is critical to the maintenance of healthy ecosystems and environmental processes, thus characterizing aquifer hydrology is important to managing and preserving these resources. While groundwater isotopes provide insight into hydrologic and ecologic processes, their application is limited to where measurements exist. To help overcome this limitation, we used the random forest algorithm to develop a predictive model for shallow groundwater isotopes in the conterminous United States. Our model uses environmental variables (e.g. temperature, elevation, precipitation isotopes) as predictors. We used our model to develop the first shallow groundwater isoscape of δ²H and δ¹⁸O for the conterminous United States. We describe the patterns in groundwater isotopes using both observations and our modelled isoscape. We find that throughout much of the Eastern United States, groundwater isotopes are close to annual amount weighted precipitation, while groundwater isotopes are significantly depleted relative precipitation across much of the High Plains and Western United States. Furthermore, we compare the observations compiled for this study to isotopes of precipitation, which allows us to determine the relative recharge efficiency (i.e. ratio of groundwater recharge to precipitation) between seasons and the proportion of annual recharge that occurs in a given season. Our findings suggest that winter recharge is generally more efficient than summer recharge; however, the dominant recharge season is more varied as it is the product of both seasonal recharge efficiency and the seasonal timing of precipitation. Parts of the central United States have summer dominant recharge, which is likely the result of heavy summer precipitation/nocturnal summer precipitation. Interestingly, parts of coastal California appear to have summer dominant recharge, which we suggest could be due to recharge from fog-drip. Our results summarize spatial patterns in groundwater isotopes across the conterminous United States, provide insight into the hydrologic processes affecting shallow groundwater, and are valuable information for future ecologic and hydrologic studies.     

Integrated Futures for Europe＇s Mountain Regions： Reconciling Biodiversity Conservation and Human Livelihoods

Europe＇s mountains cover nearly half of the continent＇s area and are home to one fifth of the European population. Mountain areas are hotspots of biodiversity and agriculture has played a multifunctional role in defining and sustaining mountain biodiversity. Ongoing trends of agricultural decline are having negative impacts on mountain biodiversity. This paper presents results from an interdisciplinary European research project, BioScene, which investigated the relationship between agriculture and biodiversity in six mountain study areas across Europe to provide recommendations for reconciling biodiversity conservation with social and economic activities through an integrated rural development strategy. BioScene used scenario analysis and stakeholder participation as tools for structuring the analysis of alternative mountain futures. Three main BioScene scenarios were evaluated： Business as Usual （BAIT）, Agricultural Liberalisation （Lib）, Managed Change for Biodiversity （MCB）. BioScene brought together ecologists, economists, sociologists and rural geogra- phers, to carry out interdisciplinary analysis of the scenarios： identifying key drivers of change, assessing the biodiversity consequences and evaluating costeffectiveness. BioScene used a sustainability assessment to integrate the research outputs across natural and social science disciplines to assess the broader sustainability of the scenarios in terms of biodiversity, natural resources, rural development, social development, economic development and institutional capacity. The sustainability assessment showed that the MCB scenario was potentially the most sustainable of the three BioScene scenarios. Through the reconciliation of potentially conflicting objectives, such as conservation, economic development and human livelihoods, and with a strong participatory planning approach, the MCB scenario could represent an alternative approach to BaU for sustainable rural development in Europe＇s mountains. BioScene confirms the necessity for natural and social scientists to work together to seek solutions to environmental problems. Interdisciplinary research can assist with the definition of integrated strategies with the potential to reconcile the ecological, social and economic parameters that determine a sustainable future for European mountain areas.     

Limits to adaptation to interacting global change risks among smallholder rice farmers in Northwest Costa Rica

In this paper, we discuss the theoretical relationships among interacting global change risks, valued livelihood goals, and adaptation limits. We build from research on the impacts of multiple and interacting global change risks in lesser-developed countries and seek to understand household adaptation limits in agrarian communities. We ask: What are valued livelihood goals among smallholder farmers in Northwest Costa Rica? How do socio-economic determinants of adaptive capacities determine their ability to meet these goals in the face of the impacts of interacting global change risks? Our data were based on focus groups, interviews, survey responses from 94 smallholder farmers, government statistics, and published literature. We analyzed our data using qualitative content analysis and quantitative logistic regression models. Our analysis showed that farmers perceived rice production as an identity, and that they were being forced to consider limits to their abilities to adapt to maintain that identity. We found that farm size, cattle ownership, years spent farming, and household income variety were determinants of their abilities to remain in rice production while maintaining sufficient levels of livelihood security. We also showed that for those households most vulnerable to water scarcity, their ability to successfully adapt to meet valued livelihood goals is diminished because adaptation to water scarcity increases vulnerability to decreased rice-market access. In this way, they become trapped by the inability to reduce their vulnerability to risks of the interaction between global changes and therefore abandon valued identities and livelihoods.     

广东省残疾人生计资本的空间差异及影响因素研究

运用改进的TOPSIS模型和GIS空间分析方法,对2015年广东省21个地市残疾人生计资本的空间分布特征及影响因素进行分析。结果表明：① 残疾人生计资本综合水平呈明显的“级差化”分异特征,高生计资本地市以广州、肇庆和清远3市为主,而低生计资本地市分布相对分散,总体表现出“大分散、小集中”的分布格局。② 残疾人不同类型生计资本水平空间差异显著,各类型资本大多处于较低等级,多种资本匹配性较低;社会和金融资本较高区主要分布在粤北地区,人力、康复和物质资本较高区均以广州最高;各类型资本以东部沿海城市及粤西云浮、茂名、阳江等地相对偏低。③ 残疾人生计资本总量具有显著的空间自相关性,热点区和冷点区分布差异明显,总体上表现出集聚分布特征。经分析,政策环境、经济水平、教育培训及康复服务等方面是影响广东省残疾人生计资本空间分布格局的重要因素。