东北地区生态消费水平的区域可持续性研究

生态可持续性评价揭示了区域可持续发展能力的基线尺度。这一领域的评价问题,不仅涉及到对自然环境本底的探究,也涉及到对社会系统行为方式的考察。加拿大生态经济学家创造性地提出了一种生态足迹的分析方法,将人类的消费行为与生态承载力联系起来,评价消费行为的可持续性。通过借鉴这一方法,估算了东北地区的生态承载力与生态消费水平。在此基础上进行区域生态可持续性评价,并进一步探讨促进与改善区域生态可持续性的可能途径与政策目标。     

基于BP神经网络的农户生计风险评价模型

当今,农户生计风险在农村社会建设的过程中是最为重要和核心的问题之一。作为基本的社会经济单元,农户正面临着来自经济、社会和自然等各方面的风险。石羊河流域农户由于面临着严峻的风险冲击使其生计脆弱性进一步加剧。所以,急需辨明流域农户面临的主要风险类型,并依此找寻提高农户风险应对能力的对策措施。针对流域农户生计风险的非线性关系和复杂性特征,以及BP神经网络的适用性范围,建立了基于BP神经网络的农户生计风险评价指标体系。并基于入户调查数据,运用熵权法计算得出流域农户生计风险评价指标体系中各种生计风险变量。同时,根据石羊河流域农户所面临生计风险的特征,基于BP神经网络结构模型,确定了其评价结果的表征方法。最终对模型的可行性进行了验证。研究表明：基于BP神经网络的生计风险评价模型对定量化测度农户生计风险的适用性较强,这可为决策部门定量评估农户生计风险提供依据。     

鄱阳湖水质污染对湿地生态系统生态功能的影响

湿她内部生物、物理、化学组份之间的相互作用过程,推动湿地的形成和发育,是其生态结构和生态功能的物质基础。水是鄱阳湖湖泊及其湿地的主体要素之一,各种形式的水是参与湿地生态过程的主体成分．贯穿融于生态形成和系统运作的生物、物理、化学过程的每一个环节,湖泊水质的变化直接影响着湿地的生态过程,影响水域生态系统、湖滩草洲生态系统、农牧与生态系统食物链和食物网的质量．所以水质变化及污染是湿地生态功能衰退研究的核心内容之一。     

Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change

Climate change and land use/land cover change have resulted in water shortage, degraded ecosystem services, and increased disaster risks across the world. Developing strategies and measures for achieving regional and global sustainability in the face of these environmental problems is a key topic of current climate change research. This paper provides an overview of the 973 project, entitled “Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change”, including its background, relative progresses, key scientific questions, major research elements, methodology, and expected outcomes. The proposed research is based on sustainability science, guided by the idea of Orderly Human Activities (OHA), and implemented through an integrated methodology of combining field observations, simulation experiments, and scenario analysis. The main objectives of the project are: to quantify the relationship between human activities and climate change, to assess the impacts of human activities on ecosystem services and human well being in the face of climate change, and to develop an integrated model of climate change, OHA, and regional sustainable development. The ultimate goal is to provide a landscape/regional-scale strategy for sustainable development in the face of climate change. The project is expected to help advance the science and application of landscape sustainability science and land system design, particularly in terms of linking climate change, ecosystem services, and human well-being in the dry land region of China.     

Research progress on evaluation frameworks of regional ecological sustainability

As natural ecosystems provide the material basis and fundamental support for regional sustainable devel-opment,the sustainability of natural ecosystems is an important prerequisite and a viable approach for the achievement of regional sustainable development.It is also the final criteria to assess whether sustainable development paradigm is successful.Along with the increasing impacts of human activities on natural ecosystems,the evaluation of regional ecological sustainability has become one of the key issues for research on macro ecology and sustainable development.Based on different unit of indicators,this study firstly groups the evaluation frameworks of regional ecological sus-tainability into three major types:comprehensive index evaluation with dimensionless unit,monetary valuation,and biophysical quantity measurement.We then discuss and compare these types in terms of basic principles,scope of ap-plications,advantages and shortcomings.Finally,drawn on the discussion about characteristics of ecological sustain-ability,we outline the current trend and future directions of regional ecological sustainability evaluation,for instance,transition from sustainable development evaluation to sustainability science,integration of goal-oriented and problem-solving approaches,combination of spatial pattern analysis and ecological sustainability evaluation,and en-hancement of ecological sustainability evaluation at landscape scale.     

基于PSR模型的区域生态持续性评价概念框架

区域可持续发展是可持续发展的重要基础, 生态持续性则是实现区域可持续发展的重要前提与基本途径, 但目前仍缺乏普遍认可的生态持续性目标分解方案;而在人类活动对自然生态影响日益显著且不断增大的背景下, 生态系统健康、风险、安全与可持续性评价已成为当前宏观生态学的研究热点, 虽然在各类评价之间普遍存在概念混淆、指标体系雷同等问题。本研究在系统梳理生态持续性相关概念逻辑关联的基础上, 将区域视为人类自然-经济复合生态系统, 强调人类活动的主导性, 基于“压力-状态-响应(PSR)”模型, 从生态胁迫、生态系统健康和生态可持续能力3 方面构建了一个具有鲜明生态意义的区域生态持续性评价概念模型, 并对评价模型、评价指标筛选及其阈值与权重展开了深入探讨。研究认为:系统工程的综合评价法是区域生态持续性评价的基本方法;不存在绝对的评价标准, 区域生态持续性评价的终极目标, 不在于静态的评价某时某地人类-自然复合生态系统可持续与否, 而在于定量表征时空尺度上系统可持续性的动态变化与空间分异。     

耦合魔方——一个分析人地系统耦合机理的多维框架

Understanding the interactions between humans and nature in the Anthropocene is central to the quest for both human wellbeing and global sustainability.However,the time-space compression,long range interactions,and reconstruction of socio-economic structures at the global scale all pose great challenges to the traditional analytical frameworks of human-nature systems.In this paper,we extend the connotation of coupled human and natural systems(CHANS)and their four dimensions—space,time,appearance,and organization,and propose a novel framework:“Coupled Human and Natural Cube”(CHNC)to explain the coupling mechanism between humans and the natural environment.Our proposition is inspired by theories based on the human-earth areal system,telecoupling framework,planetary urbanization,and perspectives from complexity science.We systematically introduce the concept,connotation,evolution rules,and analytical dimensions of the CHNC.Notably there exist various“coupling lines”in the CHNC,connecting different systems and elements at multiple scales and forming a large,nested,interconnected,organic system.The rotation of the CHNC represents spatiotemporal nonlinear fluctuations in CHANS in different regions.As a system continually exchanges energy with the environment,a critical phase transition occurs when fluctuations reach a certain threshold,leading to emergent behavior of the system.The CHNC has four dimensions—pericoupling and telecoupling,syncoupling and lagcoupling,apparent coupling and hidden coupling,and intra-organization coupling and inter-organizational coupling.We mainly focus on the theoretical connotation,research methods,and typical cases of telecoupling,lagcoupling,hidden coupling,and inter-organizational coupling,and put forward a human-nature coupling matrix to integrate multiple dimensions.In summary,the CHNC provides a more comprehensive and systematic research paradigm for understanding the evolution and coupling mechanism of the human-nature system,which expands the analytical dimension of CHANS.The CHNC also provides a theoretical support for formulating regional,sustainable development policies for human wellbeing.     

Aggregate performance in managing marine ecosystems of 53 maritime countries

Fourteen indicators of marine living resource management performance by country, reflecting both their intention to sustainably use the resource within their Exclusive Economic Zones and the effectiveness of their policies, were developed and the performances of 53 maritime countries were assessed. Four rankings of the countries, which jointly account for over 95 percent of the world's marine fisheries landings, are presented here as aggregated scores of the fourteen indicators, using different schemes for weighting the indicators, each reflective of the management preferences identified by the Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO4) future development scenarios: Market First; Policy First; Security First; and Sustainability First. The resulting rankings differed substantially between the weighting schemes for the top performing countries but less so for the countries performing poorly.     

流域可持续评价的最大熵原理——投影寻踪耦合模型

在传统投影寻踪方法的基础上,综合考虑投影向量优化中的不确定性,提出基于最大熵原理的多准则投影寻踪方法,利用加速遗传算法对多准则目标函数进行优化求解。根据投影值与标准等级值的散点图趋势关系,建立了三次趋势曲线评价模型。淮河流域可持续性评价的实例结果表明了该模型在求解评价问题中的有效性。该模型同样适用于其它领域的综合评价问题。     

城中村可持续更新路径探索 ——以长沙后湖黄鹤村为例

城中村更新的方式主要有两种:一种是拆迁重建,另一种是就地整改;两种方式均难以满足城市对经济、社会、环境等多元目标的可持续发展需求,成为制约城市更新进程与效果的关键因素.基于此,引入可持续性科学理论,并借鉴管理学中"对象-主体-过程"的三维分析框架,以社区及单个项目作为研究的空间尺度,构建了城中村可持续更新模式的研究框架...