CHOICE OF SAMPLING STRATEGY AND ESTIMATION METHOD FOR CALCULATING NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS TRANSPORT IN SMALL LOWLAND STREAMS

As reliable estimates of stream nutrient transport are required for many purposes including trend analysis, mass balances and model development, the impact of sampling strategy and estimation method on the bias and precision of stream nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) transport calculations was evaluated. The study was undertaken in two catchments in eastern Denmark. Selection of the most accurate sampling strategy and estimation method, i.e. with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) was based on random (Monte Carlo) runs for generating replicate data sets from an essentially complete record of the concentration of total N (TN), total P (TP), particulate P (PP) and dissolved P (DP) during a two-year period (June 1987 to June 1989). The evaluation comprised 13 different estimation methods and seven discrete sampling strategies involving three categories (regular, stratified and strata sampling). The regular sampling strategies were more accurate (lower RMSE) during high-flow periods than stratified sampling. The greatest improvement in RMSE for TN, TP, PP and DP transport was obtained when increasing the sampling frequency from 12 each year (monthly) to 18 (monthly in summer and fortnightly in winter) and 26 each year (fortnightly). The increase in accuracy (RMSE) was less when increasing the sampling frequency to 52 (weekly) or 104 (biweekly). Nearly all the methods evaluated underestimated the annual transport of TP and PP, whereas TN and DP were both under- and overestimated. The best method of estimating N and P transport when utilizing discrete sampling was both site- and time-dependent. The overall best and most reproducible (stream to stream, year to year) method for estimating annual transport of TN, TP, PP and DP was a linear interpolation method. When this method was used to derive estimates of annual TN and TP transport based on fortnightly sampling, the RMSE was 1.4–5.4 and 20.2–38.5%, respectively, in the Gelbæk stream and 1.1–4.9 and 10.5–15.0%, respectively, in the Gjern Å stream. Subdividing the hydrograph into two strata (low-flow and high-flow periods) and sampling these strata separately for calculating TP transport was superior to discrete sampling for the smaller of the two catchments. A combination of regular sampling (monthly) and pooled high-flow sampling (eight events out of a total of 43) reduced the RMSE of the annual TP load to 10.4%.     

大渡河上游不同地带居民对环境退化的响应

Environmental degeneration in the Tibetan Plateau attracts worldwide attention, whereas case studies on how the residents understand and respond to environmental degeneration are scarce. Using a Participatory Rural Appraisal method, this paper investigates how the people in different regions in the upper Dadu River understand and respond to environmental degeneration, based on comparative field surveys in three villages, in which Danzamu village is chosen from villages in the valley region, Kerma village from mountainside region, Rico village from the mountain and plateau region. The results show that: (1) although awakened to environmental degeneration, the residents in different regions have different responses. As agricultural labors have been transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries, population pressure in Danzamu and Kerma villages is mitigated. Residents in Danzamu village actively respond to natural disasters and forest degradation, as their livelihoods never rely on forests and rangelands again. Whereas the residents in Kema village negatively respond to natural disasters, forest and meadow degradation and the ruin of wildlife resources, as their livelihoods still rely on stockbreeding. Labors in Rico village are hard to transfer to the secondary and tertiary industries, so they have to raise more livestock to make a living. Active measures are just taken to avoid livestock loss, not to avoid forest and meadow degradation and the ruin of wildlife resources. So the most fragile region is the mountain and plateau region and mountainside region, not the valley region. (2) Livelihood strategy is the key factor affecting the residents to respond to population pressure and environmental degeneration. So the framework of sustainable livelihood strategy should be used to explain and intervene in issues of population pressure and environmental degradation in ecotones. (3) Transferring agricultural labors to the secondary and tertiary industries were favorable to improving people’s livelihood. It is necessary to reduce the education fees to speed up the pace of labors transferring in the mountainside region. In the mountain and plateau region, preferable ways also include the development of towns, highways, education equipment and other establishments. Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40471009; No.30270256; National Basic Research Program of China, No.2002CB412500; No.2005CB422006; Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, No.KZCX3-SW-339 Author: Yan Jianzhong, Ph.D., specialized in LUCC, global change and regional responses.     

湖南五强溪库区老滑坡复活现状、成因浅析与防治对策

山体滑坡是湖南五强溪库区发生最频繁,损失最大的自然灾害之一,本文以沅陵县舒溪口上排滑坡和落坪集镇滑坡为例,阐述了湖南五强溪库区老滑坡近期复活变形特征,分析了老滑坡复活变形成因,并提出了加强预测预报、规范人为活动和如何防治的对策。     

基于GIS-SD的大连湾水污染时空模拟与调控策略研究

大连泫可持续发展的矛盾是一个动态现象,同时这些矛盾也涉及到空间因子（例如,污染物浓度分布与环境功能区划等）。为了探讨和模拟各种发展方案（不同的经济增长和城市化）的矛盾机理,将系统动力学（ＳＤ）方法和地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ）方法结合起来,提出了一个新的可操作的ＧＩＳ－ＳＤ结合的概念框架,建立了大连湾水污染与控制系统模型,并进行了时空模拟和调控策略研究,模拟了该区域的不同增长计划（方案）对海域环境环境质     

Land use changes in Central Kenya from the 1950s — A possibility to generalise?

Land use changes in Kenya's central Highlands were examined with the purpose of comparing findings from Murang'a District with a new study carried out in a similar environment, Nyeri District. In addition, a generalisation of the findings was examined and methods were analysed to investigate its use in other areas. Aerial photographs were used to analyse land use and soil and water conservation in form of terraces. Furthermore, farmers were interviewed in order to obtain information about how they perceive environmental changes and how these changes have affected their livelihoods. Interpretation of aerial photographs together with field verification and interviews give information about environmental changes and their effects. Population censuses were investigated and findings were compared. Results from this study show that the two study areas have similar physical conditions with decreasing soil fertility. The main difference is the cultivated cash crops, tea and coffee in Nyeri, but only coffee in Murang'a. Also, more land is terraced in Nyeri than in Murang'a. The reason why there are adequate terraces in Nyeri is because of the multitude of cash crops that require terraces for their establishment. Compared with Murang'a, farmers in Nyeri are more satisfied with their situation, mainly due to regular payment from tea and a lower population pressure. This study shows that generalisation of the findings can be made but in order to extrapolate it further to the whole central Highlands more studies and knowledge about the whole area are required. The study also shows that methods used to examine environmental changes can be used elsewhere. Although the recommendations are to generalise with caution so that the final results are reliable and true.     

The question of development and environment in geography in the era of globalisation

This paper focuses on how livelihood and the question of development and environment in a globalising era should be examined. It discusses various views in geography on the question of environment and development, and it explores the concept of sustainable livelihood. It concludes that a geographical conceptualisation of ‘development and environment’ may profit from the discussion on sustainable livelihood, provided that it does not become entangled in an actor-cum-local bias. Moreover, the diffusion of non-equilibrium concepts may broaden the analysis of man-land relations and open the way to an analysis of globalisation effects. Globalisation gives rise to new assortments of geographical entities and, as livelihoods adapt, they will shape constantly shifting regions with specific man-land arrangements. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The potential value of improved ocean observation systems in the Gulf of Mexico

A number of coastal and ocean observation systems exist throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), but the network of systems is not currently linked or integrated and at present not fully implemented. The network of local systems are diverse, typically involving unique mandates and several different funding sources at various levels of permanence. The purpose of this paper is to describe the ocean observation systems that currently exist in the GOM, and to identify and quantify the expected economic benefits that may result from the implementation of an integrated regional network. Improved ocean observation systems are expected to reduce the uncertainty of ocean/weather forecasting and to enhance the value of ocean/weather information throughout the Gulf region. The source of benefits and the size of activity from which improved ocean observation benefits may be derived are estimated for private sector, non-market, and public sector activities categorized according to marine transportation, commercial fishing, recreational fishing, search and rescue operations, and pollution management. The benefits of improved ocean observation systems to energy exploration, development, and production activities are estimated, and a discussion of potential benefits to lightering activities, environmental monitoring, royalty payments, and engineering design are highlighted.     

Adaptive Ecology, Growth Strategies and the Global Bloom Expansion of Dinoflagellates

Dinoflagellates exhibit unique differences from diatoms in their adaptive ecologies that may be favoring their increasingly successful exploitation of coastal waters and global bloom expansion. Dinoflagellates behave as annual species, bloom soloists, are ecophysiologically diverse and habitat specialists, whereas diatoms behave as perennial species, guild members and are habitat cosmopolites. Diatoms have a relatively uniform bloom strategy based on species-rich pools and exhibit limited habitat specialization. Dinoflagellates have multiple life-form strategies consistent with their diverse habitat specializations, but rely on impoverished bloom species pools. Niche structure and dinoflagellate competition for niche space are considered. The “open niche period” formulated originally for Narragansett Bay is extrapolated as a general bloom paradigm. It is suggested that successful niche occupancy leading to blooms involves adaptive strategies at three heirarchic taxonomic elements: phylogenetic, generic and species-specific, and in that sequence. Transoceanic expatriation of emigrant species leading to indigenous status and blooms requires completion of a three-stage colonization process. Anthropogenic seedings are not, in themselves, bloom stimulation events; they are only the first phase of a multiple-step process. The organismal and niche features required for a hidden flora member to become a bloom species are considered, and the interplay between niche structure, habitat carrying capacity, colonization requirements and stochasticity as factors in the changing global bloom behavior of dinoflagellates discussed. The question is posed whether traditional perspectives of phytoplankton behavior apply completely to dinoflagellates. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.