Renewable energy strategies in England, Australia and New Zealand

The development of renewable energy sources is of prime interest to many countries seeking to pursue greenhouse gas emission reduction obligations. The increased use of renewables offers the possibility of not only contributing to emission reduction, but at the same time improving energy supply diversity and security, and developing employment and business in related supply industries. Two main mechanisms are in common use, one a quota (quantity) instrument often associated with tradable certificates, and the other a prescribed pricing mechanism. This paper considers the renewable energy development strategies of three countries (the UK, Australia, and New Zealand) all using a variant of the quota/certificate approach as the central instrument in their programs. The regulatory frameworks defining the application of the certificate systems differ notably, and the likely differing outcomes suggest that these regulatory settings may be at least as important as the selection of the basic policy instrument, in determining the overall success of programs of this nature.     

The emerging small-scale cattle farming sector in Uzbekistan: Highly integrated with crop production but suffering from low productivity

Even two decades after independence in 1991, the agricultural sector of Uzbekistan remains regulated by the government, prescribing the number of cattle head per agricultural area or imposing mandatory cash crops. The policy makers are insufficiently informed about the bottlenecks in the different livestock production units and base their policies mainly on general knowledge. This study analyzed the two major cattle farm types in the Khorezm province, 56 medium-scale farms (LS; on average 22 ha) and 80 household farms (HH; on average 0.2 ha). While LS farms produced more metabolizable energy and crude protein than required by their own ruminant livestock, the feeds produced by HH farms covered only a third of the requirements. Despite their limited farm size, the HH farmers took an active part in the commercial farming sector, for example, through the purchase of inputs for cattle and crop production, and product sales. The HH farms generated higher relative crop yields than their LS counterparts, while cattle productivity of both was comparable, albeit low. The present findings can be considered as a benchmark for monitoring developments in the cattle sector and as a source of information for directing improvements in feed supply, cattle health and husbandry.     

大陆裂谷盆地层序地层学的研究

本文以松辽裂谷盆地为例，讨论了层序地层学在陆相湖泊盆地中的应用实例，提出了适用于内陆湖泊盆地的层序地层学的术语和模式。根据大陆裂谷盆地的演化阶段特征，划分为同裂谷沉降超层序和后裂谷沉降超层序，指出两个超层序在形成机制和组份上的差异，并相应建立了两类层序地展模式；根据古湖泊发展过程中出现枯水湖—丰水期—枯水期的周期性演化特点，划分为湖进体系域、湖泛体系域和湖退体系域。     

Country-specific dietary shifts to mitigate climate and water crises

Undernutrition, obesity, climate change, and freshwater depletion share food and agricultural systems as an underlying driver. Efforts to more closely align dietary patterns with sustainability and health goals could be better informed with data covering the spectrum of countries characterized by over- and undernutrition. Here, we model the greenhouse gas (GHG) and water footprints of nine increasingly plant-forward diets, aligned with criteria for a healthy diet, specific to 140 countries. Results varied widely by country due to differences in: nutritional adjustments, baseline consumption patterns from which modeled diets were derived, import patterns, and the GHG- and water-intensities of foods by country of origin. Relative to exclusively plant-based (vegan) diets, diets comprised of plant foods with modest amounts of low-food chain animals (i.e., forage fish, bivalve mollusks, insects) had comparably small GHG and water footprints. In 95 percent of countries, diets that only included animal products for one meal per day were less GHG-intensive than lacto-ovo vegetarian diets (in which terrestrial and aquatic meats were eliminated entirely) in part due to the GHG-intensity of dairy foods. The relatively optimal choices among modeled diets otherwise varied across countries, in part due to contributions from deforestation (e.g., for feed production and grazing lands) and highly freshwater-intensive forms of aquaculture. Globally, modest plant-forward shifts (e.g., to low red meat diets) were offset by modeled increases in protein and caloric intake among undernourished populations, resulting in net increases in GHG and water footprints. These and other findings highlight the importance of trade, culture, and nutrition in diet footprint analyses. The country-specific results presented here could provide nutritionally-viable pathways for high-meat consuming countries as well as transitioning countries that might otherwise adopt the Western dietary pattern.     

非稳态热传导时层状路面体系的温度响应

利用解析层元法推导温度荷载作用下非稳态热传导时层状路面体系的温度响应解答。从热弹性理论平面应变问题的控制方程出发,借助于Laplace-Fourier积分变换,推导出单层介质及下卧半平面的精确刚度矩阵即解析层元,结合有限层法原理及边界条件,组装并求解总刚度矩阵,得到其在变换域内的解答,最后通过相应的积分逆变换得到物理域内的真实解。由于该法刚度矩阵元素中不含正指数项,计算时不会出现溢出或病态矩阵的现象。编译了相应的计算程序,所得结果与有限元模拟结果吻合较好。在此基础上,对有限深度和半平面两种假定条件下的解答进行对比分析,并分析层状路面体系中位移和温度随时间的变化趋势及沿深度的分布规律。分析表明：温度场具有一定的影响深度,超过此深度,有限深度与半平面理论解答基本一致;温度荷载的影响深度与其强度有关,强度越大,其影响深度越深。     

海平面及海平面变化综述

分析总结了海平面及海平面变化的有关问题,如相关概念及其关系的理解,海平面变化旋回等时性及可对比性,海平面升降曲线的表示方法、内容及绘制技术与原理,其升降幅度的定量化计算和模拟,海平面变化成因的旋回级别、动态分异及成因标识,海平面变化对沉积盆地的影响等等。提出部分建议,包括理清海平面与海平面变化,海平面升降与振荡、波动,全球与相对、高频、复合海平面,ＴＲ旋回与海平面变化等概念;限定其概念的外延、内涵及其之间的关系,以及三、四级海平面变化旋回用于同一大陆或泛大陆的对比性;分清各种表示方法、技术的使用范围,相对水深曲线转换为海平面升降曲线过程中成岩作用、构造沉降、沉积（生产）速率的影响校正及定量模拟;在海平面变化旋回级次格架下结合两种思路进行成因分析;推荐相对海平面升降成因分析按曲线对比法→构造沉降→回剥法思路进行;建议加强海平面升降变化对盆地充填响应的研究;重视对沉积矿床的控制和大陆边缘地壳变形的反弹作用过程及定量模拟。     

双排隔振屏障对振动波的阻隔作用及动力响应分析

本文采用模拟试验的方法,对分层土地基中双排隔振屏障对振动波的动力响应进行了探讨,并研究了桩长与土层分界面位置关系、激振频率对其隔振效果的影响作用,得出结论:（1）屏障前振动强度远大于屏障后振动强度,并随着振源距、激振频率、桩长的增加而下降,且屏障前出现明显振动增强现象,在激振频率80 Hz时产生振动峰值,振动强度在高频时基本稳定,继续增加激振频率,振动强度并不会发生明显变化。（2）屏障后中线左右2倍桩长范围内为整个隔振区域的薄弱区,其他区域则由包络线围成一个封闭有效隔振区。（3）屏障对中频和高频有更好的隔振效果,且桩长越大有效隔振面积越大,当桩长超过土层分界面时,有效隔振面积可达到53.25%～69.78%,但此时有效隔振面积增幅由原来的14.29%下降到11.64%,增幅降低了约3%。（4）未设屏障区振动强度较小,随激振频率小范围内浮动,在激振频率为30 Hz和80 Hz时取得振动峰值,且随着屏障布置方向减小,即靠近屏障一侧振动强度较强,远离屏障一侧振动强度较弱。     

利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

基于情境感知和序列模式挖掘的气象学习资源推荐算法

随着互联网的快速发展,气象部门职工作为学习者可以获得的学习资源得到极大丰富。信息超载导致检索合适的在线学习资源时遇到了困难;学习者在不同学习环境和序列访问模式上也有不同的学习需求。但是,现有的推荐系统,如基于内容的推荐和协同过滤,没有结合学习者的情境和序列访问模式,推荐结果准确度不高。本文提出了一种结合情境感知、序列模式挖掘和协同过滤算法的混合推荐算法来为学习者推荐学习资源。混合推荐算法中,情境感知被用来整合学习者的情境信息,如知识水平和学习目标;序列模式挖掘被用来对网络日志进行挖掘,发现学习者的序列访问模式;协同过滤被用来根据学习者的情境数据和序列访问模式为目标学习者计算预测并生成建议。实验和应用效果表明,该混合推荐算法推荐的质量和准确性方面优于其他推荐算法。