南海地区海—气热交换的年变化和年际变化

本文利用ＥＯＦ方法，对南海地区（０°－２０°Ｎ，１０４°－１３６°Ｅ）感热通量和潜热通量的时空变化进行了分析。结果表明：年变化中前三个特征向量具有明显的物理意义，模态一表征了南海地区感热和潜热通量的气候变化特征；模态二反映了南海地区感热和潜热通量变化与南海ＩＴＣＺ变化的联系；模态三反映了南海地区感热和潜热通量西北－东南向的半年周期振荡。在热通量的年际变化中，夏季（６－８月）的第一特征向量含有较强的     

1961-2017年华北区域大气自净能力变化特征及其影响因素分析

基于华北区域80个国家地面气象观测站资料,采用大气自净能力指数(ASI)分析了 1961-2017年华北区域大气自净能力的气候分布特征及长期变率;用MK和MT法及Morlet小波对ASI进行了突变检验和能量谱分析;结合ASI的REOF空间载荷场分布特征,将华北区域进行分区,并研究了气象要素与华北区域及各分区的可能联系;...     

Annual temperatures during the last 2485 years in the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from tree rings

By combining living trees and archaeological wood, the annual mean temperatures were reconstructed based on ring-width indices of the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau for the past 2485 years. The climate variations revealed by the reconstruction indicate that there were four periods to have average temperatures similar to or even higher than that mean of 1970 to 2000 AD. A particularly notable rapid shift from cold to warm, we call it the “Eastern Jin Event”, occurred from 348 AD to 413 AD. Calculation results show that the temperature variations over the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau are not only representative for large parts of north-central China, but also closely correspond to those of the entire Northern Hemisphere over long time scales. During the last 2485 years, the downfall of most major dynasties in China coincides with intervals of low temperature. Compared with the temperature records in other regions of China during the last 1000 years, this reconstruction from the Tibetan Plateau shows a significant warming trend after the 1950s. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40525004, 40599420, 40890051), National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2007BAC30B00, 2004CB720200, 2006CB400503) and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA, Grant to Hans W. Linderholm)     

An inspection of the long-term behaviour of the range of the daily geomagnetic field variation from comprehensive modelling

This paper attempts to reveal whether long-term trends in the ionosphere are reflected in the amplitude range of the geomagnetic daily variation recorded at ground level. The smooth and regular variation observed in the magnetograms on magnetically quiet days is induced by the ionospheric currents flowing in the dynamo region. So it is likely that trends in the conductivity or in the dynamics of this region could produce changes in the current densities, and consequently in the range of the geomagnetic variation. The crucial aspect is how to separate the changes produced by the geomagnetic activity itself, or by secular changes of the Earth's magnetic field, from the part of the variation produced by factors affecting trends in the ionosphere, which could have an anthropogenic origin. To investigate this, we synthesized for several geomagnetic observatories the daily ranges of the geomagnetic field components with a comprehensive model of the quiet-time, near-Earth magnetic field, and finally we removed the synthetic values from the observed ranges at those observatories. This comprehensive model accounts for contributions from Earth's core, lithosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere and coupling currents, and, additionally, accounts for influences of main field and solar activity variations on the ionosphere. Therefore, any trend remaining in the residuals, assuming that all the contributions mentioned above are properly described and thus removed by the comprehensive model, should reflect the influence of other sources. Results, based on series of magnetic data from observatories worldwide distributed, are presented. Trends in the X and Z components are misleading, since the current system changes in form as well as in intensity, producing changes of the focus latitude in the course of a solar cycle and from one cycle to another. Some differences exist between the long-term trends in the Y component between the real and modelled ranges, suggesting that other non-direct solar causes to the amplitude changes of the solar quiet geomagnetic variation should not be ruled out. Nevertheless, the results also reflect some short-comings in the way that the comprehensive modelling accounts for the influence of the solar activity on the range of the daily geomagnetic variation.     

Radiocarbon wiggle-match dating of proglacial lake sediments – Implications for the 8.2 ka event

The problem of insufficient age-control limits the utilisation of the 8.2 ka BP event for modelling freshwater forcing in climate change studies. High-resolution radiocarbon dates, magnetic susceptibility and lithostratigraphic evidence from a lake sediment core from Nedre Hervavatnet located at Sygnefjell in western Norway provide a record of the early Holocene. We use the method of radiocarbon wiggle-match dating of the lake sediments using the non-linear relationship between the ¹⁴C calibration curve and the consecutive accumulation order of the sample series in order to build a high-resolution age-model. The timing and duration of Holocene environmental changes is estimated using 38 AMS radiocarbon dates on terrestrial macrofossils, insects and chironomids covering the time period from 9750 to 1180 cal BP. Chironomids, Salix and Betula leaves produce the most consistent results. Sedimentological and physical properties of the core suggest that three meltwater events with high sedimentation rates are superimposed on a long-term trend with glacier retreat between 9750 and 8000 cal BP. The lake sediment sequence of Nedre Hervavatnet demonstrates the following: only a reliable high-resolution geochronology based on carefully selected terrestrial macrofossils allows the reconstruction of a more refined and complex environmental change history before and during the 8.2 ka event.     

晚第四纪科尔沁沙地干湿变化的黄土记录

利用光释光（OSL）定年技术对科尔沁沙地南缘的典型黄土剖面进行了测年,结合两个剖面的磁化率、粒度、有机质含量等气候替代性指标,对沙地古气候及环境变化过程进行了分析。结果表明,晚第四纪科尔沁沙地的古气候经历了万年-千年时间尺度的多次干湿变化,特别是在146.96 ka BP前后、141.98 ka BP左右和107.06 ka BP前后发生过重大转变;相应地,沙地地表植被也经历了干冷多风条件下的干草原、荒漠草原和温暖湿润或温凉稍湿气候条件下的森林草原、疏林草原的多次变化。科尔沁沙地古气候的干湿变化可能是晚第四纪东亚冬、夏季风强弱变化的反映。     

Coulomb土压力理论的两种解法

采用极限平衡变分法和Culmann分析方法,对土压力问题进行了研究。在极限平衡变分法中,以滑动体静力平衡的2个力的平衡方程为基础,引入Lagrange乘子,将以变分学观点来描述的主动土压力和被动土压力问题,转化为确定含有2个函数自变量的泛函极值问题。依据泛函取极值时,必须满足Euler方程,得出了主动土压力和被动土压力取极值时墙后土体沿平面滑动破坏的结论。在Culmann分析方法中,沿用了Coulomb土压力理论关于平面滑动破坏的假定,而在推导土压力计算公式的过程中,仅利用了滑动体沿某一特定方向的一个力的平衡方程。与目前通行的Coulomb土压力公式的证明过程相比,Culmann分析方法更为简洁。     

水生植物对岩溶水化学日变化的影响——以桂林岩溶水文地质试验场为例

以桂林岩溶水文地质试验场为研究点,以研究水生植物对岩溶水化学日变化的影响为目的,着重研究水葫芦和水藻对岩溶水的pH、电导率、溶解氧含量、方解石饱和指数以及CO2 分压日变化的影响。试验结果表明: 在不同水生植物生长的岩溶水中,水化学的日动态变化规律是不同的。在水藻生长的水池出水口处,水的pH、电导、溶解氧含量、饱和指数以及CO2 分压所受的影响主要以水生植物的光合作用为主;而在有水葫芦生长的岩溶水中,水生植物的光合作用影响降低,而温度和根呼吸作用的影响增强。在以桂林岩溶水文地质试验场S31号泉水池出水口堰板处和堰板下游约3m 处为监测点试验时,试验结果表明其水生植物的影响占70%以上,强于温度作用的影响。      

巴基斯坦7.8级地震前新疆独山子台跨断层位移变化初析

2005年10月8日巴基斯坦发生7.8级强烈地震, 震前新疆独山子台横向位移测量仪(GDW)记录到了较大变化。 根据独山子台记录到的断层形变资料, 结合区域内其他观测资料及区域地震活动进行了初步分析, 结果表明: ① 独山子-安集海断裂现今活动是以右旋逆冲运动为主, 其断层垂直向活动速率为0.12 mm/a, 水平向活动速率为0.25 mm/a。 巴基斯坦7.8级地震前横向位移观测结果显示断层右旋滑动速率增强, 其日平均速率达1.79 mm/d, 是正常日平均活动速率的12.8倍。 ② 独山子台MD系列数字化跨断层形变观测资料, 对独山子台300 km范围内的M_S≥5.0地震, 震前均有明显的地震前兆异常显示; 对1000 km范围内的M_S≥7.5地震, 亦有孕震过程显示。 ③ 巴基斯坦7.8级地震后约15分钟, 独山子台的MD系列数字化跨断层形变测量仪先后记录到了同震变化, 这也进一步说明该测量仪具有高精度、 宽量程、 抗干扰能力强的特点。