Combined discrete and continuous gravity observations at Mount Etna

Systematic investigation of discrete gravity measurements has continued at Mount Etna since 1986. The network now covers an area of 400 km² with about 70 stations 0.5–3 km apart. Mass redistributions occurring at depths ranging between about 8 km below sea level and a few hundred metres below the surface (magma level changes within the shallower parts of the feeding conduits) have been identified from these data. Conventional (discrete) microgravity monitoring on a network of stations furnishes only instantaneous states of the mass distribution at continuously active systems. In order to obtain information on the rate at which the volcanic processes (and thus mass transfers) occur, three stations for continuously recording gravity where installed on Mount Etna in 1998. A 16-month long sequence from one of the continuously running stations (PDN, located 2 km from the active northeast crater at the summit of Etna volcano) is presented. After removing the effects of Earth Tide and tilt, the correlation of the residual gravity sequence with simultaneous recordings of meteorological parameters acquired at the same station was analysed. Once the meteorological effects have also been removed, continuous gravity changes are within 10 μGal of gravity changes measured using conventional microgravity observations at sites very close to the continuous station. This example shows how discrete and continuous gravity observations can be used together at active volcanoes to get a fuller and more accurate picture of the spatial and temporal characteristics of volcanic processes.     

The Distribution and Seasonal Variation of Dissolved Trace Metals in Florida Bay and Adjacent Waters

Florida Bay is a shallow carbonate estuary in South Florida. It receives fresh waters from the Everglades that contribute a number of metals to the Bay. The Bay is the largest estuary in Florida with nearly pristine conditions. In this paper we report the first extensive studies of trace metals in the Bay. The seasonal distributions of trace metals (Sc, V, Cr, Co, Cu, Fe, Pb, Mn, Ni and Al) were determined on surface waters in Florida Bay and adjacent waters. The measurements in the Bay were made from May 2000 to May 2001, and the adjacent waters were sampled in September 2000 and May 2002. Most of the dissolved trace metals exhibited their maximum concentrations in summer, except Al and Pb that did not show any seasonal variability. The seasonal variations of the metals are related to the influx of fresh water from rainfall. The lowest concentrations are found during the dry season in the winter and the highest during the wet season in the summer. Several metals (V, Mn, Al, Sc, Fe, Co, Ni and Cr) exhibited their highest concentrations in the western zone of the Bay. These waters from agricultural areas are influenced by Gulf of Mexico waters, which carry metals coming from Barron, Broad and Shark rivers into the Bay. The Shark River always exhibited high concentrations of V, Mn, Al, Sc, Co and Cr. Other possible influences in the western and north-central zone of the Bay are from Flamingo Center, the creeks of Taylor Slough and the mangrove fringe of the Everglades. High concentrations of Al, Co, Ni, Cr, Cu, Fe, and Pb were detected in the eastern zone. The high values found in the northeast are influenced by Taylor Slough runoff and in the southeast by Key Largo, Tavernier Marina and the drainage from the main highway (US1) on Tavernier Key. The minimum concentrations for most of the metals were found in areas near the Key channels that exchange waters between Florida Bay and the Atlantic Ocean (Gulf Stream). The adjacent waters in the Atlantic side including the Gulf Stream waters showed very low concentrations for all the metals studied except for V. In the Bay correlations of V were found: (1) V with salinity and Al and (2) Sc with Si. Most of the other metals did not show any strong correlations with nutrients or salinity. Florida Bay is thus not a typical estuary due to the unique structure of its mud banks and multiple inputs of metals from the mangrove fringe in the north.     

中国西部地区的迟发展效应、后发优势及创新对策研究

文章首先分析了中国西部地区迟发展和东、西部经济发展差距扩大的现状，在总结各种有关“迟发展效应”后，给出了“迟发展效应”的定义，提出了限制西部地区发展的重要因素是“迟发展效应”的不良影响及其累积循环作用机制，并从5个方面分析它所造成的不良影响；在分析其有利影响－后发优势的基础上，对中国西部大开发战略进行了政策，制度、技术、组织4个方面的创新对策探讨。     

Narrative warm/cold variations in continental western Europe, AD 708 -1426

An extended narrative dataset of the Medieval time AD 708-1426 in continental western Europe was set up. Some 30-year-moving mean seasonal temperature deviation series were reconstructed. A- warming trend occurred around AD 1200. During the warm stage, seasonal cycle might be weak due to frequent cool summers. Significant warm summer conditions did not occur until the late 14th century, when the annual temperature level began decreasing. The mean warm season temperature level during the late 14th to the early 15th century might be about 0.3°C higher than the present. It was suggested to cautiously comment on historical climates for different seasons.     

黄土与古季风

中国黄土的古季风记录研究，揭示了东亚季风区的环境变迁历史是来自中、高纬大陆的偏北冬季风与来自中、低纬海洋的偏南夏季风的环境效应优势期相互交替的历史。文中简要介绍了有关黄土高原黄土与古季风研究的重要进展，侧重讨论了中原地区末次冰期高分辨率黄土所记录的冬季风和夏季风变迁的特征，最后就今后全球变化计划中的黄土与古季风研究提出了几点意见。     

A Study of Linke Turbidity Factor over Qena / Egypt

Data on instantaneous atmospheric Linke turbidity factor TL (m) are reported for clear days at Qena/Egypt in the period from June 1992 to May 1993.TL(m) is determined using the values of irradiance of direct solar radiation (I),which are calculated from global (G) and diffuse (D) - solar radiation measurements.Monthly and seasonally variations of both diurnal and daily average values of TL (m) increases steadily in the direction of sunset in the months from June to December 1992 as well as Summer and Autumn seasons,while it falls generally in this direction for the months from January to March and Winter season.In April and May,TL (m) fluctuates obviously through the day hours,it is also shown that the average values of TL(m) are particularly large during Summer months compared to other months of the year.This behavior of TL(m) is discussed in view of the variations of some weather elements,which affect the content of water vapor and dust particle in the atmosphere of the study region.It seems t be of s     

1963-2012年中国主要木本植物花期长度时空变化

花期物候变化研究对赏花活动安排、园林景观布置和致敏花粉防治等具有重要意义。现有研究对始花期与盛花期的变化趋势已有较为深刻的认识,但很少有研究辨识了花期长度的时空变化。本文基于“中国物候观测网”观测数据,统计了1963-2012年中国42个站点23种广布木本植物的花期长度变化趋势,分析了花期长度变化的时空格局、种间差异和变化形式。主要结论为：所有的259条花期长度时间序列中,61.39%的序列呈延长趋势,其中显著延长的占21.24%（P<0.05）。灌木花期的延长趋势比乔木更加显著。东北地区南部、华中和华东地区的多数站点花期长度主要呈缩短趋势。在东北地区北部、华北、西南和华南地区,大多数物种的花期长度呈延长趋势。花期长度变化趋势在20°N~22°N间最大（0.94 d/a）。西部地区（87°E~112°E）的花期长度变化趋势（平均0.28 d/a）高于东部地区（平均0.05 d/a）。花期长度的总体变化可分为3个阶段：1963-1980年（偏短）、1981-1997年（与多年平均值接近）和2001-2012年（偏长）,但不同物种的花期长度变化存在显著差异。在花期长度延长的序列中,43.39%是因开花始期提前程度大于开花末期;在花期长度缩短的序列中,62.00%是因开花始期提前程度小于开花末期。     

青藏高原地区积雪及其变化的不确定性:3种积雪观测资料的对比分析

为了探究青藏高原积雪不同观测资料间的差异,本文通过定义积雪覆盖率(Snow Cover Percentage,SCP)对比了NOAA-CDR卫星可见光遥感积雪资料、卫星被动微波遥感积雪资料和我国146个台站观测的积雪资料在高原地区的气候态及年际变动特征。从年平均气候态看,微波与可见光资料的SCP分布较为接近,高值区均位于念青唐古拉山与喜马拉雅山南缘之间的山区。而台站资料SCP的高值区范围则相对较小,在高原东部的巴颜喀拉山及南部的念青唐古拉山。3种资料的积雪低值区均位于高原中南部沿雅鲁藏布江一带、阿尔金山北侧以及东边界的内陆省份。从季节平均场看,不同资料的积雪分布在冬季及秋季,无论是气候态还是年际变动均较为类似。在春季时,微波和台站资料间较为一致。而在夏季,资料间差异很大,不同资料间的两两相关接近于零,甚至为负数。本文同时选取了青藏高原地区4个典型台站(索县、清水河、康定、甘孜),将卫星资料插值于台站上,对比3种资料间的异同,以及与地表气温异常间的关系。结果表明,在这4个典型站上,台站SCP在过去36 a中为线性减少的趋势,而卫星SCP主要为线性增加的趋势,且台站年平均SCP与地表气温异常的协同性最好。     

Assessing trends and seasonal changes in elephant poaching risk at the small area level using spatio-temporal Bayesian modeling

Knowledge about changes in wildlife poaching risk at fine spatial scale can provide essential background intelligence for law enforcement and crime prevention. We assessed interannual trends and seasonal changes in elephant poaching risk for Kenya’s Greater Tsavo ecosystem for 2002 to 2012 using spatio-temporal Bayesian modeling. Poaching data were obtained from the Kenya Wildlife Service’s database on elephant mortality. The novelty of our paper is (1) combining space and time when defining poaching risk for elephant; (2) the inclusion of environmental risk factors to improve the accuracy of the spatio-temporal Bayesian model; and (3) the separate analysis of dry and wet seasons to understand season-dependent poaching patterns. Although Tsavo’s overall poaching level increased over time, the risk of poaching differed significantly across space. Three of the 34 spatial units had a consistently high poaching risk regardless of whether models included environmental risk factors. Adding risk factors enhanced the model’s predictive power. We found that highest poaching risk areas differed between the wet and dry season. The findings improve our understanding of elephant poaching and highlight high risk areas within Tsavo where action to reduce elephant poaching is required.     

Spatio-temporal variations of seismicity in the southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gaps

The spatio-temporal variation of seismicity in the southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gaps is analyzed with teleseismic data (m _b 5.5) between 1965 and 1991, to investigate whether these gaps present the precursory combination of compressional outer-rise and tensional downdip events observed in other subduction zones. In the outer-rise and the inner-trench (0 to 100 km distance from the trench) region, lower magnitude (5.0m _b <5.5) events were also studied. The results obtained show that the gaps in southern Peru and northern Chile do not present compressional outer-rise events. However, both gaps show a continuous, tensional downdip seismicity. For both regions, the change from compressional to tensional regime along the slab occurs at a distance of about 160 km from the trench, apparently associated with the coupled-uncoupled transition of the interplate contact zone. In southern Peru, an increase of compressional seismicity near the interplate zone and of tensional events (5.0m _b 6.3) in the outer-rise and inner-trench regions is observed between 1987 and 1991. A similar distribution of seismicity in the outer-rise and inner-trench regions is observed with earthquakes (m _b <5.5). In northern Chile there is a relative absence of compressional activity (m _b 5.5) near the interplate contact since the sequence of December 21, 1967. After that, only a cluster of low-magnitude compressional events has been located in the area 50 to 100 km from the trench. The compressional activity occurring near the interplate zone in both seismic gaps represents that a seismic preslip is occurring in and near the plate contact. Therefore, if this seismic preslip is associated with the maturity of the gap, the fact that it is larger in southern Peru than in northern Chile may reflect that the former gap is more mature than the latter. However, the more intense downdip tensional activity and the absence of compressional seismicity near the contact zone observed in northern Chile, may also be interpreted as evidence that northern Chile is seismically more mature than southern Peru. Therefore, the observed differences in the distribution of stresses and seismicity analyzed under simple models of stress accumulation and transfer in coupled subduction zones are not sufficient to assess the degree of maturity of a seismic gap.