1985～2003京津唐张地区重力变化

本文分析了京津唐张地区1985～2003年详实的重复重力测量资料,重力变化的图像显示该地区的重力变化具有明显的区域性特征;最为显著的变化是测网南部地区出现的较大范围重力增加,增加幅值在(100～300)×10~(-8)m·s~(-2)之间,从可搜集到的高程及地下水资料分析,造成这一变化的主要原因是该地区大量开采地下流体而引起的大面积地面沉降;测网北部山区重力趋势性减小,19年减小幅值约30×10~(-87)m·s~(-2),与香山绝对重力点的变化量相当,高程及地下水对此种趋势的影响不大,大面积山区继承性、同步性的构造运动可能是造成地表重力趋势性变化的主要原因;而东部地区重力变化的明显特征是1990年6月至1994年6月间有一重力的快速下降然后上升过程,这可能是与1995年10月滦县 M 5.9地震有关的重力变化．相比之下地下水位的变化对重力趋势的影响较微弱．     

The temporal and spatial variations in the Pacific wind and wave fields for the period 2002–2011

本文利用第三代海浪模式（WAVEWATCH III）分析了2002-2011年太平洋风速和海浪场的时空变化特征。首先,使用浮标观测数据对模式模拟的有效波高结果进行验证。结果表明模式可以有效地后报太平洋的有效波高。模式偏差较大的区域为中低纬度地区。随后将太平洋分为多个子区域,分别讨论了其风速和有效波高的时空变化特征。多年平均太平洋风速和有效波高存在类似的纬向分布特征,各子区域之间风速和有效波高的季节变化存在差别。模式刻画的太平洋有效波高年际变化最大的区域为南半球中高纬区域。进一步,我们研究了波浪能量的输入与耗散。相应的源函数项的各区域平均值显示了量化的表面波的变化。最后,对日平均的风速与有效波高值进行功率谱分析寻找序列的显著周期。结果表明有效波高时间变化对应的频谱和风速谱具有一定的差异。     

Geomorphology and sedimentary sequence evolution during the buried stage of paleo-uplift in the Lower Cretaceous Qingshuihe Formation,Junggar Basin,northwestern China: Implications for reservoir lithofacies and hydrocarbon distribution

The evolution of large-scale paleo-uplifts within sedimentary basins controls the sedimentary provenance, depositional systems and hydrocarbon distributions. This study aims to unravel changes in paleo-geomorphology, interpret sedimentary sequence evolution, and investigate favourable reservoir types and the hydrocarbon distribution during the buried stage of a long-term eroded paleo-uplift, taking the Lower Cretaceous Qingshuihe Formation (K₁q) in the Junggar Basin as an example. These research topics have rarely been studied or are poorly understood. This study integrates current drilling production data with outcrop and core analyses, drilling well logs, 3D seismic data interpretations, grading data, physical property comparisons and identified hydrocarbon distributions.After more than 20 million years of differential river erosion and weathering in arid conditions, the large-scale Chemo paleo-uplift within the hinterland area of the basin formed a distinctive valley–monadnock paleo-geomorphology prior to the deposition of K₁q. Since the Early Cretaceous, tectonic subsidence and humid conditions have caused the base level (lake level) to rise, leading to backfilling of valleys and burial processes. Two systems tracts in the target strata of K₁q, consisting of distinctive depositional systems, can be identified: (1) a lowstand systems tract (LST), which is confined within incised valleys and is mainly composed of gravelly braided rivers and rarely occurring debris flows and (2) an extensive transgressive systems tract (TST), which developed into an almost flat landform and consists of braided river delta to lacustrine depositional systems. Overall, the physical properties of braided river reservoirs in the LST are better than those of the braided river delta reservoirs in the TST. However, the inhomogeneous distributions of carbonate cements cause differences in the physical properties of conglomerate reservoirs in the LST. However, for sandstones in both the LST and TST, coarser grain sizes and better sorting result in better physical properties. Altogether, four types of reservoir can be identified in the study area: Jurassic inner monadnock reservoirs, K₁q LST stratigraphic onlap reservoirs, LST structural reservoirs and TST structural reservoirs.     

1960年以来长江流域太阳总辐射的时空变化

基于长江流域147个站点的气象数据,利用气候学计算方法估算1960年以来的太阳总辐射数据,运用线性回归和相关分析等方法,探讨1960年以来太阳总辐射在长江流域的时空变化特征,并分析太阳总辐射的影响因子.结果表明:太阳总辐射在整个长江流域(除去上游源头区金沙江流域)自东向西递减,且上游地区变化波动大,中下游地区下降趋势显著;自1960年以来太阳总辐射在长江流域呈现下降趋势,1990年以后开始呈现上升趋势;近50a来太阳总辐射的减少趋势与云量和大气水汽含量没有显著相关性.     

拉萨河谷大气水汽日变化特征

基于近10年(1999~2008年)地基GPS遥感的大气可降水量(GPS-PW)资料和地面气象资料,分析了拉萨河谷各季GPS-PW日变化特征及其对夏季降水日变化特征的影响。结果表明,在拉萨河谷各季GPS-PW都具有明显的日变化特征。春、夏、秋和冬季GPS-PW平均日变化幅度分别为1.0mm、1.7mm、1.0mm和0.8mm。GPS-PW日最小值和最大值出现的时间随季节变化不大,分别出现在08:00~10:00UTC和15:00~18:00UTC。各季GPS-PW日变化序列的谐波分析结果表明,日循环(24h)与半日循环(12h)是GPS-PW日变化的主要信号。日循环信号夏季最强,冬季最弱;半日循环信号夏季最强,春季最弱。在夏季GPS-PW达到日最大值的时间比平均逐时降水频次和降水量达到日最大值的时间约早2h。GPS-PW日变化对夏季降水日变化特征具有重要影响。     

循环分块矩阵方程之解及其应用

利用1961—2005年逐候资料对东亚副热带西风急流初夏至盛夏变化与江淮出梅的关系进行了分析。结果表明,多年平均7月初夏至盛夏急流中心由西太平洋地区西跳至青藏高原的同时我国东部地区急流北跳至37．5°N以北,比梅雨结束旱1候;急流北跳使得我国东部高空强辐散中心北移至华北地区,江淮地区上空辐散显著减弱,上升运动减弱,从而使得江淮梅雨结束,雨带北移;而急流中心的西跳仅使得我国东部地区高空辐散中心减弱,降水减弱,有利于雨带北移。我国东部急流北跳与江淮地区梅雨结束时间显著正相关,在北跳偏早（晚）年份梅雨结束早（晚）,长江中下游地区降水偏少（多）,而急流中心西跳早晚对我国华北北部地区和淮河附近地区降水有较大影响。可见,我国东部急流北跳与梅雨结束关系密切,可作为梅雨结束的先期信号。     

Spatial distribution and temporal trends in potential evapotranspiration over Hengduan Mountains region from 1960 to 2009

Based on the meteorological data of 20 stations in the Hengduan Mountains region during 1961-2009, the annual and seasonal variation of potential evapotranspiration was analyzed in combination with the Penman-Monteith model. With the method of Spline interpolation under ArcGIS, the spatial distribution of potential evapotranspiration was presented to research the regional difference, and the correlation analysis was used to discuss the dominant factor affecting the potential evapotranspiration. The results indicated that the annual potential evapotranspiration showed a decreasing tendency since the 1960s, especially from the 1980s to 1990s, while it showed an increasing tendency since 2000. Regional potential evapotranspiration showed a rate of -0.17 mm a-1. Potential evapotranspiration in north, middle and south of the Hengduan Mountains exhibited decreasing trends over the studied period, and its regional trend was on the decline from southwest to northeast.     

The Earth's Climate in the Next Hundred Thousand years (100 kyr)

One of the most striking features of the Quaternary paleoclimate records remains the so-called 100-kyr cycle which is undoubtedly linked to the future of our climate. Such a 100-kyr cycle is indeed characterised by long glacial periods followed by a short-interglacial (10–15 kyr long). As we are now in an interglacial, the Holocene, the previous one (the Eemian, which corresponds quite well to Marine Isotope Stage 5e, peaking at 125 kyr before present, BP) was assumed to be a good analogue for our present-day climate. In addition, as the Holocene is 10 kyr long, paleoclimatologists were naturally inclined to predict that we are quite close to the next ice age. Simulations using the 2-D climate model of Louvain-la-Neuve show, however, that the current interglacial will most probably last much longer than any previous ones. It is suggested here that this is related to the shape of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, which will be almost circular over the next tens of thousands of years. As this is primarily related to the 400-kyr cycle of eccentricity, the best and closest analogue for such a forcing is definitely Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS-11), some 400 kyr ago, not MIS-5e. Because the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere also plays an important role in shaping long-term climatic variations – especially its phase with respect to insolation – a detailed reconstruction of this previous interglacial from deep sea and ice records is urgently needed. Such a study is particularly important in the context of the already exceptional present-day CO₂ concentrations (unprecedented over the past million years) and, even more so, because of even larger values predicted to occur during the 21st century due to human activities.     

Coriolis’ force in the earth’s solid tidal dynamics

The Coriolis forces/accelerations due to the tidal deformations (shifts) have been estimated at points on the physical Earth’s surface. The maximum tidal accelerations occur in the direction of the prime vertical, i.e. in the prime vertical component of the deflection of the vertical. They amount to about 0.05 μGal (50 nGal). This is just about the accuracy level achieved recently by the best superconducting gravimeters (SG) exhibiting 0.1 μGal accuracy (nanoGal level). The main goal of the paper is to determine the necessity of Coriolis forces be taken into account in next future.