Short Time-Scale Variability in the Light Curve of~TW~Draconis

We have re-analyzed old photometric UBV data obtained by Papoušek et al. at Skalnaté Pleso, Slovakia (1967–1980) and Brno, Czech Republic (1976–1979) observatories and analyzed new own CCD measurements (Brno, 2003–2005). In both set of photometric data the oscillations in the vicinity of the primary minimum were found. The detected periods are compatible with the previously published ones.     

1961-2008年京津冀地区暴雨的气候变化特征分析

利用北京市、天津市和河北省1961-2008年逐日台站降水资料,采用经验正交函数分解（empirical orthogonal function）、Morlet小波、曼-肯德尔（Mann-Kendall）突变检验等方法,统计分析了京津冀地区暴雨量及暴雨频次的气候变化特征。结果表明：气候态下,京津冀地区暴雨量及暴雨频次沿地形呈东南多—西北少的分布型,暴雨发生时间相对集中在7月下旬和8月上旬。1961-2008年京津冀大部分地区暴雨量呈减少的趋势,且在1980年发生显著突变,2000年代以后暴雨量进一步减少。小波功率谱分析结果表明,京津冀地区暴雨量主要存在2-4a的显著主周期。该地区暴雨量EOF展开的前3模态显示,暴雨量主要呈全区一致变化以及东西反向、南北反向的空间变化特征。     

MULTI-TIMESCALE VARIATIONS OF SOMALI JET AND ITS RELATION WITH PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

Based on the ERA reanalysis winds data, the multi-time scale variations of Somali jet are analyzed synthetically. The jet’s influences on rainfall in China on interannual, interdecadal and sub-monthly scales are also studied using correlation and composite analyses. The results demonstrate that the interdecadal variations of the jet are significant.The Somali jet became weaker in the 1960 s and became the weakest in the early 1970 s before enhancing slowly in the late 1970 s. Moreover, the relation between the Somali jet and summer precipitation in China is close, but varies on different timescales. Preliminary analysis shows that the intensity variations in May and June during the early days of establishment are well correlated with summer precipitation in China. The Somali jet intensity on the interdecadal scale is closely related with interdecadal variations of the precipitation in China. Regardless of leading or contemporaneous correlation, the correlations between the Somali jet intensity and the rainfall in northern and southern China show obvious interdecadal variations. Moreover, the link between the anomalies of the jet intensity in May-August and precipitation evolution on synoptic scale in China is further studied. China has more rainfall with positive anomalies of the Somali jet but less rainfall with negative anomalies during the active period of the jet. The influence of positive Somali jet anomalies on China precipitation is more evident.     

冬季北太平洋海气环流年代际异常的统计动力诊断

本文对冬季北太平洋大气和大洋环流做了联合复经验正交函数(CEOF)分解和小波分析, 并分别讨论了第一、二模态的年代际变化及其与海表温度异常(SSTA)年代际变化(PDO、NPGO模态)的关系, 得到以下主要结论:第一、二模态对时间系数的分析显示, 其与PDO、NPGO指数的相关性较高, 且小波分析表明其分别具有明显的准22、12年的年代际变化周期, 这与PDO、NPGO模态的周期相同;第一、二模态时间系数对北太平洋SSTA的回归分析表明, 其回归系数场的空间分布分别与PDO、NPGO的十分接近。第一、二模态空间场中大气环流异常分别类似于海平面气压异常(SLPA)的AL、NPO模态, 可分称其为AL、NPO的风场模;而大洋环流异常则分别相应于SSTA的PDO、NPGO模态, 可称其为PDO、NPGO的流场模。由第一、二模态近表层流场异常得到的垂直运动空间分布分别与PDO、NPGO的空间结构相似, 说明海洋上层海盆尺度大洋环流引起的垂直运动所导致的海温动力变化是形成PDO、NPGO的重要原因, 而大洋环流异常扮演着中介角色。     

Variations and statistical probability characteristic analysis of extreme precipitation events under climate change in Haihe River Basin,China

The magnitude and frequency of regional extreme precipitation events may have variability under climate change. This study investigates the time–space variability and statistical probability characteristics of extreme precipitation under climate change in the Haihe River Basin. Hydrological alteration diagnosis methods are implemented to detect the occurrence time, style and degree of alteration such as trend and jump in the extreme precipitation series, and stationarity and serial independence are tested prior to frequency analysis. Then, the historical extreme precipitation frequency and spatio‐temporal variations analyses are conducted via generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. Furthermore, the occurrence frequency of extreme precipitation events in future is analysed on the basis of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change multi‐mode climate models under different greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRES‐A2, A1B and B1). Results indicate that (1) in the past, alteration of extreme precipitation mainly occurred in the area north of 38°N. Decreasing trends of extreme precipitation are detected at most stations, whereas jump alteration is not obvious at most stations. (2) Spatial variation of estimated extreme precipitation under different return periods shows similarity. Bounded by the Taihang Mountain–Yan Mountain, extreme rainfall in the Haihe River Basin gradually reduces from the southeast to the northwest, which is consistent with the geographical features of the Haihe River Basin. (3) In the future, extreme precipitation with return period 5–20 years accounts for a significant portion of the total occurrence times. The frequency of extreme precipitation events has an increase trend under A1B and A2 scenarios. The total occurrence times of extreme precipitation under A1B senario are not more than that under B1 senario until the 2030s. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论重力归算

利用构造参考地球模型的观点解释重力归算的物理意义。通过对不同模型的比较表明,厘米级大地水准面的确定必须考虑地球内部质量分布的不均匀性，且密度数据的精度应达到0.001 g/cm ³。     

重力极潮的小波分析

分别分析Brussels台站的观测记录,首先扣除数据序列中的合成潮得到重力残差,接着用小波带通滤波器将残差滤波,得到256～512 d时间尺度上的序列,然后运用最小二乘法估算Chandler和周年项的潮汐因子.由于小波滤波器能更有效地消除仪器漂移,计算结果具有更小的均方差,更加可靠.     

Comment on " Volume of magma accumulation or withdrawal estimated from surface uplift or subsidence, with application to the 1960 collapse of Kīlauea volcano" by P. T. Delaney and D. F. McTigue

 In volcanoes that store a significant quantity of magma within a subsurface summit reservoir, such as Kīlauea, bulk compression of stored magma is an important mode of deformation. Accumulation of magma is also accompanied by crustal deformation, usually manifested at the surface as uplift. These two modes of deformation – bulk compression of resident magma and deformation of the volcanic edifice – act in concert to accommodate the volume of newly added magma. During deflation, the processes reverse and reservoir magma undergoes bulk decompression, the chamber contracts, and the ground surface subsides. Because magma compression plays a role in creating subsurface volume to accommodate magma, magma budget estimates that are derived from surface uplift observations without consideration of magma compression will underestimate actual magma volume changes. Received: 30 September 1998 / Accepted: 27 July 1999     

由PREM模型参数计算地球自转的周期变化

弹性地球在日月引潮力势作用下的形变引起其转动惯量的改变，从而导致地球自转速率的变化．本文利用PREM地球模型所给的物质密度和弹性等参数分布．计算日月引潮力势产生的地球形变附加势，进而计算转动惯量的变化．最后得到一系列包含周期同引潮势带谐项、振幅大于1微秒的自转速率周期变化系数．