GIS and ANN model for landslide susceptibility mapping

1 IntroductionThe population growth and the expansion of settlements and life-lines over hazardous areas exert increasingly great impact of natural disasters both in the developed and developing countries. In many countries, the economic losses and casualties due to landslides are greater than commonly recognized and generate a yearly loss of property larger than that from any other natural disasters, including earthquakes, floods and windstorms. Landslides in mountainous terrain often occur a…     

云南鲁甸M_S6.5地震红石岩滑坡稳定性的数值模拟

2014年8月3日鲁甸MS6.5地震触发了大量的滑坡崩塌,其中,位于鲁甸县李家山村和巧家县红石岩村交界处的牛栏江干流北岸的红石岩滑坡规模巨大,与此处位于左岸的红石岩古滑坡体的前缘部分一起堵塞了牛栏江而形成高达120m、体积达1 200×104m3的大型堰塞体。通过震后开展的野外实地调查,获得了红石岩滑坡发生处的地形地貌、地质构造、岩体结构及物质组成等资料。以这些第一手资料为基础,构建了红石岩滑坡的边坡模型,并应用边坡稳定性分析软件Geo Studio中Slope/W模块分别计算了红石岩滑坡体震前坡体安全系数和地震作用下的坡体安全系数。结果表明,红石岩滑坡体发生处的坡体安全系数在地震前为1.450,处于相对稳定状态,而鲁甸地震的地震动作用则使坡体的安全系数降低至0.962,直接导致红石岩坡体的失稳。文中进一步讨论了坡体滑动面的存在与否对坡体稳定性的影响:安全系数计算的结果表明,在中强地震作用下,先存滑动面的存在是导致大型滑坡形成的重要条件;对于高陡岩质边坡,如果没有先存滑动面,只可能形成浅表性滑坡。     

analyses on the triggering facrors of large quantities of landslides in the upper reaches of the minjiang river,sichuan province

Over the past geological and historical period, tens of thousands of landslides occurred in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, an area which is characterized by alpine valleys and has been densely populated over the past several hundreds of years. Discussing the triggering factor of these landslides is of great significance to geological hazard mitigation and prevention in this region. In this paper, we focus on four aspects of regional rainfall, shape features of landslide slopes, the corresponding relationship between landslide area and earthquake magnitude, and the recurring features of the reconstructed palaeoearthquake record at Diexi. Compared with those in Nepal, both mean seasonal rainfall accumulation and mean daily rainfall for the past 30 years are too low to reach the threshold values triggering landslides in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River. Secondly, landslides in the study area are usually absent of inner gorges(canyon topography)on the hillslope toes, which are confirmed in previous studies as typical features of landslides triggered by storms. Thirdly, wide distribution of the landslides in the study area supports our notion of earthquake-triggering because the landslides triggered by storms commonly distribute locally. Fourthly, periodicity analysis of the reconstructed palaeoearthquake record at Diexi provides a few cycles of twenty to thirty years, possibly corresponding to the earthquakes of magnitudes>5.0 or 5.5 which are believed to have caused soft-sediment deformation in the study area. In contrast, like the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the average recurrence interval of the large earthquakes in the study area is 2.6ka. They caused tens of thousands of landslides and provided more coarse silt particles for the nearby lake sediments at least in 330 years for each time. This is consistent with exponential increase of earthquake magnitude from large to medium and of the landslide area with the increased earthquake magnitude. To sum up, we suggest that tens of thousands of landslides in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River were most likely triggered by earthquakes instead of storms. This preliminary viewpoint needs further examination in the future.     

2014年云南鲁甸地震和景谷地震的震害对比研究

2014年8月3日云南鲁甸发生MS6.5地震,10月7日云南景谷发生MS6.6地震。这2次地震的震级、地震类型、震源深度等相差不大,但地震所造成的人员伤亡、房屋建筑损毁程度、地震地质灾害等却相差很大。在地震现场调查资料的基础上,对比分析地震造成的崩塌、滑坡、地裂缝、砂土液化、房屋建筑损毁等灾害轻重差别的主要原因。研究表明,鲁甸地震灾区地质构造复杂,地层破碎,人口密度大,房屋建筑抗震性能差;而景谷地震灾区地质环境较好,植被茂密,人口密度低,相比同量级地震的加速度小,房屋建筑结构抗震性能较好。总体而言,鲁甸MS6.5地震的震害比景谷MS6.6地震要严重得多。     

微型抗滑桩单桩设计计算模型及算法研究

考虑微型桩与周围岩土体间摩擦力的作用,提出了一种新的微型抗滑桩单桩设计计算模型,并给出了具体算法。由微型桩加固滑坡体的变形特点,分析微型桩与岩土体之间的相互作用机制,将微型桩与周围岩土体的摩擦作用引入其受力分析中;根据微型桩上各部分受力特点的不同,将微型桩分成上部摩擦受拉段、中部滑坡推力作用段和下部锚固段3段进行分析,推导了微型桩总的变形控制方程及各分段的变形控制方程;采用初参数法对控制方程进行求解,得到了微型抗滑桩上的内力分布及变形规律。计算结果表明,在滑坡推力作用下,微型桩的变形主要发生在滑面附近及以上桩段,滑面附近桩段将产生较大的内力和弯曲变形,受拉段弯曲变形较小,近似水平移动;桩与岩土体间的摩擦力是微型桩与周围岩土体相互作用的重要组成部分,摩擦力的作用能显著减小微型桩的弯曲变形,有效控制滑坡体的位移。     

牵引式滑坡推力计算方法研究

三峡工程运行期间引发大量库区滑坡地质灾害,由于库区水位及降雨等联合影响,使得牵引式滑坡在库区滑坡中占有相当的比例。通过对库区牵引式滑坡形成机制研究,根据变形破坏模式,把牵引式滑坡分为牵引区（初始滑动区）和被牵引区,分析牵引式滑坡在演化过程中牵引区滑体与被牵引区滑体之间的相互依存关系,针对其相互作用力学特征建立合理的物理和数学力学计算模型,初步推导牵引式滑坡推力计算公式,为抗滑桩设计提供合理的设计推力。以三峡库区朱家店牵引式滑坡为例,在确定被牵引区滑体对牵引区滑体存在推力作用情况下,通过推力计算表明,推导出的公式计算得到牵引区滑体的设计推力比单独计算牵引区滑体设计推力更大,相比将牵引区滑体和被牵引区滑体视为整体计算设计推力更小,说明此方法计算的推力用于抗滑结构设计可以达到既安全又经济的效果,为牵引式滑坡治理设计提供新的思路。     

Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation

In this study we develop an empirical method to estimate the volume threshold for predicting coseismic landslide dam formation using landscape parameters obtained from digital elevation models (DEMs). We hypothesize that the potential runout and volume of landslides, together with river features, determine the likelihood of the formation of a landslide dam. To develop this method, a database was created by randomly selecting 140 damming and 200 non‐damming landslides from 501 landslide dams and > 60 000 landslides induced by the M_w 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. We used this database to parameterize empirical runout models by stepwise multivariate regression. We find that factors controlling landslide runout are landslide initiation volume, landslide type, internal relief (H) and the H/L ratio (between H and landslide horizontal distance to river, L). In order to obtain a first volume threshold for a landslide to reach a river, the runout regression equations were converted into inverse volume equations by taking the runout to be the distance to river. A second volume threshold above which a landslide is predicted to block a river was determined by the correlation between river width and landslide volume of the known damming landslides. The larger of these two thresholds was taken as the final damming threshold. This method was applied to several landslide types over a fine geographic grid of assumed initiation points in a selected catchment. The overall prediction accuracy was 97.4% and 86.0% for non‐damming and damming landslides, respectively. The model was further tested by predicting the damming landslides over the whole region, with promising results. We conclude that our method is robust and reliable for the Wenchuan event. In combination with pre‐event landslide susceptibility and frequency–size assessments, it can be used to predict likely damming locations of future coseismic landslides, thereby helping to plan emergency response. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How hydrological factors initiate instability in a model sandy slope

Knowledge of the mechanisms of rain‐induced shallow landslides can improve the prediction of their occurrence and mitigate subsequent sediment disasters. Here, we examine an artificial slope's subsurface hydrology and propose a new slope stability analysis that includes seepage force and the down‐slope transfer of excess shear forces. We measured pore water pressure and volumetric water content immediately prior to a shallow landslide on an artificial sandy slope of 32°: The direction of the subsurface flow shifted from downward to parallel to the slope in the deepest part of the landslide mass, and this shift coincided with the start of soil displacement. A slope stability analysis that was restricted to individual segments of the landslide mass could not explain the initiation of the landslide; however, inclusion of the transfer of excess shear forces from up‐slope to down‐slope segments improved drastically the predictability. The improved stability analysis revealed that an unstable zone expanded down‐slope with an increase in soil water content, showing that the down‐slope soil initially supported the unstable up‐slope soil; destabilization of this down‐slope soil was the eventual trigger of total slope collapse. Initially, the effect of apparent soil cohesion was the most important factor promoting slope stability, but seepage force became the most important factor promoting slope instability closer to the landslide occurrence. These findings indicate that seepage forces, controlled by changes in direction and magnitude of saturated and unsaturated subsurface flows, may be the main cause of shallow landslides in sandy slopes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

宽频带地震台网在滑坡地质灾害监测预报中的应用

在千将坪滑坡前地震动事件分析基础上,总结滑坡前滑坡体内部岩体形变和破裂所产生地震信号的典型特征,并建立宽频带地震台,对金坪子滑坡体和早谷田危岩体进行监测实验,提取基岩类、土质类和危岩体类3种基本物质组成滑坡的微振动前兆信息特征,为地震台网在滑坡监测预报中的应用推广和监测预报系统软件的研制奠定基础.根据测震学原理,研发滑坡监测分析系统软件（Smas）,可为滑坡大规模活动前快速预警.