地理省情监测变化统计分析系统的设计与实现——以山东省为例

地理省情监测成果是国家重要的数据资源,对其变化内容进行统计分析,是掌握地表自然和人文地理要素变化的基础。伴随山东省地理省情监测工作的不断深入,目前山东省已积累了大量地理省情监测数据。为实现山东省地理省情监测数据的有效管理及科学利用,并综合考虑山东省省级地理信息时空大数据中心的相关要求。该文基于共享文件系统的分布式存储,利用空间统计、任务并行等技术模型,设计了地理省情监测变化统计分析系统,通过对比监测区域内多时态、多版本、多年份数据,发现不同版本数据之间的差异,实现对地理省情数据要素级、地类级变化情况的监测。该文从系统总体设计、关键技术等方面阐述了地理省情监测变化统计分析系统的设计与实现情况。     

1959-2008年广西西江流域洪涝气候特征

 利用1959-2008年西江流域气象测站降水资料、西江干流及其支流年最高水位资料,建立逐年洪涝发生站次序列,并分析其时空特征和演变规律。结果表明：西江干流发生洪涝的频率比各支流大,各支流的中下游发生洪涝频率比上游大;西江流域洪涝的发生站次具有较显著的阶段性和突变性特征,主要突变发生在1967年和1993年;近16 a洪涝发生频率显著偏多,流域性大洪涝基本集中在这一时期。了解西江流域洪涝变化的规律,有利于提高洪涝灾害评估和预测水平,为防灾减灾提供科学依据。     

集合预报风场扰动的物理结构及演变特征

初始扰动结构和振幅的合理性直接影响到集合预报的质量和整体性能,合理的初始扰动结构是确保集合预报扰动质量的关键.本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心数据、我国T639全球集合预报系统以及GRAPES区域集合预报系统的预报场,针对模式初值不确定性,主要研究了风场初始扰动结构及其集合离散度、扰动能量等结构和演变特征,分析了集合预报风...     

秦岭勉略缝合带组成与古洋盆演化

秦岭勉略构造带是典型的蛇绿构造混杂岩带,带内组成复杂、变形强烈,其主导构造样式表现为以系列北倾逆冲断层为格架,不同岩片推覆叠置的叠瓦状构造。详细的组成及构造研究表明,缝合带由洋盆形成演化不同阶段、不同性质的陆缘沉积岩系、不同类型蛇绿岩以及洋盆俯冲－碰撞造山过程中以不同方式出露的构造岩块组成,同时区域地层对比表明勉略古洋盆形成过程具有自西而东“剪刀式”打开扩展的性质与特点。     

The local far-infrared galaxy colour–luminosity distribution: a reference for BLAST and Herschel/SPIRE submillimetre surveys

We measure the local galaxy far-infrared (FIR) 60 to 100 μm colour–luminosity distribution using an all-sky IRAS survey. This distribution is an important reference for the next generation of FIR–submillimetre surveys that have and will conduct deep extragalactic surveys at 250–500 μm. With the peak in dust-obscured star-forming activity leading to present-day giant ellipticals now believed to occur in submillimetre galaxies near   z ∼ 2.5  , these new FIR–submillimetre surveys will directly sample the spectral energy distributions of these distant objects at rest-frame FIR wavelengths similar to those at which local galaxies were observed by IRAS . We have taken care to correct for the temperature bias and the evolution effects in our IRAS 60-μm-selected sample. We verify that our colour–luminosity distribution is consistent with the measurements of the local FIR luminosity function, before applying it to the higher redshift Universe. We compare our colour–luminosity correlation with recent dust–temperature measurements of submillimetre galaxies and find evidence for pure luminosity evolution of the form  (1 + z )³  . This distribution will be useful for the development of evolutionary models for Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope (BLAST) and Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE) surveys as it provides a statistical distribution of the rest-frame dust temperatures for galaxies as a function of luminosity.     

The role of minor mergers in the recent star formation history of early-type galaxies

We demonstrate that the large scatter in the ultraviolet (UV) colours of intermediate-mass early-type galaxies in the local Universe and the inferred low-level recent star formation (RSF) in these objects can be reproduced by minor mergers in the standard Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology. Numerical simulations of mergers with mass ratios ≤1:4, with reasonable assumptions for the ages, metallicities and dust properties of the merger progenitors, produce good agreement with the observed UV colours of the early-type population, if the infalling satellites are assumed to have (cold) gas fractions ≥20 per cent. Early-types that satisfy  ( NUV − r ) ≲ 3.8  are likely to have experienced mergers with mass ratios between 1:4 and 1:6 within the last ∼1.5 Gyr, while those that satisfy  3.8 < ( NUV − r ) < 5.5  are consistent with either recent mergers with mass ratios ≤1:6 or mergers with higher mass ratios that occurred more than ∼1.5 Gyr in the past. We demonstrate that the early-type colour–magnitude relations and colour distributions, in both the UV and optical spectral ranges, are consistent with the expected frequency of minor merging activity in the standard ΛCDM cosmology at low redshift. We present a strong plausibility argument for minor mergers to be the principal mechanism behind the large UV scatter and associated low-level RSF observed in early-type galaxies in the nearby Universe.