Paleofire reconstruction for high-elevation forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, with implications for wildfire synchrony and climate variability in the late Holocene

Here, we present two high-resolution records of macroscopic charcoal from high-elevation lake sites in the Sierra Nevada, California, and evaluate the synchroneity of fire response for east- and west-side subalpine forests during the past 9200 yr. Charcoal influx was low between 11,200 and 8000 cal yr BP when vegetation consisted of sparse Pinus-dominated forest and montane chaparral shrubs. High charcoal influx after ∼ 8000 cal yr BP marks the arrival of Tsuga mertensiana and Abies magnifica, and a higher-than-present treeline that persisted into the mid-Holocene. Coeval decreases in fire episode frequency coincide with neoglacial advances and lower treeline in the Sierra Nevada after 3800 cal yr BP. Independent fire response occurs between 9200 and 5000 cal yr BP, and significant synchrony at 100- to 1000-yr timescales emerges between 5000 cal yr BP and the present, especially during the last 2500 yr. Indistinguishable fire-return interval distributions and synchronous fires show that climatic control of fire became increasingly important during the late Holocene. Fires after 1200 cal yr BP are often synchronous and corroborate with inferred droughts. Holocene fire activity in the high Sierra Nevada is driven by changes in climate linked to insolation and appears to be sensitive to the dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

国土资源网格化管理与服务系统的设计与实现

从地学网格的基本概念出发,提出了由网络层、数据层与应用层以及安全保障和标准化体系构成的国土资源管理与服务系统总体框架。探索了国土资源网格化管理的运行模式,明确了不同角色在网格化管理中的职责。对于网格化管理中的数据更新机制、更新流程和更新方式进行了详细的探讨。最后,文章结合东莞市的实际设计并实现了国土资源网格化管理与服务系统原型。     

GIS支持下珠江三角洲城镇建筑覆盖变化遥感监测分析

从珠江三角洲区域总体出发，探讨大范围城镇建筑覆盖变化的遥感监测方法。分析了城镇建筑覆盖变化专题信息提取方法概况，比较了最大似然法、上下文分类法、人工神经网络三种分类方法的优缺点。借助GIS技术的术持，在计算机自动分类的基础上利用专家知识改进了分类结果。根据遥感监测结果，对1988—1998年间珠江三角洲城镇建筑覆盖变化特征进行了分析。     

Environmental stress and agricultural landownership in Africa

We examine how weather variability affects agricultural landownership rates in Africa, where at least half of the population depends on agriculture to earn a livelihood. In the absence of effective adaptation strategies, households that experience difficulties farming due to environmental stress might leave their land. With implications for demography – through migration – and political instability – when affected populations express grievances – changing landownership patterns could make existing development challenges on the continent even more difficult. We test our hypothesis that drier than average growing seasons will reduce landownership rates using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Our DHS dataset includes interviews with 850,961 households in 35 African countries between 2005 and 2017. Compared to regions experiencing weather near the historical average, those with five consecutive dry growing seasons before the DHS experienced a 6.93% decline in the landownership rate. For every additional dry growing season during the five years before each survey, the landownership rate fell by 1.38%. A host of robustness checks support our general conclusion that drying conditions are associated with lower landownership rates.     

Social and structural vulnerabilities: Associations with disaster readiness

The ability to plan for a disaster is associated with a range of contextual factors and often traverses several sites of inequities, including sociodemographic and institutional disparities. While multiple studies have investigated the relationship of housing insecurity with adverse outcomes after a disaster, fewer studies have examined how housing insecurity is associated with disaster preparedness. This paper hypothesizes social and structural vulnerabilities to be directly associated with preparedness. Housing insecurity is posited to have both direct and multiplicative effects with social vulnerability on the dependent variable. We use nationally representative data from the 2017 American Housing Survey. The final weighted study sample consisted of 29,070 housing units, with 52% male and 48% female householders. Fifty-seven percent of the population was not prepared with food, water, emergency funds, and transportation. Housing security and quality emerged as important conditions for households to be better prepared. Further, housing insecurity moderated the relationship between some social vulnerability factors and preparedness. The study helps identify where resources and research funds should be targeted to reduce multidimensional vulnerabilities before a disaster. Safe and affordable housing is central to climate and environmental justice; centering disaster readiness, response, and climate action across policy agendas is vital.     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

极端降水事件变化的观测研究

利用湖北1961—2014年站点逐日降水资料及人口和人口城乡构成数据,通过平均值分离、最小二乘法拟合、趋势系数和气候倾向率分析、M-K检验和累积距平检验等方法,从时空分布、趋势变化、局地特征等方面,分析了近54 a湖北极端降水的变化特征及其与城市化的关系,结果表明：(1)对于第95百分位的极端降水事件,湖北极端降水阈值的范围为43.5~85.1 mm,大部分站的阈值在暴雨雨量范围,高阈值区位于江汉平原和鄂东,低阈值区位于鄂西北,最高阈值出现在武汉站,最低阈值出现在竹山站和房县站。(2)近54 a来湖北多年平均的极端降水日(D_ep)、极端降水量(P_ep)、极端降水强度(I_ep)、最大5 d降水(R_{5 d})和雨量比均存在明显的区域特征,但I_ep、R_{5 d}的地域差异不如D_ep、P_ep明显。鄂西南南部以及鄂东南东部和南部是极端降水事件的高发区,鄂西北北部是极端降水事件的低发区。(3)极端降水指数(R)能反映极端降水的强弱,其大尺度存在明显的年际差异,而长期变化趋势不显著,P_ep、I_ep和雨量比呈弱增加趋势,R_{5 d}和极端降水频数呈弱减少趋势。(4)城市化发展速度会改变R及其局地距平百分比DR_ij、趋势系数和气候倾向率的空间分布。随着城市化发展速度加快,湖北城市“雨岛效应”的格局发生了变化,D_ep、P_ep、I_ep、R_{5 d}及其DR_ij从南北差异明显变为东西差异明显,江汉平原和鄂东的D_ep、P_ep、I_ep、R_{5 d}增加,而鄂西南的减少,且四者趋势系数通过显著性水平检验的站点数更多,气候倾向率绝对值也普遍增大,但大部分站点的变化趋势为负值。(5)湖北极端降水具有明显的城市效应,城市化发展速度较快的大城市代表站的极端降水阈值大于配对的小城市代表站,两种代表站平均的D_ep、P_ep、I_ep、R_{5 d}的年际变化较一致,但大城市代表站的I_ep、R_{5 d}普遍较大,极端降水的变化趋势更明显。

     

设防水准对框架-剪力墙结构土建成本的影响

本文按不同设防烈度设计10层框架-剪力墙结构,计算其不同设防烈度下的土建成本。在设防烈度8度以下,设防水准提高一个等级,土建成本增加比例小于8.61%,增加成本占房屋售价的比例小于0.75%。采用框架-剪力墙结构土建成本较小的增加,可获得设防水准一个等级的提高。从另一个角度说,在减少建筑面积很小的情况下,房屋的抗震设防水准可获得一个等级的提高。     

泥炭地碳源汇功能与“双碳”目标

自工业革命以来, 大气中CO2浓度快速升高导致了全球变暖, 并引发了一系列气候和环境问题。应对气候变化、实现"碳达峰与碳中和"(以下简称"双碳")已成为世界各国共同倡导的目标; 而理解自然系统的碳源汇功能, 对实现这一目标具有重要的意义。泥炭地是世界上分布最为广泛的湿地类型, 对全球碳循环和气候变化有着十分重要的影响, 其在实现"双碳"目标中的重要性受到越来越多的关注, 这也使泥炭地碳循环研究成为前沿领域。本文简要回顾了国内外泥炭地碳循环的研究现状, 阐述了泥炭地的碳源汇特征(包括CO2净交换、CH4排放、溶解有机碳迁移、碳累积)、变化及驱动机制, 并对其在实现"双碳"目标中的作用进行了分析。总体来说, 泥炭地碳循环对全球碳源汇估算具有重要的影响, 未来需进一步加强对泥炭地分布和碳库的研究, 强化泥炭地生态环境演变规律、碳循环-相关过程对气候变化的敏感度以及研究薄弱地区等的针对性研究。在此基础上, 科学地可持续管理和恢复退化泥炭地, 如人为水文调节, 以保持甚至增加其碳汇潜力和储存碳的稳定性, 可发挥泥炭地在"双碳"时代的最大碳汇潜力, 也将是减缓气候变暖经济而高效的途径之一。