基于批判地缘政治学视角解读经典地缘政治理论

大国间的争霸与兴衰更替,无不受地缘法则的支配。地理学者应紧跟时代的步伐,准确把握国家利益之所在,抓住机遇为民族伟大复兴做出贡献。但是,缺乏对地缘政治学的历史和哲学的批判将不能准确理解和有效实践地缘政治理论。本文简要介绍了批判地缘政治学的发展,总结了批判地缘政治学的3个特点,据此对4个经典地缘政治理论进行了解读。为了简化解读过程,首先提出了一个解读4个经典地缘政治理论的分析框架;其次根据这个分析框架重点解读了麦金德的"历史的地理枢纽";最后对4个经典地缘政治理论进行了批判性总结。通过批判性解读,得出经典地缘政治理论既有科学性一面,也有假说性和理念性的一面。经典地缘政治理论构建是基于国际地缘格局、国家利益空间分布、国家间空间冲突而构建的,并展现了理论建构者的身份,体现了地缘政治理论的历史性、社会性、情境性和地理知识—权力结构。     

Land use/land cover change detection and prediction in the north-western coastal desert of Egypt using Markov-CA

Detecting land-use change has become of concern to environmentalists, conservationists and land use planners due to its impact on natural ecosystems. We studied land use/land cover (LULC) changes in part of the northwestern desert of Egypt and used the Markov-CA integrated approach to predict future changes. We mapped the LULC distribution of the desert landscape for 1988, 1999, and 2011. Landsat Thematic Mapper 5 data and ancillary data were classified using the random forests approach. The technique produced LULC maps with an overall accuracy of more than 90%. Analysis of LULC classes from the three dates revealed that the study area was subjected to three different stages of modification, each dominated by different land uses. The use of a spatially explicit land use change modeling approach, such as Markov-CA approach, provides ways for projecting different future scenarios. Markov-CA was used to predict land use change in 2011 and project changes in 2023 by extrapolating current trends. The technique was successful in predicting LULC distribution in 2011 and the results were comparable to the actual LULC for 2011. The projected LULC for 2023 revealed more urbanization of the landscape with potential expansion in the croplands westward and northward, an increase in quarries, and growth in residential centers. The outcomes can help management activities directed toward protection of wildlife in the area. The study can also be used as a guide to other studies aiming at projecting changes in arid areas experiencing similar land use changes.     

东北区耕地利用系统安全格局模拟及其阈值的确定

耕地利用系统安全是保护耕地健康和保障粮食安全的基础。以东北区黑龙江省巴彦县为研究区,运用Matlab编程,应用改进的神经网络模式识别模型,模拟研究区2016年和2021年耕地利用系统安全格局。基于突变理论,采用蝴蝶突变模型确定耕地利用系统安全阈值范围。结果表明:1影响耕地利用系统安全的空间因子,在一定程度上对研究区耕地利用系统安全格局的演变产生极大的影响;各类土地利用类型的数量增减及空间分布均会对耕地利用系统安全格局的变化产生一定影响。2 1976-2011年,耕地利用系统安全格局发生了显著变化,按照当前发展状况,2011-2021年,耕地面积和建设用地面积的变化呈现互反性,建设用地及其他农用地的增加均以牺牲耕地为代价,未达到保护耕地的目的。3耕地利用系统安全状态划分为安全状态、临界状态和危险状态三种;安全状态阈值范围为[-1,-0.2),临界状态阈值范围为[-0.2,0.2),危险状态阈值范围为[0.2,1]。4按照当前的发展态势,若不采取适当措施,耕地利用系统安全将向危险状态突变,耕地利用系统安全问题日益严峻。     

中国经济空间格局演化与区域产业变迁——基于1952～2010年省区经济份额变动的实证分析

从区域经济份额变化出发,分析了1952~2010年中国经济空间格局的演化过程。通过有序样本聚类的方法,将省区经济份额变动划分了8个阶段,并采用偏离-份额法分析了不同阶段驱动省区经济份额上升的产业及其变迁,以及与区域产业结构和竞争优势变化的关系。研究发现,1949年以来中国区域经济布局总体上经历了沿海-内地均衡发展、沿海化非均衡发展以及东、中、西部相对均衡发展的过程,且整体上区域经济份额变动趋于减小。1979年以前,不同区域的经济份额在不同阶段变化差异较大,主要由第一和第二产业驱动。1979年以后,区域经济格局呈现明显的沿海化趋势,但驱动产业在不同阶段有所变化。2001年以来,中国区域经济格局经历了重大调整,经济份额上升的省区明显由东部向中、西部地区转移。东部省区在第二产业上仍具有明显的结构优势,但第二产业竞争优势已由东部向中、西部地区转移。东部的北京、上海、广东在第三产业上呈现更加显著的结构优势,显示出结构升级和服务化的发展态势。     

容积率地价修正系数实证研究

以66个城市容积率地价修正系数为样本,以容积率比值和地价修正系数的关系为基础,对样本容积率地价修正系数进行归纳分析。部分样本存在标准容积率设定不规范、地价修正系数表现形式不科学、修正系数上限过低等问题。提出了编制容积率地价修正系数应注意的问题,并建议修订《城镇土地估价规程》(GB/T 18508—2014),在其中增加标准容积率设定方法、容积率地价修正系数编制方法等内容,增强《城镇土地估价规程》的指导作用,提高容积率地价修正系数的科学性和实用性。     

异质性农户土地流转的决定性因素与政策建议

建立异质性农户土地流转行为的理论分析基础,利用Logistic回归分析方法和河南省调查数据,明确农户土地流转决策的影响因素。研究结果表明:农村信贷市场约束是纯农户、以农业收入为主的农户转入土地的需求不足的重要原因;规避就业风险和争夺土地租金是非农户和以非农业收入为主的农户转出土地的供给不足的主要原因;土地控制权偏好与生存预期造成中年、老年农户竭力排斥土地流转;农村土地流转不活跃的决定性因素是国家保护农业与有效管理兼业农户、非农户的责任缺位。     

中国南方湿润区“荒漠化”问题讨论

荒漠化是当今世界所面临的严重的环境与社会经济问题,推进荒漠化研究工作对于保护生态环境,促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。本文在对荒漠化内涵进行系统回顾的基础上,认为除了人为干扰叠加气候性干旱作用导致的荒漠化之外,南方湿润区因水土流失叠加物理性干旱作用导致的极端土地退化也是一种荒漠化,并从物质基础、气候条件、影响因子、形成营力、核心作用和地表过程方面进行比较,最后以南方红层区特殊的"红层荒漠化"为案例,利用实地调查和TM影像的植被覆盖度指标VFC对1992-2013年红层土地退化进行分析。结果显示,在人为反复干扰和其他自然因素作用下地表植被持续退化、群落干旱趋势明显,表土层流失,岩石风化加剧,以致形成类似"荒漠"景观的现象。红层区的退化过程可类比于喀斯特石漠化、红壤山地丘陵退化,但这类极端土地退化现象可否视为"荒漠化",有待于进一步的深入研究。     

Land desertification and restoration in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterized by high population growth, degraded and fragile nat-ural ecosystems, and a limited amount of arable lands. It is one of the most water-sc...     

Satellite monitoring of urbanization and environmental impacts—A comparison of Stockholm and Shanghai

This study investigates urbanization and its potential environmental consequences in Shanghai and Stockholm metropolitan areas over two decades. Changes in land use/land cover are estimated from support vector machine classifications of Landsat mosaics with grey-level co-occurrence matrix features. Landscape metrics are used to investigate changes in landscape composition and configuration and to draw preliminary conclusions about environmental impacts. Speed and magnitude of urbanization is calculated by urbanization indices and the resulting impacts on the environment are quantified by ecosystem services. Growth of urban areas and urban green spaces occurred at the expense of cropland in both regions. Alongside a decrease in natural land cover, urban areas increased by approximately 120% in Shanghai, nearly ten times as much as in Stockholm, where the most significant land cover change was a 12% urban expansion that mostly replaced agricultural areas. From the landscape metrics results, it appears that fragmentation in both study regions occurred mainly due to the growth of high density built-up areas in previously more natural/agricultural environments, while the expansion of low density built-up areas was for the most part in conjunction with pre-existing patches. Urban growth resulted in ecosystem service value losses of approximately 445 million US dollars in Shanghai, mostly due to the decrease in natural coastal wetlands while in Stockholm the value of ecosystem services changed very little. Total urban growth in Shanghai was 1768 km² and 100 km² in Stockholm. The developed methodology is considered a straight-forward low-cost globally applicable approach to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate urban growth patterns that could help to address spatial, economic and ecological questions in urban and regional planning.