对秦岭造山带几个重大问题的认识

详细讨论了秦岭一大别造山带的几个重大问题，对它的发展阶段进行了新的划分，对其形成发表了新的观点：认为秦岭造山带、华北板块、扬子板块是中生代以来，在抽拉－逆冲岩片构造体制作用下形成的。对秦岭一大别造山带的表层构造特征以及它和深层构造的关系、花岗岩的成因类型、断层与界面的区分及成矿作用等都提出了和以往不同的认识。     

利用高分辨率TerraSAR-X影像监测唐山矿地面沉降

利用2012-12~2014-02获取的13景高分辨率TerraSAR-X影像,采用PSI时序分析技术监测唐山矿地面沉降。该技术以短时空基线为准则生成47幅差分干涉图,选择强度稳定性和频谱相干性较高的相干目标进行时间序列分析,基于最小二乘法获取唐山矿区域相干目标的地面下沉速率和沉降时间序列。结果表明,唐山矿有两个地面沉降中心,分别位于矿区东北和西部方向,最大沉降速率达58.2 mm/a;2013-06~09矿区出现回弹现象,而在其他时间段内地面呈近似线性下沉。通过对比高程误差改正前后的直方图可以发现,本文采用的两次回归分析方法对降低地形残余误差有很好的应用效果。     

Impact factors on distribution and characteristics of natural plant community in reclamation zones of Changjiang River estuary

To identify impact factors on the distribution and characters of natural plants community in reclamation area, with survey data from 67 plant quadrats in July 2009, soil properties data from 216 sampling points in April 2009, and TM (30 m) data in 2006, the composition and characteristics of natural plants community in different time of the Fengxian area in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary were analyzed with two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN), multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), detrended canonical correspondence analysis (DCCA) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). The results show that: 1) The plant communities in the reclaimed area are mainly mesophytes and helophytic-mesophytic transitional communities, showing a gradient distribution trend with the change in reclamation years. Species richness (MA), species diversity (H) and above-ground biomass also increase with the increase of reclamation years. Nevertheless, they appear to decline slightly in the middle and late reclamation period (> 30 years). 2) With the rise in land use levels, the changes in species richness and species diversity tend to increase at first and then decrease; species dominance (D), however, tends to decline; and above-ground biomass increases slightly. 3) The distribution of the plant community is mainly influenced by the following factors: land use levels (R = 0.55, p < 0.05), soil moisture (R = 0.53, p < 0.05), soil salinity (R = 0.43, p < 0.05) and reclamation time (R = 0.40, p < 0.05).     

中国区域近地面CO2时空分布特征研究

本文利用2009年6月至2010年5月日本宇宙航空研究开发机构（JAXA）、日本环境署（MOE）与日本环境研究（NIES）所等联合开发的全球首颗专用温室气体观测卫星“呼吸号”（GOSAT）上的被动红外探测器（TANSO）官方反演的近地面975hPa左右的CO₂浓度L4B数据产品,采用ArcGIS地统计分析方法,对比瓦里关全球大气本底站地面观测数据进行真实性检验,分析中国区域近地面CO₂浓度分布的时空变化特征。结果表明：中国区域近地面CO₂浓度空间分布集中,东高西低,差异显著;CO₂浓度具有明显的季节变化特征,月平均浓度4月份（春季）升至最高,7月份（夏季）降至最低。结合“中国统计年鉴2012”中的2009年人口密度、能源消费总量（煤）和GDP等辅助数据对比发现：导致中国近地面CO₂浓度空间分布规律的原因多种多样,不可轻易定论是人为或自然使然,需进一步深入研究。     

利用伪归一化差异水体指数提取城镇周边细小河流信息

通过对归一化差异水体指数NDWI中的绿波段修正,提出了不依赖于中红外波段的伪归一化差异水体指数FNDWI（False NDWI）。使用NDWI和FNDWI分别在背景地物为城市、城郊、乡镇、村落和山区的遥感影像上进行河流水体提取,实验表明,FNDWI影像中城镇建筑用地与河流水体的可分离性较NDWI有所提升,提升率为116%~335%不等;相关性分析表明,河流宽度与可分离性提升率具有明显的负相关关系,相关系数为-0.82;分类结果显示,在城市和城郊区域,NDWI提取的水体中混杂有较多城镇建筑用地信息,而FNDWI提取的水体中基本未见混杂。总体上,FNDWI提高了2种地物的可分离性,剔除了NDWI影像混入的城镇建筑用地信息,较好地解决了NDWI城镇建筑用地与河流水体的混淆问题,尤其适用于城镇周边的细小河流。     

Runoff change of Naoli River in Northeast China in 1955–2009 and its influencing factors

Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009 for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%, respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period. The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%-27.8% to 83.9%-87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.     

体感温度客观分析方法研究

影响人体体感温度的气象要素主要包括温度、湿度、风以及太阳辐射,依据这些气象要素影响人体体感温度的原理,确定了平均气温与体感温度相同时的临界相对湿度、风速及太阳辐射值.以全国有水平面直接辐射曝辐量观测项目的77个气象台站的历年逐日4次定时观测资料为基础,把相邻两个白昼(夜间)的气温差作为因变量,相对湿度差、风速差、垂直辐射差(白昼)作为自变量,以旬为时问分辨率,建立了逐旬多元回归方程.各地所建立的逐句多元线性拟合方程拟合优度相当高,F统计量检验也充分证明线性回归方程总体成立,从气候意义、统计角度来看该方法都具有充分的可行性.     

水资源开发利用引起的环境负效应——以玛纳斯河流域为例

通过对玛纳斯河流域环境负效应研究,确定了水资源开发利用过程中引起环境负效应的制约因子,引入地下水动态均衡方法进行半定量分析,明确地下水量的变化为引起环境负效应的直接因素,为定量进行水资源综合开发与利用、防止环境负效应的产生提供方法和依据。     

基于深度学习的太阳F_10.7辐射通量的短期预报研究

F_10.7太阳辐射通量作为输入参数被广泛运用于大气经验模型、电离层模型等空间环境模型,其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.采用时间序列法统计了太阳辐射通量F10.7指数和太阳黑子数(SSN)的关系,给出了两者之间的线性关系,在此基础上提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(Long and Short Term Memory,LSTM)的预报方法,方法结合了54 d太阳辐射通量指数和SSN历史数据来对F_10.7进行未来7 d短期预报,并与其他预报方法的预报结果进行了比较,结果表明:(1)所建短期预报7 d方法模型的性能优于美国空间天气预报中心(Space Weather Prediction Center, SWPC)的方法,预测值和观测值的相关系数(CC)达到0.96,同时其均方根误差约为11.62个太阳辐射通量单位(sfu),预报结果的均方根误差(RMSE)低于SWPC,下降约11%;(2)对预测的23、24周太阳活动年结果统计表明,太阳活动高年的第7 d F10.7指数预报平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)最优可达12.9%以内,低年最优可达2...     

估算有中子星作伴星的黑洞质量

在本文中，我们讨论了由中子星和黑洞构成的密近双星系统的引力效应。首先，我们清楚地解释了引力辐射存在引起的轨道圆化，并估算了圆化的时间尺度。求解了围绕史瓦西黑洞作圆轨道运动的矢量进动方程，得到了一个精确解。由进动周期和中心黑洞的质量的关系，我们得到了估算中子星伴随的黑洞质量的方法。随后我们讨论了以中子星脉冲信号随自旋进动变化来寻找黑洞的方法。