Droughts and famines: The underlying factors and the causal links among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya

Famines are often linked to drought in semi-arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa where not only pastoralists, but also increasingly agro-pastoralists are affected. This study addresses the interplay between drought and famine in the rural semi-arid areas of Makueni district, Kenya, by examining whether, and how crop production conditions and agro-pastoral strategies predispose smallholder households to drought-triggered food insecurity. If this hypothesis holds, then approaches to deal with drought and famine have to target factors causing household food insecurity during non-drought periods. Data from a longitudinal survey of 127 households, interviews, workshops, and daily rainfall records (1961–2003) were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. This integrated approach confirms the above hypothesis and reveals that factors other than rainfall, like asset and labour constraints, inadequate policy enforcement, as well as the poverty-driven inability to adopt risk-averse production systems play a key role. When linking these factors to the high rainfall variability, farmer-relevant definitions and forecasts of drought have to be applied.     

Consulting as a threat to local democracy? Flexible management consultants,pacified citizens,and political tactics of strategic development in German cities

These days, it is often claimed that democratic procedures are under threat. The detachment of policy decisions from political debates is partly a result of the increasing influence of non-elected organizations and experts. Following a conceptual discussion of the spatiality of democracy, this paper focuses on management consultants as constraint on collective political participation in urban development; namely on McKinsey and Roland Berger. (De-)democratization is assessed alongside processes of inclusion and exclusion of both topics and people from political decisions. Based on a comparison of strategy-making projects in six German cities, the findings reveal three different types of urban policymaking ranging between expert-led and participatory versions. Despite the differences, each of the projects relied on a notion of passive citizens, who primarily need to be “gotten on board” and who lack the power to make decisions. This paper exposes the political tactics involved in an expert-influenced curtailment of democratic procedures.     

一种边缘特征增强的多源遥感影像融合方法研究

基于分频分策略的融合思想,提出了一种边缘特征增强的多源遥感影像融合方法。实验证明,融合后的影像不仅在很大程度上保留了多光谱影像的光谱特征,还提高了空间分辨率,特别是边缘特征得到进一步增强。     

青海湖盆地史前狩猎采集人群的石料利用策略研究

史前人类向青藏高原扩散的过程和适应高海拔缺氧环境的机制是多学科关注的热点科学问题.青海湖盆地是青藏高原旧石器-中石器时代遗址分布最为丰富的区域,对这些遗址出土的石制品原料的分析有助于深入理解青藏高原史前狩猎采集人群的石料开发策略、人群迁徙和交流联系.青海湖盆地151遗址出土的928件石制品的石料研究分析显示,处于末次冰消期的下文化层的石制品以近源的石英和石英岩为主要原料,而处于全新世早中期的上文化层在同类型近源石料仍占主体地位的情况下,开始出现较高比例和多样化的优质硅质石料,并且主要用于生产细石器.野外调查和查阅地质资料均未发现青海湖盆地内有151遗址中出现的同类型优质硅质石料产出,推测其来自远距离搬运.青海湖盆地内其他8个末次冰消期至全新世中期遗址的3269件石制品石料分析结果显示,与151遗址同类型的远源优质硅质石料在全新世早期开始在盆地内的遗址中出现.这一结果表明青海湖盆地末次冰消期古人类活动强度和范围有限,全新世早中期古人类受到全新世大暖期气候变好和周边地区农业人群兴起挤压活动空间的双重影响,在高原上的活动范围和强度大大增加,伴随着开始有意识地开发优质石料,较频繁地进行远距离迁移和人群交流.远源优质硅质石料的产地可能位于北祁连山区和青藏高原上的陆相火山岩区,需要未来更深入的研究揭示.该研究为深入理解青藏高原古人类的高海拔环境适应策略和移动模式提供了重要材料,为理解史前人类向高原扩散的机制提供了重要信息.     

Improving sustainability of urban drainage systems for climate change adaptation using best management practices: a case study of Tehran,Iran

Although the effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) in reducing urban flooding is widely recognized, the improved sustainability achieved by implementing BMPs in upstream suburban areas, reducing downstream urban floods, is still debated. This study introduces a new definition of urban drainage system (UDS) sustainability, focusing on BMP usage to enhance system performance after adaptation to climate change. Three types of hydraulic reliability index (HRI) plus robustness and improvability indices were used to quantify the potential enhanced sustainability of the system in a changing climate, together with a climate change adaptability index (CCAI). The sustainability of UDS for the safe conveyance of storm-water runoff was investigated under different land-use scenarios: No BMP, BMP in urban areas, and BMP inside and upstream of urban areas, considering climate change impacts. Rainfall–runoff simulation alongside drainage network modelling was conducted using a storm-water management model (US EPA SWMM) to determine the inundation areas for both base-line and future climatic conditions. A new method for disaggregating daily rainfall to hourly, proposed to provide a finer resolution of input rainfall to SWMM, was applied to a semi-urbanized catchment whose upstream runoff from mountainous areas may contribute to the storm-water runoff in downstream urban parts. Our findings confirm an increase in the number of inundation points and reduction in sustainability indices of UDS due to climate change. The results present an increase in UDS reliability from 4% to 16% and improvements in other sustainability indicators using BMPs in upstream suburban areas compared to implementing them in urban areas.     

4DSVD分析误差与样本选取方法和样本容量的关系初探

分析误差与样本选取方法和样本容量的关系是4DSVD同化方法一个亟需研究的重要问题。获得支撑大气模式空间和观测空间吸引子的基向量是4DSVD研究的关键部分,样本的好坏和样本容量的范围是决定4DSVD基向量和分析结果质量的一个重要前提条件。首先利用Lorenz28变量模式,用4DSVD方法做了一些简单三维同化试验,探讨了Lorenz28变量模式的分析误差与样本容量和样本选取方法的关系。数值试验结果表明,对一个具体的模式,有限的样本容量就能够获得较高精度的分析结果;在模式系统和观测系统不变情况下,用一定样本容量得到的支撑模式空间和观测空间的基向量具有很好的稳定性,即一旦获得一组较好的基向量,在观测系统和模式系统不变的情况下,对同化任何时刻的观测适用;分析结果对选取方法没有太大的依赖性,但具体的样本容量要视不同模式和样本选取方法而定。用WRF模式做的4DSVD四维观测系统模拟试验结果表明,若样本选取方法得当,所需要的样本容量要远远小于模式自由度。4DSVD要真正获得较高精度的分析结果,需要的条件是尽可能的在吸引子上取样并选取充足的样本容量;间隔取样可以一定程度上减少计算量。根据数值试验结果提出了4DSVD在实际同化时样本选取的一些初步的方法。     

天津滨海新区的生态环境特征及其对区域经济发展的影响

在天津滨海新区建设过程与发展中,面临着沉积软土地基不稳定、土壤盐碱化和重金属污染、滨海湿地植被退化、近海海水污染和渔业资源衰退等生态环境问题。这些生态环境问题对滨海新区基础设施建设及海洋产业的发展有显著影响,制约着滨海新区经济、特别是海洋经济的持续健康发展。作者提出了采用加筋垫层对沉积软土地基浅层进行处理、提高地基承载力和稳定性、治理土壤重金属污染与盐碱化、保护湿地、治理近海海水污染、保护与恢复近海渔业资源等改善天津滨海新区生态环境的对策。