川西高原中部一次极端暴雪成因分析

利用0.5°×0.5°的ECWMF再分析资料,常规气象资料以及西南区域数值预报模式模拟等资料,应用天气分析和诊断方法,对2016年2月21日川西高原中东部的极端暴雪天气过程进行系统分析。结果表明:500hPa贝加尔湖横槽旋转南下使得冷空气并入川西高原中部的低槽中,其与西南暖湿气流交汇产生的锋生以及西南急流存在是此次暴雪天气产生的重要原因;随着副高的北进,此次强降雪开始之前有来自于孟加拉湾和南海的两支水汽输送,西南低空急流稳定维持为此次暴雪提供了充足的水汽。MPV2在此次暴雪过程中起到了重要作用;强降雪主要发生在SVD(Slantwise Vorticity Development)强烈发展的时段内,暴雪落区与SVD发展最强烈的区域重合;西南区域数值预报模式提前6h对此次暴雪的形势场和物理量场都做出了较为准确的预报,其中垂直速度和水汽条件预报与实况最吻合,但降水预报的量级较实况偏弱一个量级,强降水落区比强度预报更准确。     

基于Endlich迭代调整的全球流函数和速度势计算及风场分解与重建

本文将有限区域求解流函数和速度势的Endlich迭代调整方法(E-T方法)推广至全球区域,并与常用Guass-Seidel迭代求解Poisson方程方法(G-P方法)进行了比较。结果表明:E-T方法适应于全球流函数和速度势的计算,其由内向外调整,不需严格考虑边界条件,可消除边界对计算结果的影响;E-T方法能准确分解和重建原始风场,而由于极地边界和差分格式影响,G-P方法求得的旋转风和辐散风之和不能准确重建原始风场,尤其是经向为固定边界时,两极地附近重建风场误差非常明显;E-T方法与G-P方法另一重要差异是前者利用流函数和速度势与风场偏微分关系直接进行迭代求解,不需计算涡度和散度,不但保证了重建风场的准确性,还防止了涡度和散度计算误差带来的二次污染。     

The Spatial and Temporal Variability of Global Stratospheric Gravity Waves and Their Activity during Sudden Stratospheric Warming Revealed by COSMIC Measurements

This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of global stratospheric gravity waves (GWs) and the characteristics of GW activity during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) using the GPS radio occultation measurements from the COSMIC mission during September 2006 to May 2013. Corresponding to the COSMIC RO observational window and analysis method, GW potential energy (Ep) with vertical scales no shorter than ～2 km is resolved. It is found that the distributions of GW Ep over 20-30 km and 30-38 km show similar spatial and seasonal variations. The variations of GW Ep with altitude and latitude along the westerly wind are identified in different seasons over 60°-80°W. In the middle and high latitudes, seasonal cycles are distinct in the time-latitude and time-altitude distributions of GW activities, which show larger Ep in winters when westerly wind dominates and smaller Ep in summers when easterly wind dominates. The influence of quasi-biennial oscillation on GW activity is recognized in the tropics. GW Ep enhances closely following the occurrence of minor SSW events; while during major events, GW Ep may not enhance, and sometimes may even weaken, in the regions where reversals of zonal wind occur, probably caused by the filtering impact of the 0 m s-1 wind level on the GWs.     

基于ECMWF产品福建省前汛期短时强降水预报方法

利用2014—2016年福建省1605个自动气象站逐时降水资料和ECMWF全球模式细网格预报产品,分析福建省前汛期短时强降水发生背景下模式预报物理量的分布特征,并基于阈值判定的方法建立短时强降水预报模型。结果表明:福建省内陆县市前汛期短时强降水发生频次较高,沿海县市发生频次低,且日变化特征表现出双峰结构。箱型图差异指数（I_bd）在评估相关变量对于区分短时强降水发生与否的敏感程度有较好的作用,比湿、整层可降水量等水汽变量I_bd最为显著,K指数、对流有效位能等变量的I_bd仅次于水汽变量,说明模式预报变量对于预测短时强降水有较好的表征作用。针对短时强降水事件的物理量集合,采用剔除异常值后的最小值作为判定阈值,通过训练集分析结果客观订正对流有效位能和3 h降水量两个高I_bd变量的阈值,建立潜势预报模型。对于福建省西部的关键区,检验集白天时段12 h时间分辨率预报TS评分可达0.5,夜间时段约为0.3。对于福建省进行分区建模预报,检验集预报结果显示白天时段比夜间准确率高、内陆县市比沿海县市准确率高。     

A Study on the Spatial Distribution of China’s Potential Foreign Cooperation on Grain from Geographical View

Further utilization of global agricultural resources and the expansion of potential international cooperation space are necessary measures to promote a new level of China’s national food security and optimize the structure of domestic food consumption. This study measured the global potential cultivated land area and national grain self-sufficiency. Based on the two-above measures, the authors made a classification of China’s foreign agricultural cooperation countries and depicted the spatial pattern of cooperation based on the grain trades of those countries with China. The grain exporters include Australia, North America, South America, Eastern Europe and Central Asia; and the target countries for “going abroad” of Chinese grain enterprises are mainly located in Sub-Saharan Africa and northern Latin America. This study proposes that China’s policy of cooperation on grain should be shifted to non-traditional partners alongside the “Belt and Road Initiative” region. Specifically, China could expand grain imports from Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and other East European and Central Asian countries, and the direction for China’s agricultural enterprises “going abroad” should shift to Sub-Sahara Africa.     

A Quantitative Method of Detecting Transient Rossby Wave Phase Speed: No Evidence of Slowing Down with Global Warming

Based on the Complex Empirical Orthogonal Functions(CEOFs) of bandpass-filtered daily streamfunction fields, a quantitative method of detecting transient(synoptic) Rossby wave phase speed(RWPhS) is presented. The transient RWPhS can be objectively calculated by the distance between a high(or low) center in the real part of a CEOF mode and its counterpart in the imaginary part of the same CEOF mode divided by the time span between two adjacent peaks(or bottoms) of two principal component curves f...     

On the local multiscale determination of the Earth’s disturbing potential from discrete deflections of the vertical

As a first approximation, the Earth is a sphere; as a second approximation, it may be considered an ellipsoid of revolution. The deviations of the actual Earth’s gravity field from the ellipsoidal “normal” field are so small that they can be understood to be linear. The splitting of the Earth’s gravity field into a “normal” and a remaining small “disturbing” field considerably simplifies the problem of its determination. Under the assumption of an ellipsoidal Earth model, high observational accuracy is achievable only if the deviation (deflection of the vertical) of the physical plumb line, to which measurements refer, from the ellipsoidal normal is not ignored. Hence, the determination of the disturbing potential from known deflections of the vertical is a central problem of physical geodesy. In this paper, we propose a new, well-promising method for modelling the disturbing potential locally from the deflections of the vertical. Essential tools are integral formulae on the sphere based on Green’s function with respect to the Beltrami operator. The determination of the disturbing potential from deflections of the vertical is formulated as a multiscale procedure involving scale-dependent regularized versions of the surface gradient of the Green function. The modelling process is based on a multiscale framework by use of locally supported surface curl-free vector wavelets.      

Natural hazards in the Bavarian Alps: a historical approach to risk assessment

The Bavarian Alps region is strongly affected by various natural hazards, mainly hydrological events (floods, debris flows), geomorphic/geological events (landslides, rock falls), and avalanches. Extraordinary floods, like in 2002 or in the summer of 2005 in south Bavaria, have again posed the question of the possible extent and frequency of recurrence of catastrophic events. To put risk assessment on a broader basis historical data about all kinds of past natural hazards were detected in the archives of local authorities and administrative offices for water management. More than 10,000 sources (written accounts, maps, and photographs) were collated in a database. The majority of this information reaches back to the middle of the 19th century. In addition, many documents referring to events dating back even as far as the middle age were found. The Historische Analyse von NaturGefahren (HANG, historical analysis of natural hazards) project at the University of Eichstaett mainly focuses on a small-scale examination of the data. Initial results of the data analysis show that most catastrophic events in the Bavarian Alps only affect parts of the area, but not the whole region. Therefore it is necessary to assess the risk potential on a local scale like valleys, the catchment areas of mountain streams, or even single streams. Firstly the presented data is aimed to help engineers in future planning of hazard-protection measures. Secondly the information can form a vital component to enhance our knowledge of hydrological and geomorphic/geological dynamics in the Alps.     

等熵位涡揭示的一次强寒潮过程中高层扰动特征

采用欧洲中心提供的ERA-Interim每日4次再分析资料,对2016年1月下旬的一次强寒潮事件进行等熵位涡分析。结果表明,此次强寒潮的爆发以动力对流层顶下降、高位涡下传为特征,位涡扰动的强度和时间曲线的转折点对寒潮的酝酿和爆发有指示意义。此次强寒潮过程的冷空气可追溯到欧亚北部的新地岛附近和亚洲东北部的对流层顶,两股具有高位涡的冷空气在贝加尔湖附近合并堆积,在转竖横槽的引导下向南爆发,形成强寒潮。伴随寒潮过程的酝酿和爆发,高位涡强冷空气向下、向南传播,并伴随急流向下伸展。高位涡柱对应强烈发展并下伸的正涡度柱,表明高位涡引起的垂直拉伸导致显著的旋转增强,对应涡后横槽的强烈加深。对流层顶呈现大振幅波动,来自高层的信号较低层出现得更早、更强,在动力对流层顶上的信号比500 hPa表现得更为清楚。     

Foreign Direct Investment,Ecological Withdrawals,and Natural-Resource-Dependent Economies

This article examines the relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI) and natural resource depletion and natural resource rents for a longitudinal (2005–2013: N?=?125 nations) sample of less developed countries (LDCs). Theoretically, we argue that FDI contributes to increased ecological withdrawals and dependence on the natural resource sector for economic growth within countries. We hypothesized that LDCs with higher levels of FDI would also have higher levels of natural resource depletion and income (i.e., rents). We assess whether this hypothesized relationship holds across nations in our sample for four different natural resource depletion and rents measures (energy, forest, mineral, and total natural resources). We find strong support for our hypotheses regarding natural resource depletion and resource rents, with the exception of energy rents. The outcome lends support to the ecological withdrawal and ecostructural theory of foreign investment dependence perspectives.