金融危机下国家大规模投资政策模拟

构建了一个中国多区域可计算一般均衡模型(MReCGE-C),利用该模型分析了我国应对国际金融危机的大规模投资政策。MReCGE-C根据城乡属性和年龄结构对居民进行了分组,放松了要素流动的限制,使劳动力和资本可以同时跨区域跨部门流动,并设计了一种基于居民终生效用的区域均衡机制,通过区域差距变量可以调控和测度区域差距。最后利用MReCGE-C模型针对国家大规模投资计划下的3种典型投资方案进行了模拟。结果发现在等量新增投资下,针对中部地区投资方案的GDP增长率高于针对中西部和全国投资方案的GDP增长率,同时针对中部地区投资方案对于城乡就业的拉动也要优于其余两种投资方案,而且可以实现缩小区域差距的目标。综合比较,目前国家大规模投资的优势应该指向中部地区。     

Transnational linkages and the spillover of environment-efficiency into developing countries

Arguments about the “positive” influence of growing transnational linkages have typically focused on their role in diffusing environmentally superior innovations which help to raise countries’ environment-efficiency. The present article empirically tests these claims by examining whether developing countries’ linkages with more CO₂- and SO₂-efficient economies contribute to domestic improvements in CO₂- and SO₂-efficiency. Our large-N, statistical findings caution against some of the efficiency-oriented optimism voiced by supporters of globalization. Although imports ties with more pollution-efficient countries are found to spillover into improved domestic CO₂- and SO₂-efficiency, neither transnational linkages via exports, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) nor telephone calls appear to have any influence on domestic pollution-efficiency.     

Shaping climate policy in the housing sector in northern Chinese cities

What are relevant urban development investment strategies for improving building energy efficiency (BEE) and decarbonizing the urban district heating supply in rapidly urbanizing China? Different trajectories of BEE and energy supply technologies are compared in the urban context in a northern Chinese city. Vigorous improvement of BEE will significantly enhance the prospective financial capacity to facilitate deployment of backstop technologies (e.g. carbon capture and storage) in order to decarbonize the energy supply and achieve the long-term targets of low-carbon buildings. Carbon finance instruments should be used to facilitate public policy to accompany the necessary transition in the urban development process. The government-run efficiency procurement scheme will overcome the problem of insufficient incentive and high transaction costs associated with individual Clean Development Mechanism projects. Appropriate investment strategies (allocation of financial resources over the time frame) will allow local governments to harness the large potentials of carbon emissions mitigation while minimizing the risk of long-term technical lock-in in the built environment in Chinese cities.     

Funding low-carbon investments in the absence of a carbon tax

Introducing a carbon tax is difficult, partly because it suggests that current generations have to make sacrifices for the benefit of future generations. However, the climate change externality could be corrected without such a sacrifice. It is possible to set a carbon value, and use it to create ‘carbon certificates’ that can be accepted as part of commercial banks’ legal reserves. These certificates can be distributed to low-carbon projects, and be exchanged by investors against concessional loans, reducing capital costs for low-carbon projects. As the issuance of carbon certificates would increase the quantity of money, it will either lead to accelerated inflation or induce the Central Bank to raise interest rates. Low-carbon projects will thus have access to cheaper loans at the expense of either ‘regular’ investors (in case of higher interest rates) or of lenders and depositors (in case of accelerated inflation). Within this scheme, mitigation expenditures are compensated by a reduction in regular investments, so that immediate consumption is maintained. It uses future generation wealth to pay for a hedge against climate change. This framework is not as efficient as a carbon tax but is politically easier to implement and represents an interesting step in the trajectory towards a low-carbon economy.     

Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market

How does financial performance risk affect investments in low-carbon electricity-generating technologies to achieve climate policy targets? A detailed risk simulation of price formation in the Great Britain wholesale power market is used to show that the increasing replacement of fossil facilities with wind, ceteris paribus, may cause a deterioration of the financial risk–return performance metrics for incremental investments. Low-carbon investments appear to be high risk, low return, and as such may require a progressively higher level of support over time than envisaged by the conventional degression trajectories. The increasing riskiness of the wholesale market will to some extent offset the benefits of lower capital costs and operational efficiencies if investors need to satisfy cautious debt coverage ratios alongside positive expected returns. This increased risk is additional to the well-known ‘merit order effect’ of low-carbon investments progressively depressing wholesale prices and hence their expected investment returns.

Policy relevance

Policy support for renewable technologies such as wind is usually based upon levelized costs and is expected to reduce over time as capital costs and operational efficiencies improve. However, levelized costs do not take full account of the risk aversion that investors may have in practice. Expected policy support reductions may be moderated to some extent by the increased financial performance risk that intermittent technologies bring to the power market. The annual risk-return profiles for incremental investments deteriorate for all technologies as wind replaces fossil fuels. This extra risk premium will need to be incorporated into evaluating policy incentives for new investments in a decarbonizing power market.     

Encouraging clean energy investment in developing countries: what role for aid?

A large portion of foreign assistance for climate change mitigation in developing countries is directed to clean energy facilities. To support international mitigation goals, however, donors must make investments that have effects beyond individual facilities. They must reduce barriers to private-sector investment by generating information for developers, improving relevant infrastructure, or changing policies. We examine whether donor agencies target financing for commercial-scale wind and solar facilities to countries where private investment in clean energy is limited and whether donor investments lead to more private investments. On average, we find no positive evidence for these patterns of targeting and impact. Coupled with model results that show feed-in tariffs increase private investment, we argue that donor agencies should reallocate resources to improve policies that promote private investment in developing countries, rather than finance individual clean energy facilities.

Policy relevance

We suggest that international negotiations could usefully shift the focus of climate change finance towards adaptation in exchange for mitigation-improving policy reforms in developing countries. There is little evidence that mitigation-related financing is having broader effects on energy production, so new financial arrangements should be the focus of future negotiations. Additionally, international donors should focus efforts on reforming policies to attract private investment.     

Commitments through financial options: an alternative for delivering climate change obligations

Governments willing to commit themselves to maintain carbon prices at or above a certain level face the challenge that their commitments need to be credible both for investors in low-carbon technology and for foreign governments. This article argues that governments can make such commitments by issuing long-term put option contracts on the price of CO₂ allowances. This mechanism gives investors the right, but not the obligation, to sell allowances to the government at the strike price. From the investors' point of view, a government is therefore fully committed to a price floor for allowances in the future. This proposed approach alters the incentives that a government faces when considering noncompliance and serves to prevent non-compliance. The proposal fares well when assessed against criteria to determine its suitability in legitimacy, enforcement, proportionality, lack of interference from other contracting States, and transparency. It also allows for fine-tuning through the number and duration of issued options and the strike price. A robust contract structure is proposed to protect against government interference that might threaten the credibility of commitments.     

Land acquisition: a means to mitigate water scarcity and reduce conflict?

ABSTRACT

In recent years there has been a surge in land investments, primarily in the African continent, but also in Asia and Latin America. This increase in land investment was driven by the food pricing crisis of 2007–2008. Land investors can be identified from a variety of sectors, with actors ranging from hedge funds to national companies. Many water-scarce countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are among these financiers, and primarily invest in Africa. Recognizing the potential for “outsourcing” their food security (and thereby also partly their water security), Middle Eastern countries such as Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have invested in land for food production in Africa. The extent to which this is happening is still unclear, as many contracts are not yet official and the extent of the leases is vague. This paper investigates the land investments and acquisitions by Middle Eastern countries. It also seeks to analyse what effect, if any, these investments can have on the potential for conflict reduction and subsequent peacebuilding in the Middle East region as the activity removes pressure from transboundary water resources.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR K. Aggestam     

Structural vibration passive control and economic analysis of a high-rise building in Beijing

Performance analysis of the Pangu Plaza under earthquake and wind loads is described in this paper.The plaza is a 39-story steel high-rise building,191 m high,located in Beijing close to the 2008 Olympic main stadium.It has both fluid viscous dampers(FVDs) and buckling restrained braces or unbonded brace(BRB or UBB) installed.A repeated iteration procedure in its design and analysis was adopted for optimization.Results from the seismic response analysis in the horizontal and vertical directions show that th...     

“This is a Montreal Issue”: Negotiating responsibility in global production and investment networks

While geographers have increasingly focused on how global commodity and production networks create new ‘geographies of responsibility’ there has been little empirical work considering how responsibility is worked into management systems and social activism in such networks. Drawing on literature from global production networks, geographies of responsibility and other literatures, this paper explores the dynamic and contested ways in which concepts of responsibility can play a role in network regulation. Both foreign direct investment and commodity networks (here referred to as ‘global production and investment networks’) are subject to complex negotiations and compromises involving corporate social responsibility and sustainability initiatives as well as shareholder activist, human rights, labor, and environmental activism. This is illustrated by reference to conflicts in Canada over Alcan, Inc.’s investments from 1993 to 2007 in the Utkal Alumina Project in Orissa, India. The project involved significant socio-environmental conflict. In Canada, Alcan’s investment was met by civil society campaigns that tested the company’s commitments to sustainability and corporate social responsibility. The case study suggests revising theories of geographies of responsibility. While foreign direct investment can create new relationships between distant others, these are fluid and contingent and not necessarily desirable. Rather than see networks as a source of responsibility we should work to ensure that the relationships that networks foster be structured to ensure our deeper values are respected.