Geomagnetic calm intervals and anomalous solar cycle 20

Long period variations in the occurrence of prolonged intervals of calm magnetic field conditions are studied using index Ap of magnetic activity. The solar-cycle variation in occurrence is compared with the sunspot number. Anomalous behaviour for solar cycle 20, observed in other solar parameters, are shown to be manifested in the occurrence frequency of quiet intervals. Spectral characteristics of occurrence indicates a dominant long period variation of about 30 years and a more feeble 11-year oscillation     

不同时间间隔下的遥感时间序列重构模型比较分析

遥感时间序列被广泛用于地表信息探测。然而受传感器和外部条件的影响,时间序列存在不同程度的噪声。时间序列重构模型能够实现时间序列去噪,但不同重构模型应用于不同时间间隔时间序列的精度不同。本文以辽宁省朝阳市为研究区,分别利用1、4、8、16和30 d间隔归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetable Index, NDVI）时间序列,进行模拟数据实验和物候监测实验,从波形还原能力和物候期提取精度2方面,评价了SG滤波、DL拟合、HANTS 3种模型在不同时间间隔下的重构效果。结果表明,SG滤波模型适用于较大时间间隔的时间序列数据,DL拟合模型适用于较小时间间隔的时间序列数据,HANTS模型对较小间隔的时间序列重构精度较低。在此基础上,从模型自身的角度分析了3者在不同时间间隔下表现的原因,并为面向不同时间间隔时间序列数据的重构模型选择提供了参考。     

天景山断裂带晚第四纪水平活动强度的分时,分段研究

在野外实测工作基础上，统计归纳了天景山断裂带上的冲沟左旋错动资料，分析了各类冲沟形成年代，对断裂带晚第四纪以来的水平活动强度分布，分段进行了研究，结果表明，断裂带晚更新以来的总体活动强度不大，但从时间和空间分析，各段活动的差异比较明显，平均滑动速率为０．２３～１．６２ｍｍ／ａ。晚更新世早，中期，活动中心位于断裂带西段，平均速率为１．４０ｍｍ／ａ，晚更新世晚期以来，活动中心东移到中段，平均速率为１．     

1981—2016年山东陆地观测最大风速变化特征

基于山东1981—2016年121个气象站的年最大风速观测数据,应用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检验等方法研究了山东年最大风速的空间分布特征、时间演变规律及突变特征、重现期特征。结果表明：山东年平均最大风速呈逐年波动减小变化趋势,气候倾向率为-1.41 m·s-1·（10 a）-1,减小趋势极显著;沿海地区和鲁中山区最大风速较大,鲁南和鲁西南较小;2000年以来,最大风速相对20世纪80、90年代明显减小;莱州湾、山东半岛东南沿海减小趋势最明显,鲁东南等地减小趋势较小;山东最大风速在2002年前后发生突变,突变后明显减小,不同区域最大风速突变发生年份不同;50 a和100 a最大风速重现期结果与观测的最大风速空间分布类似。     

青岛地区气候变化对动物物候变化的影响研究

基于青岛地区气候和动物物候观测资料,分析了气候和动物物候变化特征及两者之间的相关关系。1986—2016年青岛地区蚱蝉始鸣期表现为小幅波动变化,蟋蟀的始鸣期则呈先显著推迟后显著提前的变化趋势,青蛙和家燕的始鸣期均有显著推迟的趋势。以上4种动物的绝鸣期均显著提前,间隔期均明显缩短。受全球气候变暖的影响,青岛地区气温表现为显著增温趋势,日照时数和平均风速均呈显著减小趋势,而降水对气候变暖的响应较小。日照时数的减少对4种动物物候期的影响最大,有利于4种动物绝鸣期的提前和间隔期的缩短以及家燕始鸣期的推迟;蟋蟀和青蛙的物候期对气温有明显的响应,蚱蝉和家燕对气温的变化不敏感;风速的减小有利于蚱蝉、家燕绝鸣期的提前和间隔期的缩短,但却导致青蛙绝鸣期的推迟和间隔期的延长。多种气候因子共同作用决定了动物物候期的变化。除气候条件对动物物候期变化的影响之外,动物之间食物链的制约关系在一定程度上也对物候变化有影响。     

南海北部海域油气资源调查技术及其应用研究——拖缆及海底地震仪联合勘探观测系统研究

拖缆与海底地震仪联合勘探技术在野外地震调查中起着举足轻重的作用,特别是对油气资源的地震调查方法的研究。其中对海底地震仪(OBS)的研究能够给深水油气调查提供有力的保障,OBS在海底的布设是联合采集的关键,对OBS观测系统的研究显得尤为重要,关系到OBS采集的野外资料的总体质量和后期解释。因此,通过研究,可以选择设计最佳的观测系统,为联合勘探技术提供基础数据,降低采集费用、提高作业效率。     

Bootstrapped models for intrinsic random functions

Use of intrinsic random function stochastic models as a basis for estimation in geostatistical work requires the identification of the generalized covariance function of the underlying process. The fact that this function has to be estimated from data introduces an additional source of error into predictions based on the model. This paper develops the sample reuse procedure called the bootstrap in the context of intrinsic random functions to obtain realistic estimates of these errors. Simulation results support the conclusion that bootstrap distributions of functionals of the process, as well as their kriging variance, provide a reasonable picture of variability introduced by imperfect estimation of the generalized covariance function.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Comparing some approximate methods for building local confidence intervals for predicting regionalized variables

Approximate local confidence intervals can be produced by nonlinear methods designed to estimate indicator variables. The most precise of these methods, the conditional expectation, can only be used in practice in the multi-Gaussian context. Theoretically, less efficient methods have to be used in more general cases. The methods considered here are indicator kriging, probability kriging (indicator-rank co-kriging), and disjunctive kriging (indicator co-kriging). The properties of these estimators are studied in this paper in the multi-Gaussian context, for this allows a more detailed study than under more general models. Conditional distribution approximation is first studied. Exact results are given for mean squared errors and conditional bias. Then conditional quantile estimators are compared empirically. Finally, confidence intervals are compared from the points of view of bias and precision.     

SEISMOTECTONIC BACKGROUND AND RECURRENCE INTERVAL OF GREAT EARTHQUAKES IN 1679 SANHE- PINGGU M = 8 EARTHQUAKE AREA

Basined on comprehensive prospecting and investigation, the authors have ascertained that the 1679 San-he-Pinggu M = 8 earthquake occurred in the intersection region of active faults having deep-seated structural background. The NE-trending New Xiadian Fault, which was characterized by dextrall tensile-shear dislocation, was the seismogenic fault of the 1679 M = 8 earthquake. It is suggested that the macroscopic epicenter of the earthquake should be located in Pangezhuang area, where the vertical displacement of seismic faul' was up to 3.16m. According to the average seismic slip rate in this area, and the displacement value of earthequake with a certain magnitude, the recurrence interval of M = 7.5, M=7.0 and M = 8.5 earthquakes in the magistoseismic area of 1679 M = 8 earthquake on Xiadian Fault Zone have been estimated to be 3800,1750, and 800 years (the lower limit), respectively     

基于累积动应力水平的间歇加载下超孔压预测

设计一系列不同动应力幅值、间歇时长、振动时长的波形,对杭州地铁沿线淤泥质软黏土进行不排水单向循环加载试验,精确观测孔压累积过程。引入累积偏应力水平描述应力状态,分析对比各试验方案下归一化孔压随其变化的发展规律;分析动应力比、间歇时长、振动次数对超孔压累积的影响,发现动应力水平和振次的影响最为关键;从孔压增长机制的角度分析了间歇对于超孔压累积的影响;利用双曲函数拟合关系曲线,建立预测模型;通过分步拟合各振次关系曲线函数,发现振次不同时该模型的常数取值略有不同,分析常数随振动次数变化的规律,提出常数获取方法;最后利用该模型和既有模型预测新试样的超孔压发展,发现该模型表现良好。