Potentials and limitations of modelling vertical distributions of root water uptake of an Austrian pine forest on a sandy soil

Root water uptake patterns are often studied with simulation models of the unsaturated soil water flow, as they are difficult to measure directly. Calibration of these models is not straightforward and causes uncertainties in simulated uptake distributions. In this paper we study how uncertainties in the calibration of the SWIF model affect uncertainty intervals in simulated uptake patterns of an Austrian pine stand (Pinus nigra var. nigra) on a sandy soil. After calibrating and validating SWIF with a large data set of more than 125 000 measured soil water contents over a three year period, uncertainty ranges in simulated soil water dynamics and root water uptake distributions were estimated with a Monte Carlo analysis. In general, uncertainties in root uptake patterns were small (typically <2 10⁻⁴ m³ m⁻³ day⁻¹) and were higher for trees with a shallow rooting system (0·8 m) than for trees with a deep rooting system (2·5 m). Uncertainties arose mainly from uncertainties in simulated soil water fluxes and from variations in the reduction of uptake during periods of drought. Uncertainties in soil water contents were far higher (typically 0·01 m³ m⁻³) than uncertainties in uptake, illustrating that uncertainties in uptake parameters and those in the distribution of water uptake hardly affect the modelling of soil water dynamics. Root water uptake models should therefore be validated against measured uptake distributions, which can be determined on sandy soils during dry periods with a high water use when soil fluxes are negligible to uptake. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

分区封闭考勤算法研究

文章简述了员工工时填报对铁路勘察设计企业的现实意义,介绍了铁路勘察设计行业工时管理现状和存在的主要问题,针对虚空不实填报这一关键问题提出了指纹分区封闭考勤解决方案及相应算法,对项目工时网上填报实施必要控制,并在勘察设计企业的项目工时软件系统中成功应用。     

完全规格化缔合勒让德函数常用递推算法的适用性

完全规格化缔合勒让德函数递推算法的适用性是衡量算法优劣的重要标志。从第一相对数值精度、第二相对数值精度和计算速度等方面对4种常用的递推算法--标准向前列递推算法、标准向前行递推算法、跨阶次递推算法和Belikov递推算法的适用性进行分析。结果表明,标准向前行递推算法适用范围最小;对于cosθ∈[－1,1],在1 900阶内,标准向前列递推算法、跨阶次递推算法和Belikov递推算法均适用,且第1种算法速度最快;在3 000阶内,跨阶次递推算法和Belikov递推算法适用,且后者更优。     

鄂尔多斯盆地富县地区三叠系延长组长8—长6油层组类眼状构造成因探讨

鄂尔多斯盆地富县地区的三叠系延长组长8—长6油层组的岩石中发育类眼状构造。研究表明,类眼状构造由外部圈层和核心砂质团块组成,根据其形态特征和运动学特征,可分为侧向挤压、鞘褶皱横截面和垂向液化升降3种成因类型。结合古构造及古地理背景,对类眼状构造及相关软沉积变形构造的触发机制进行判别,由于长8—长6沉积时期湖盆处于扩张—收缩转换期,受同期秦岭造山带活动影响,构造运动活跃,地震频发,故认为地震及地震—涌浪作用最有可能形成类眼状构造及相关软沉积变形构造。鉴于类眼状构造存在于与深水块状砂岩相伴生的块状砂岩中,近年来被重新解释为砂质碎屑流的产物,进一步研究两者之间成因及沉积展布关系,对于研究区深水岩性油气藏勘探具有重要意义。     

Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences

Abstract

This article paves a way for assessing flood risk by the use of two-parameter distributions, for the intervals between threshold exceedences rather than by the traditional exponential distribution. In a case study, the apparent properties of intervals between exceedences of runoff events differ from those anticipated for exponentially distributed series. A procedure is proposed to relate two statistical parameters of the intervals to threshold discharges. It considers partial duration series (PDS) with thresholds equal to all high enough observed discharges. To avoid unnecessary assumptions on the behaviour of those parameters and effects of dependence between parameters for different PDS, a non-parametric trend-free pre-whitened scheme is applied. It leads to power-law relationships between a discharge and the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between its exceedences. Predicted mean inter-exceedence intervals, for the highest observed discharges at the stations, are closer to the observational periods than those predicted by GEV distributions fitted to AMS, and by GP distributions to fitted PDS. In the present case, the latter predictions are longer than the observational periods whereas some of the predicted mean inter-exceedences are shorter than the corresponding observational periods and some others are longer.

Citation Ben-Zvi, A. & Azmon, B. (2010) Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences. Hydrol. Sci J. 55(4), 565–577.     

西秦岭北缘断裂带特征地震平均复发间隔的确定和地震危险性评价

时间相依的地震危险性概率评估方法是最近10a来逐渐发展起来的，是一种将已获得的定量地质资料运用于活动断裂中—长期地震潜势概率评估的方法，从而使得在缺乏历史记载或仪器记录资料，但已获得断层平均滑动速率、同震位错、古地震年代序列等资料的活动断裂段上评估未来的发震概率成为可能。在定量计算活动断裂未来地震危险性的过程中，作为输入参数之一的特征地震平均复发间隔是一个至关重要的参数，它的确定将直接影响到概率计算的结果。对研究断裂上已获得的历史地震资料(H)、地质资料(G)和古地震资料(P)，笔采用了时间可预报(T)和准周期(Q)两种模式分别计算其平均复发间隔，比单一的只假定一种复发模式计算更具有完善性和可靠性。在叙述该方法的同时，以西秦岭北缘断裂为例，详细阐述了该断裂上特征地震平均复发间隔的确定，并在此基础上对西秦岭北缘断裂未来地震潜势作了定量评估。     

Estimation of regionalized phenomena by geostatistical methods: lake acidity on the Canadian Shield

 This paper describes a geostatistical technique based on conditional simulations to assess confidence intervals of local estimates of lake pH values on the Canadian Shield. This geostatistical approach has been developed to deal with the estimation of phenomena with a spatial autocorrelation structure among observations. It uses the autocorrelation structure to derive minimum-variance unbiased estimates for points that have not been measured, or to estimate average values for new surfaces. A survey for lake water chemistry has been conducted by the Ministère de l'Environnement du Québec between 1986 and 1990, to assess surface water quality and delineate the areas affected by acid precipitation on the southern Canadian Shield in Québec. The spatial structure of lake pH was modeled using two nested spherical variogram models, with ranges of 20 km and 250 km, accounting respectively for 20% and 55% of the spatial variation, plus a random component accounting for 25%. The pH data have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations that produce plausible realizations of a given random function model, while 'honoring' the experimental values (i.e., the real data points are among the simulated data), and that correspond to the same underlying variogram model. Post-processing of a large number of these simulations, that are equally likely to occur, enables the estimation of mean pH values, the proportion of affected lakes (lakes with pH≤5.5), and the potential error of these parameters within small regions (100 km×100 km). The method provides a procedure to establish whether acid rain control programs will succeed in reducing acidity in surface waters, allowing one to consider small areas with particular physiographic features rather than large drainage basins with several sources of heterogeneity. This judgment on the reduction of surface water acidity will be possible only if the amount of uncertainty in the estimation of mean pH is properly quantified. Received: 3 March 1997 · Accepted: 16 November 1998     

Study of hydrological phenomena by extreme value theory

We describe and give hydrological applications of a probabilistic model based on extreme value theory which can be used to study the values of a hydrologic process that exceed a certain threshold level Q _B .This model is useful in estimating extreme events X _T of return period T based on N years of available hydrologic record. We also present easy-to-use tables which give confidence intervals for X _T .The hydrologic applications reported are a flood frequency analysis, a methodology for estimating flood damage, an estimation of precipitation probabilities, and a prediction of extreme tide levels.     

隐蔽油气藏研究的难点和前沿

隐蔽油气藏已成为中国油气勘探的主要领域之一。随着勘探程度的提高,隐蔽油气藏勘探向复杂条件拓展,深层隐蔽油气藏发育与保存、不整合面结构与隐蔽油气藏分布、调整改造型隐蔽油气藏形成和保存机理成为隐蔽油气藏勘探和成藏机理研究的难点和前沿。深部存在活跃源岩和具有较高孔隙度和渗透率的储层是深层隐蔽油气藏成藏的基础。超压环境生烃作用动力学的研究进展提高了预测深层源岩生烃潜力的能力,已知的深层高孔隙度储层保存机理可成为预测深部储层孔渗条件的基础。不整合面结构特别是古土壤层的厚度及封闭能力、古土壤层之下半风化岩层的厚度及渗透率是研究与不整合面有关的隐蔽油气藏的关键。由于多期构造叠加、多期生烃和多期成藏,叠合盆地很多隐蔽油气藏经历了不同程度的调整改造,形成有成因联系的一系列调整改造型隐蔽油气藏,研究晚期构造与早期构造的叠加方式是预测调整改造型隐蔽油气藏的基础。准噶尔盆地中部,隐蔽油气藏同时具有埋藏深、不整合面结构复杂、多期成藏多期调整改造的特点,是建立复杂隐蔽油气藏成藏与勘探理论的天然实验室。     

Confidence Intervals of Quantiles in Hydrology Computed by an Analytical Method

Fitting probability distributions to hydrologic data samples is widely used for quantile estimation purposes. The estimated quantile (X^_T) is related to a return period (T). The confidence interval associated with each of the estimates has been calculated empirically, up until now, supposing that the quantile estimator is normally distributed. In this study, it is shown that the confidence interval follows a normal distribution only in the central part of the distribution. The real confidence limits are computed analytically, by defining and integrating the probability density function of the confidence interval. The results with an important number of hydrologic samples show that the upper confidence limits are significantly underestimated towards the tail of the distribution, when determined using the normality approximation for the quantile estimator.