Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

等双轴拉应变对无纺土工织物孔径变化的影响

无纺土工织物作为一种反滤材料,在工程中常受土体作用产生平面双轴拉应变,导致织物孔径变化。基于无纺织物空间网络孔径模型,改进Rawal公式中织物孔径结构总层数的算法,并提出等双轴拉伸下织物孔径分布曲线的解析解。利用自主研发的双轴拉伸仪,将两种针刺无纺织物等双轴拉伸至应变为3%、5%、10%,采用应变控制下的干筛法,进行织物孔径分布曲线测试。将解析解与试验结果进行对比分析,解析解孔径值偏大,所得解析曲线与测试曲线对于较薄织物吻合更好。研究结果表明,随着双轴拉应变的增加,无纺织物孔径增大,其特征孔径O95、O50、O30都近似与拉伸应变呈线性变化关系。     

Mean bulk densities of samples of dry atmospheric aerosol particles: A summary of measured data

Mean bulk densities of various samples of dry atmospheric aerosol particles sampled at different sites and during different seasons and weather situations range between 1.8 and more than 3 gm cm³.     

A spectrum of the acoustic-gravity waves associated with Auroral electro-jet

This model concerns the analysis of Aurora initiated travelling pressure waves in an isothermal atmosphere. Electro-dynamic Lorentz Force associated with auroral electric current density during the periods of geomagnetic activity is invoked as a possible exciting source.The dispersion phenomena in auroral induced acoustic gravity modes in the earth's atmosphere are examined and various cut-off frequencies analysed.Finally, an attempt is made to obtain a far field representation of the forced oscillations by means of Green's Function technique. Therefrom, the spectral amplitudes of the ground-level oscillations are computed. Incorporating various scaling factors, it is deduced that these amplitude components are in reasonable agreement with the results of recent measurements.     

唐山7.8级地震前的震中迁移与远台前兆的关系

以震中迁移始发点的前兆讨论了唐山7.8级地震震中位置的预测,并以此为例分析了汶川8级地震和芦山7级地震的前兆问题。另外,从震中迁移延长线上的前兆来讨论了唐山大震的发生时间。     

某些测震学指标与地震相关性研究

通过对１０项测震学指示宾１０ａ的大范围时空扫描得出的有震和无震“预报”进行了与５．０级以上的地震的相关性研究,结果证明这１０项指标当显性水平较低时,均可通过统计检验,表明是有效的提取异常指标。作还依统计检验结果对１０项测震学指标与地震相关性好坏进行了排序,并通过分析得到各指标今后优化方向．     

北京通州某改造区土壤中DDTs和HCHs的地球化学特征及风险评价

选取北京通州环球影城附近某改造区为研究区域,共采集15件表层土壤样品,主要分析了该地区土壤中DDTs和HCHs的空间分布地球化学特征;采集垂向样品,并分析了DDTs和HCHs在土壤垂向剖面中的分布情况。表层土壤样品中大部分的DDTs和HCHs有检出,ΣDDTs的残留量为494~19615 μg·kg-1,ΣHCHs为082~1021 μg·kg-1。土壤垂向剖面分析结果表明,DDTs部分有检出,两剖面中残留量整体随深度变化不明显,但局部出现突变现象;HCHs全部检出,两剖面中残留量整体随着深度增加不断减少。参照国家相关标准对该区土壤环境整体进行评价,初步分析通州区环球影城地区土壤中残留DDTs除个别点符合二级标准外,其余都处于一级标准,残留风险较低;土壤中残留HCHs基本符合一级标准。结合不同异构体之间含量特征及分布,认为该地区局部近期可能存在HCHs输入现象。最后,对该改造区进行了健康风险评价,结果表明该区DDTs和HCHs在致癌风险和部分非致癌风险方面影响较小。     

高温高压下成矿元素运移聚集模拟实验

通过不同温度和压力下岩块受力变形的模拟实验,证实了岩块受力变形导致成矿元素的迁移和富集,发现了高温高压下不同元素在同一温压条件下和同一元素在不同温压条件下具有不同的迁移和富集规律。实验表明,构造应力对许多内生金属矿产的形成、矿产中成矿元素的分带现象等都具有十分重要的作用。      

张河湾水库地区断层的ESR年龄测定

本文叙述了电子自旋共振(简称ESR)法所测定的河北省张河湾水库F₁、F₇断层的年龄,将ESR年龄和以往测试的TL年龄进行对比,两种方法测试结果基本吻合,证明ESR测定第四纪断层的可能性,F₁、F₇断层的年龄值均大于定义的活动断层年龄值下限(1.1×104a)。因此,它们不属活动断层,这个结论也被其它地质观测手段所证实。      

复杂条件下非开挖铺管的关键技术

地层和地下管网条件复杂是影响非开挖导向钻进质量的重要因素。本文结合工程实践,分析了精确的控向钻进技术、LG植物胶的选择和配制、管材选择、铺管阻力的计算和拉管头设计等影响复杂条件下,非开挖铺管的关键技术。实际应用中取得了好的效果。