The Factors that Drive Forestry Export Ties: A Network Perspective

Abstract

Forestry exports are considered one of the major drivers of forest loss worldwide, especially for developing nations. Building on these insights, this article considers the factors that explain forestry flows using a network perspective. Using network data from measuring forestry export flows between all nations from 1997 to 2012, this article offers an explanation for what factors contribute to the network ties of exporting nations in the global forestry network. Fixed effects negative binomial regression analysis for a panel of 94 low- and middle-income nations shows that economic and neo-institutional factors are the strongest predictors of forestry export network ties. The findings have important theoretical and methodological implications. Future research may aim to incorporate more explicit ideas of social connectedness to their cross-national analyses by integrating a network perspective.     

欧洲七国入境中国旅游与进出口贸易的关系——1985—2009年的协整分析和Granger因果关系检验

选取1985-2009年欧洲七国入境中国客流量与进出口贸易统计数据,运用协整分析和Granger因果检验方法,构建各国入境中国客流量与进口贸易、出口贸易的协整方程和修正模型,分别对欧洲七国入境中国客流量与进出口贸易额之间的关系进行分析和研究。结果表明：欧洲七国入境中国客流量与其对中国进出口贸易额存在长期均衡关系,各国入境客流量对进口和出口贸易额的长期弹性远大于短期弹性;Granger因果关系检验显示,欧洲七国入境中国客流量与进口贸易额存在显著的单向因果关系,英国、德国和瑞典入境中国客流量与出口贸易额的单向因果关系显著,瑞士进口贸易额、意大利出口贸易额与其入境中国客流量的单向因果关系显著,其差异性与各国入境中国客流量的大小、贸易依存度、贸易顺逆差情况和双边关系的对称性差异密切相关。     

Carbon tariffs for financing clean development

In order to address carbon leakage and preserve the competitiveness of domestic industries, some industrialized Annex I countries have proposed to implement carbon tariffs. These tariffs would be levied on energy-intensive imports from developing non-Annex I countries that have not agreed to binding emissions reductions. This action could have detrimental welfare impacts, especially on those developing countries, and may not lead to significant reductions in leakage. A recent proposal is to use the revenues generated from carbon tariffs to finance clean development in the relevant exporting non-Annex I countries. This proposal is evaluated using an energy-economic model of the global economy. The model is supplemented by marginal abatement cost curves and bottom-up information on abatement potentials in order to represent how clean development financing affects emissions reductions. The results indicate that carbon tariffs could raise US$3.5–24.5 billion (with a central value of $9.8 billion) for clean development financing. This could reduce the emissions of non-Annex I countries by 5–15% and still leave funds available for other purposes, such as adaptation. Furthermore, recycling the revenues generated from carbon tariffs back to the exporting country itself could alleviate some of the negative welfare impacts associated with them. However, a net negative impact especially on the welfare and gross domestic product of developing countries would remain.     

What role for climate negotiations on technology transfer?

Little progress has been made in climate negotiations on technology since 1992. Yet the diffusion of climate change mitigation technologies to developing countries (non-Annex I) has increased dramatically over the last twenty years. The shift has mostly concerned emerging economies, which are now reasonably well connected to international technology flows. This is good news, as the bulk of emissions increases are expected to take place in these countries in the near future. In contrast, the least developed countries still appear to be excluded from international technology flows, mostly because of their negligible participation in the recent economic globalization. This article focuses on the policy implications of the contribution of climate negotiations to international technology diffusion.

Policy relevance

The discrepancy between the small amount of progress made in climate negotiations on technology since 1992 and the steady increase in the international diffusion of climate mitigation technologies leads to the perhaps controversial view that the diffusion of climate mitigation technologies does not need strong international coordination over technology issues under the UNFCCC. However, climate negotiations can play a key role in stimulating the demand for low-carbon technologies by setting ambitious emission reductions targets and policies.     

The neoliberal elephant: Exploring the impacts of the trade ban in ivory on the commodification and neoliberalisation of elephants

This paper uses a case study that explores the impacts of the ivory trade ban on elephant management in Namibia to illuminate the processes and complexities associated with the commodification and neoliberalisation of nature. The paper demonstrates that the ivory trade ban neither prevents the commodification of elephants, nor hampers the neoliberalisation of nature. By tracing Namibia’s experience associated with applying market based approaches to elephant conservation, this paper highlights that the ivory trade ban is only one obstacle among many which prevent the commodification of the ‘living’ elephant. Analysing Namibia’s experiences alongside the wider debates informing elephant conservation reveals that actors of preservation and sustainable utilisation produce elephants. In particular, during the events leading up to the 1989 ivory trade ban, advocates of preservation produced a very lucrative representation of the elephant that relies on market mechanisms. This image has become a powerful commodity that competes with parts of the biophysical elephant (particularly its ivory) and therefore creates new and contesting ways in which elephants can be commodified.     

甘肃皋兰—白银—靖远地区早白垩世沙漠沉积 的特征及其古风带恢复

在前人对甘肃白银—靖远地区早白垩世河口群(K1H)沙漠研究的基础上,对皋兰地区的河口群进行了沉积结构、构造和石英砂颗粒表面特征等综合对比分析,确认皋兰地区亦存在沙漠沉积。首次通过系统测量研究区风成沙丘的前积层的产状,对当时的古风向、古风带进行了恢复,结果表明,早白垩世晚期研究区盛行西风,与东部鄂尔多斯盆地早白垩世罗汉洞组(K1l)沙漠沉积风向记录完全一致。岩性特征与古风向的一致性表明,研究区与鄂尔多斯盆地均处于北半球西风带中,研究区可能为“古鄂尔多斯沙海”的一部分。     

边境贸易与环境保护协调发展研究──以内蒙古呼伦贝尔盟为例*

我国边境贸易作为对外开放的重要组成部分,已获得显着进展。本文在概述我国边境贸易发展过程中所产生的一系列环境问题基础上,以内蒙古呼伦贝尔盟为例,探讨了边境贸易与环境保护协调发展的途径。阐明了:(1)在口岸发展进程中,大气环境、水环境中污染物浓度有增高趋势,固体废弃物排放量增大,应通过城市综合整治,消除污染隐患。(2)在出口商品生产基地建设过程中,在合理利用自然资源的同时,应强调维护生态良性循环,防止过度开垦与放牧,防治湖泊富营养化,倡导清洁生产,用优质产品开拓国际市场。(3)在边境贸易发展过程中,应加强在环境保护领域的国际合作。     

1895-2016年全球海运网络中的海峡两岸港口运输联系变化

台湾地区与中国大陆隔海相望,海上运输是两岸间货物往来的最主要方式。受国际政治和贸易模式的影响,从19世纪中后期以来,两岸港口运输联系变化剧烈。利用劳合社（Lloyd's）1895-2016年两岸港口间航线的O-D数据,从国家层面和全球层面研究海峡两岸港口运输联系的变化。主要结论为：① 近代开埠至割让给日本之前,台湾地区与大陆的海运联系紧密,厦门港是台湾地区最重要的中转港;日据之后,台湾地区成为日本的原料来源地和商品销售地,台湾地区—日本—中国大陆形成三角运输联系;两岸对峙后,两岸港口运输联系切断,台湾地区—美国—日本形成三角贸易网络;1979年后,香港港成为两岸运输联系的最重要中转港,两岸直航后,台湾地区与大陆间的港口运输联系在广度和深度上不断拓展。② 台湾地区区位优势明显,但由于是海岛,陆向腹地狭小,因此充分利用区位优势和地缘优势,把区域经济增长中心作为自身的海向腹地,以形成紧密的海上运输联系是台湾地区经济持续发展的关键。改善与中国大陆之间的关系、分享中国大陆发展的机遇、推动海峡两岸的港口运输联系是台湾地区的“天时”与“人和”。     

Spillover effect offsets the conservation effort in the Amazon

Diverse conservation efforts have been expanding around the globe, even under the stress of increasing agricultural production. A striking example is the supply-chain agreements put upon the Amazon forest which had reduced deforestation by 80% from the early 2000s (27,772 km²) to 2015 (6207 km²). However, evaluation of these conservation efforts usually focused on the impacts within the Amazon biome only, while the effects that spill over to other areas (e.g., displacement of environmental pressure from one area to another) were rarely considered. Ignoring spillover effects may lead to biased or even wrong conclusions about the effectiveness of these conservation efforts because the hidden cost outside the target area of conservation may offset the achievement within it. It is thus important to assess the spillover effects of these supply-chain agreements. In this study, we used the two supply-chain agreements (i.e., Soy Moratorium and zero-deforestation beef agreement) implemented in the Amazon biome as examples and evaluated their spillover effects to the Cerrado. To achieve a holistic evaluation of the spillover effects, we adopted the telecoupling framework in our analysis. The application of the telecoupling framework includes the interactions between distant systems and extends the analytical boundaries beyond the signatory areas, which fill the gap of previous studies. Our results indicate that the supply-chain agreements have significantly reduced deforestation by half compared to projections within the sending system (i.e., Pará State in the Amazon, which exports soybeans and other agricultural products), but at the cost of increasing deforestation in the spillover system (i.e., a 6.6 time increase in Tocantins State of the Cerrado, where deforestation was affected by interactions between the Amazon and other places). Our study emphasizes that spillover effects should be considered in the evaluation and planning of conservation efforts, for which the telecoupling framework works as a useful tool to do that systematically.     

经贸视角下中国台湾“新南向政策”分析——基于SNA和VAR方法

中国台湾“新南向政策”倍受社会关注。基于经贸视角及2001~2015年贸易数据,在分析经济依赖度及国际竞争力基础上,通过社会网络分析（SNA）方法探讨中国大陆在贸易网络中的地位及其对中国台湾的影响,利用VAR脉冲响应函数对比分析中国台湾与中国大陆、新南向国家的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的影响。研究结果表明：新南向国家对中国大陆的经济依赖度远高于其对中国台湾的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是中国台湾难以替代的;中国台湾对中国大陆的经济依赖度明显高于其对新南向国家的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是新南向国家难以替代的;中国大陆在贸易网络格局中处于核心地位,对于提升中国台湾贸易网络地位起着重要促进作用;中国大陆与中国台湾的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的正向效应明显高于新南向国家。中国台湾当局应秉承“九二共识”,抓住机遇,积极推进“新南向政策”与“一带一路”倡议融合,加强同中国大陆的经贸合作与交流,促进其经济稳定持续发展。