工艺和生产方式(PPMs)对国际贸易的影响和对策

WTO成员方是否能以保护环境为由,对通过污染型工艺和方式生产的产品在进口时采取限制或禁止措施,这是国际贸易与环境领域关注的焦点.本文对工艺和生产方式相关的概念、边境贸易措施、WTO/GATT规则及其发展趋势等作了深入研究和探讨,分析了PPMs措施扩大应用的可能性及对发展中国家的影响,并提出了应对措施建议.     

Changes in the Indonesian Clothing Industry: Trade and Regulation

Policy frameworks at national and international levels have significant influence on the growth performance and industrialisation of developing economies. This paper aims to explore the influence of such regulatory policy frameworks on the development of the Indonesian clothing industry since the mid‐1980s based on an analysis of national clothing trade statistics provided by the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. Although the Indonesian policy framework had a general export‐orientation, protectionist measures for the domestic market proved to be important in facilitating the growth of the Indonesian clothing industry. This paper also shows how the existing international clothing trade regulatory framework of the Multi‐Fibre Arrangement (MFA) influenced the integration of Indonesian clothing firms into global production and trade networks. Finally, the future policy changes and potential impacts for Indonesian clothing firms are discussed.     

Spatial policies towards the Seoul Capital Region

This paper describes and evaluates the impact of spatial policies towards the Capital Region of Korea (the Seoul Capital Region hereafter). Following the introductory section, the second section presents an overview of trends of concentrations of people and employment in the Seoul Capital Region since 1960. The evolution of spatial policies and the major policy instruments employed is described together with an assessment of the validity of the perception of excessive concentration in the Region. In the third section, the impact of spatial polices towards the Seoul Capital Region is evaluated based on new empirical evidence as well as findings from previous studies. The impact of policies on the spatial distribution of jobs and populations between the Seoul Capital Region and the rest of the country, as well as that of specific policies such as green belts, and the new towns project is analyzed. The section ends with a discussion of public opinion on spatial policies revealed through recent surveys. The last section addresses the political economy of spatial policies and concludes with thoughts on the way forward considering the changing environment for spatial policies.     

我国环渤海地区迈向21世纪面临的国际竞争与国际合作

本文对沿海地带北方区段环渤海地区的国际、国内环境及其战略地位进行了分析，并对其目前的国际贸易与国际合作现状和问题，以及加强其国际竞争地位的策略进行了重点论述。     

Why does emissions trading under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) not affect firms’ competitiveness? Empirical findings from the literature

Environmental policies may have important consequences for firms’ competitiveness or profitability. For the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) the empirical literature documents that significant emissions reductions have resulted from it. Surprisingly, however, the literature shows that there have been hardly any concurrent negative effects on firms’ competitiveness during the first two phases of the scheme (2005–2012). We show that the main explanations for the absence of negative impacts on competitiveness are a large over-allocation of emissions allowances leading to a price drop and the ability of firms to pass costs onto consumers in some sectors. Cost pass-through combined with free allocation, in turn, partly generated windfall profits. In addition, the relatively low importance of energy costs indicated by their average share in the budgets of most manufacturing industries may have limited the impact of the EU ETS. Finally, small but significant stimulating effects on innovation have been found so far. Several factors suggest that over-allocation is likely to remain substantial in the upcoming periods of the scheme. Therefore, we expect to see no negative competitiveness effects from the EU ETS in Phases III and IV (2013–2030).

Key policy insights

• Empirical literature on the EU ETS shows that there have been hardly any effects on firms’ competitiveness or profitability.

• One main explanation is a large over-allocation of emissions allowances leading to a price drop. This reduced incentives for innovation.

• Moreover, firms were able to pass costs on to consumers in some sectors which partly generated windfall profits.

• Innovation effects have so far been small but positive.

• We expect to see no negative competitiveness effects on regulated firms in the near future suggesting that no further reliefs for regulated firms are required.

     

全球镍矿贸易网络的供应风险传播研究

镍是全球能源低碳转型所需的关键金属之一。近年来受资源保护、地缘政治冲突、突发事件等的影响, 镍供应风险随时可能发生。因此, 了解不同国家供应危机的传播过程和影响强度, 对于贸易国来说非常重要。为了探讨这一问题, 我们使用2020年的数据构建了全球镍矿贸易网络, 并在此基础上建立了级联失效模型。因此, 本文不仅模拟了供应风险在贸易网络中的传播过程, 而且导出了一个雪崩网络用来分析危机传播动力学的结构特征。结果表明: (1)影响供应危机传播过程动力学的一个决定性参数r=7时, 不同国家镍矿供应风险雪崩规模之间的差异性能够良好体现。(2)不同国家发生供应风险时, 出口量最大的国家不一定影响最多的国家。(3)只有菲律宾的供应短缺能引发中国的镍矿供应危机。(4)在级联过程中, 间接链路在风险的传播中起着关键作用。     

中国铍资源供给风险分析

铍在航空航天、国防和一些特殊领域具有不可替代性,是关乎国家安全和高端制造业的关键性矿产之一。本文从铍资源分布、供应和需求等角度出发,分析了全球资源供需格局,并基于产业链视角剖析了中国铍资源的供应、产业等风险。研究结果显示,我国铍资源禀赋较差,未来供应增长潜力有限,不能满足未来需求的快速增长;高端铍产品技术存在短板,严重依赖进口;全球铍资源的供应链、产业链呈现高度垄断特征,安全风险高。基于未来安全风险,本文从增强战略储备、拓展进口来源、加大科技攻关三个方面提出针对性建议,为我国铍产业链安全供应提供参考。     

Securitizing REDD+? Problematizing the emerging illegal timber trade and forest carbon interface in East Africa

A rapidly growing literature interrogates the social and economic impacts of various Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) schemes in Sub-Saharan Africa. Less often, however, have scholars examined the necessary corollary of such initiatives; that is, both new and enhanced law enforcement initiatives to combat the global trade in illegal forest products and secure property rights to conserved forests. Drawing upon recent consultative experiences for relevant multinational agencies in East Africa, we critically analyze the emergent features of this additional ‘dark side’ of REDD+, highlighting in particular both its potential for ‘leakage’ effects on adjacent jurisdictions and deleterious implications for forest-dependent communities. Specifically, we highlight the ways in which such activities threaten to conflate illegal with informal trade in forest products; the ways in which they are potentially ill-suited for addressing the trade in charcoal as opposed to the trade in timber; and the incentives that they may provide for states to further marginalize indigenous forest-dwelling populations in the region. In doing so, we argue that this nascent synthesis of REDD+ and transnational law enforcement threatens to contribute significantly and regressively to the broader securitization of conservation in Sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere.     

贸易距离与“出口企业生产率之谜”——基于贸易方式和所有权的分析

在中国的出口部门中,低生产率企业的自发出口行为与异质企业贸易理论不符。以贸易距离作为企业出口成本的代理变量,将所有权结构和贸易方式引入标准的异质企业贸易模型研究该"悖论"。大量"纯出口企业"是造成该悖论的主要原因,该类企业贸易距离低于一般出口企业,且大量存在于加工贸易部门和外资企业。从事加工贸易的企业通常只负责产品的生产、加工或组装,存在事前的销售渠道,而外资企业同样存在事前的销售经历,即这2类企业的出口贸易距离均由于自身的异质性特征而被缩短,在此条件下,出口成为低生产率企业的自发选择。提高企业自主创新能力、加大研发投入是中国加工贸易企业转型的必然途径。     

“北极航道”开通与中国及其受影响区域的贸易增长潜力分析

在考虑船舶等待时间和海冰因素的基础上,以航行时间替代航运距离,对传统的贸易引力模型进行修正,量化评估了"北极航道"开通对中国及其受影响区域的贸易增长潜力。结果表明:(1)航行时间与进出口总额之间呈负相关关系,航行时间每减少1%,将使中国的进出口贸易总额增加0.6590%;(2)海冰因素会对贸易潜力的提升产生较大影响。在存在海冰的情况下,由于"北极航道"在航运距离上的天然优势,将使中国的贸易潜力增长10.95%,使中国受影响的北部沿海地区和东部沿海地区的贸易潜力分别增长12.02%和11.22%;一旦海冰消融、"北极航道"全面通航,中国及其受影响的北部沿海地区和东部沿海地区的贸易潜力则会得到进一步提升,提升效应将达到20%以上。