低碳经济与国际贸易结构转型研究综述

全球气候变化是当今人类面临的重大挑战之一,低碳经济在此背景下应运而生,成为世界各国政府和学术界关注的焦点。低碳经济背景下国际贸易结构变化和转型的研究也已开展起来,研究成果主要集中在低碳经济与能源消耗、碳排放的关系以及低碳经济背景下国际贸易结构转型路径等方面。尽管近年来研究取得很大进展,但由于各个学者选择的研究变量、研究地域和研究时段的不同,导致研究结果存在差异和分歧。各国学者出于代表本国或本区域利益的原因,对低碳贸易的研究侧重点不同,特别是与低碳贸易政策有关的研究存在利益分歧。而国内学者的研究大多是在借鉴国外研究成果的基础上展开,理论和方法上的创新不够。为此,迫切需要我国学者作进一步的研究,从中国的国情出发,研究如何解决低碳背景下我国外贸结构的优化、碳交易市场的拓展、碳关税的应对策略、碳金融的创新以及分行业、分地区的外贸转型发展等问题。     

Forests and water in South America

South America is experiencing rapid change in forest cover, of both native and planted forest. Forest cover loss is primarily attributable to fire, logging, and conversion of native forest to agriculture, pasture, and forest plantations, and types of change vary within and among the many diverse types of forests in South America. Major changes in forest cover and growing policy concerns underscore an urgent need for research on sustainable forest management and water ecosystem services in South America. Differences in land ownership and management objectives create trade‐offs between wood production and water ecosystem services from forests. Work is needed to quantify how forest change and management affect ecosystem services, such as wood production versus water provision. Current scientific understanding of forest management effects on water ecosystem services in South America has important limitations, including a scarcity of long‐term records and few long‐term integrated watershed studies. Industry, government, universities, and local communities should collaborate on integrated applied studies of forests and water. Data archiving and publically available data are required. The creation of national networks and a multi‐country South America network to identify and implement common water research protocols, share results, and explore their implications would promote common and well‐supported policies. Hydrologists working in South America are well placed to tackle the challenges and opportunities for collaborative research that will maintain the intrinsic values and water ecosystem services provided by South America's forests.     

贸易风险经济影响与区域分布的实证研究——以广东省为例

对外贸易是一国或地区与世界经济联系的重要纽带,经济全球化会通过进出口贸易对一国或地区经济带来就业和经济增长等方面的风险。因此研究贸易风险及其区域分布对于稳定区域经济增长与扩大就业具有重要的现实意义。本文以广东省为例,研究贸易风险的经济影响及其区域空间分布。实证研究表明,出口的增长对于地区经济的成长和就业的增长尤其重要;然而,过分地依赖出口,将不利于地区经济的稳健成长,也不利于就业的增长,贸易依存度高的地区一旦出口受阻,则会带来失业增加、产业受损等不利后果。对广东省贸易风险的空间分布分析表明,贸易风险较高的地区主要集中于珠三角地区,尤其是东莞、深圳、惠州和珠海等地区。这对贸易风险防范具有重要指导意义,当全球经济有衰退趋势时,贸易依存度较高的地区应提前做好贸易风险防范的措施。     

中国各省区碳足迹与碳排放空间转移

减排责任的区域分解需要科学评价各地区的排放责任。碳足迹可以全面客观地评价为满足消费而进行的生产的生命周期碳排放水平, 除了生产过程的直接碳排放, 也包括生产过程中所消耗的中间产品的隐含碳排放。应用2007 年各省区投入产出模型和2002 年中国省区间投入产出模型, 定量测算了各省区的碳足迹和省区间的碳排放转移。结果显示, 各省区之间碳足迹和人均碳足迹存在显著的差异。碳足迹较大的省份为经济大省, 主要分布在北方地区;人均碳足迹较高的省份主要是北京、上海等中心城市和能源富集区域及重化工基地;中国存在着从能源富集区域和重化工基地分布区域向经济发达区域和产业结构不完整的欠发达区域的碳排放空间转移。上述结果表明, 人均碳足迹高的经济发达省份应承担较大的减排责任, 能源富集区域和重化工基地分布区域有相当一部分的碳排放是为沿海发达省份和产业结构不完整的欠发达省份提供电力、原材料等高碳产品所致, 减排责任的区域分解需要考虑碳排放空间转移的因素, 适当减轻能源富集区域和重化工基地分布区域的减排责任, 或使沿海发达省份向能源富集区域和重化工区域提供资金和技术上的扶持, 帮助这些区域提高能源利用效率, 减少碳排放。     

“一带一路”国家天然气供需特征及相关建议

能源合作是“一带一路”战略的重要内容,我国作为世界最大的能源消费国,每年要从世界各地进口大量能源资源特别是油气资源,并且对外依存度逐年攀升,油气安全问题令人担忧。实施“一带一路”战略,加强与沿途国家的能源合作,能为我国能源安全提供保障。天然气作为清洁、高效能源,对缓解能源短缺和环境污染具有重要作用,在世界能源消费结构中占据重要地位。通过对“一带一路”主要能源国家天然气产量、消费量、进/出口贸易量数据的搜集与分析,明确了主要国家天然气供需及贸易特点,并且提出了一些在“一带一路”合作框架下更有力地发展我国天然气行业的建议。     

论当代区域经济集团化与南北贸易

20世纪90年代以来,世界经济集团化有了长足的发展,它对南北贸易会产生什么样的影响呢?文章应用贸易创造效应与贸易转移效应两个分析工具,分析了区域经济集团化对南北贸易的影响,并对南北贸易面临的一系列机遇和挑战进行了评价。而中国作为最大的南方国家,应采取积极的参与战略和稳妥的推进战略。     

民国时期华北区域经济发展探讨

文章从华北商品经济的发展和对外贸易的变动2个方面探讨了民国初年至抗日战争爆发前华北区域经济的发展态势,证明了这一时期华北区域经济发展向上增长和逐渐向现代转化的趋势,最后指出虽然这一时期华北的经济有了一定发展,但整个华北区域经济的发展仍表现出明显的不均衡性。     

河北省贸易隐含二氧化碳排放及其影响因素研究

针对全球气候变化而引发国家间减排责任的争吵,需要各国从生产和消费的角度来认识二氧化碳排放,国家内部区域之间减排责任的分担也应该从生产和消费两个角度加以认识。为此,本文利用投入产出分析方法和EEBT(双边贸易隐含排放)核算方法核算河北省的二氧化碳排放,发现河北省生产型二氧化碳排放远大于其消费型二氧化碳排放,其中国内流出/流入引发的二氧化碳排放量较大。在利用SDA(结构分解分析法)分析影响贸易隐含二氧化碳排放变化因素时,发现行业二氧化碳排放强度变化对隐含二氧化碳排放具有积极影响,而国民经济行业之间技术经济关系的变化对隐含二氧化碳排放具有消极影响。因此,河北省在利用技术手段降低行业二氧化碳排放强度的同时,还要筛选关键性部门加以重点管理。同时,河北省贸易隐含二氧化碳排放及其影响因素变化对国家制定区域减排责任也有较强参考价值。     

Export upgrading and environmental performance: Evidence from China

This study argues that export upgrading can, but does not necessarily, lead to environmental improvement. A synergy between global and local linkage determines the likely disjuncture between export upgrading and environmental improvement. On the basis of the panel data covering 261 prefectural-level cities in China during 2003–2011, this study applies the decomposition of export sophistication to quantify diverse upgrading types. It also divides the sample cities into groups and uses the fixed-effect regression by groups to investigate the role of local linkages. Empirical findings indicate that environmental improvement associated with export upgrading in China has largely relied on changing product mix to avoid environmental costs, exhibiting a significant displacement effect. The role of efficiency promotion of production process is still insignificant. Local linkage may alter the environmental effects of export upgrading. Specialisation in polluting production can help cities to change product mix through the agglomeration of related firms. Stringent environmental regulation protects cities from the export–environment disjuncture through imposing additional costs. These findings suggest that the greening efforts of China should take one step further from export restructuring to efficiency promoting.     

Transboundary fisheries management in the Amazon: Assessing current policies for the management of the ornamental silver arawana (Osteoglossum bicirrhosum)

The management and governance of shared stocks have long been identified as a challenge to achieve long-term sustainability in fisheries. This is the situation of fisheries in the Amazon basin, a region shared by nine countries. This paper provides an overview of the social-ecological outcomes and management implications of sharing fish stocks among countries with different public policies, taking the valuable Amazonian ornamental silver arawana (Osteoglossum bicirrhosum) trade as a case study. Specifically, it (i) presents and discusses the policies of Colombia, Peru and Brazil for the silver arawana fishery, and how these are conducive for the successful management of this shared transboundary fishery; and (ii) analyzes the market for the ornamental silver arawana and how it affects the ability to sustainably manage the fishery. The interplay between the multiple environmental, economic and social dimensions involved in the ornamental silver arawana fishery affects the sustainability of this species even in Brazil, where this fishing is forbidden but still illegally caught by Colombians and Peruvians. Among the factors that make fisheries policies inefficient in this region are: (i) incongruent policies between the countries and institutions with low organizational capacity to accomplish the established policies; (ii) environmental heterogeneity of Amazonian aquatic systems, which requires local and adaptive measures; and (iii) complex socio-economic relationships in the live-fish trade business. Legally binding efforts to reduce problems derived from shared fish stocks are an urgent need and should be addressed by the multilateral organizations created for the Amazonian sustainable development.