利用北极地区定时风观测资料推算年最大风速的重现期

北极地区风观测资料较少,工程气象参数的分析主要依靠国际交换站资料。但是,国际交换站资料为定时资料,并且存在较多质量问题。因此,在利用国际交换站资料时,需先对其进行质量控制,并且要考虑定时资料的转换。由于缺少其他参考资料,国际交换站资料的质量控制主要根据北极地区天气气候特征,通过时间一致性、空间一致性和要素间一致性检验进行。由于重现期风速需用年最大风速(通常是10 min平均风速)计算,鉴于定时资料中可能没有出现年最大风速,而目前又没有较好的定时资料向逐时资料转换的方法,因此,主要通过从定时资料统计得到的年最大值计算的重现期风速进行订正得到重现期风速。订正的方法是根据我国部分风速较大地区的观测结果,引入风速方差,建立定时资料与年最大风速资料计算的重现期风速之间的关系,然后利用此关系订正北极喀拉海和拉普捷夫海沿岸定时资料计算的重现期风速,得到了50年和100年一遇的风速。     

日本乡村振兴政策演变及其效果分析

研究乡村振兴的国际经验,对我国乡村振兴政策的制定具有借鉴作用。本文分析了日本20世纪70年代以来的乡村振兴法案,利用KH Coder软件对系列法案进行文本定量分析,揭示日本乡村振兴的政策演变轨迹和效果。分析表明：日本乡村振兴经历了农业规模化生产起步、基础设施提升、多元融合提升阶段,三阶段依次表现为扩大农业生产规模、重振乡村活力,加强基础设施建设、大力开发乡村旅游,发展有机农业、促进乡村可持续发展的特点。借鉴日本的经验,中国乡村振兴应针对乡村地域类型采取积极措施：（1）制定针对性的农地使用政策,保障农业用地安全,加强乡村三次产业融合发展,推进乡村基础设施的现代化和均等化;（2）保护具有地方性特色的农产品品牌,以文旅融合等方式刺激乡村经济结构更新与增长;（3）开展农业专业化培训与“职业化农民”队伍建设,大力发展生态农业,促进乡村经济、社会与环境的协调、可持续发展。     

中国交通运输地理学的研究进展与展望

交通运输地理学是人文地理学的重要分支学科,有必要考察其研究进展和发展趋向。在界定评述体系的基础上,本文从学科理论构筑、区域综合交通与区划、部门交通、城市交通、空间效应等角度,回顾了我国交通运输地理学的发展历史和研究过程以及最新进展,梳理出该学科自20世纪20年代以来的发展和研究的宏观脉络,并对其进行简单总结和评述。同时参考相关权威杂志,简单介绍了国际交通运输地理学的最新研究动态和热点。然后根据我国的研究进展和特殊社会经济环境,结合国际最新研究动态,探讨未来我国交通运输地理学的研究趋向和发展态势。     

广州日本移民的生活活动与生活空间

改革开放后广州对外贸易持续快速增长,吸引了大批外籍人士迁入,其中日本移民的增长尤为显著。本文以问卷调查和半结构化访谈的方法,对居住在广州市的日本移民的生活活动空间进行研究。从宏观上探讨其聚居形态,从微观上把握其居住、购物、饮食、教育、交友等生活活动的空间行为特征及其制约因素。研究表明,在广州的日本移民主要为受企业派遣的旅居移民及其家属,其生活活动空间相对孤立和封闭。促成其封闭性或源于两方面因素：一是由于多语言环境、针对移民的政策法规及社会保障制度缺失等制度环境的影响,二是由移民的生活习惯及民族性格所造成的文化特性使然。日本移民的生活空间具有主动集聚和被动隔离的特征,而提高城市的国际化水平有助于增加其选择机会,减少封闭性的形成。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed is the article: Small-State Security in the Balkans . Aurel Braun. South American Development: A Geographical Introduction . Rosemary D. F. Bromley and Ray Bromley. Interregional Migration, National Policy and Social Justice . Gordon L. Clark. Marketing Architectural and Engineering Services . Weld Coxe. A Geography of the Third World . J. P. Dickenson, C. G. Clarke, W. T. S. Gould, R. M. Prothero, D. J. Siddle, C. T. Smith, E. M. Thomas-Hope, and A. G. Hodgkiss. Wildlife and Man in Texas: Environmental Change and Conservation . Robin W. Doughty. At the Sea's Edge . William T. Fox. Englewood Cliffs Geography and Ecology . I. P. Gerasimov. Urbanization in Contemporary Latin America. Critical Approaches to the Analysis of Urban Issues . Alan Gilbert in association with Jorge E. Hardoy and Ronaldo Ramírez, eds. The Coming of the Transactional City . Jean Gottmann. College Park Visions of City and Country: Prints and Photographs of Nineteenth-Century France . Bonnie L. Grad and Timothy A. Riggs. Worcester Soviet Geography Today: Physical Geography . N. A. Gvozdetskiy, ed. Adaptive Responses of Native Amazonians . Raymond B. Hames and William T. Vickers, eds. Urban and Regional Industrial Research: The Changing UK Data Base . Michael Healey, ed. Cuando se Acaban los Montes . Stanley Heckadon Moreno. A Panama Forest and Shore: Natural History and Amerindian Culture in Bocas del Toro . Burton L. Gordon. Pacific Grove Mozambique: From Colonialism to Revolution, 1900–1982 . Allen Isaacman and Barbara Isaacman. Soviet Natural Resources in the World Economy . Robert G. Jensen, Theodore Shabad, and Arthur W. Wright, eds. The Changing Geography of the United Kingdom . R. J. Johnston and J. C. Doornkamp, eds. Pluralism and Political Geography—People, Territory and State . Nurit Kliot and Stanley Waterman, eds. Landmarks Preservation and the Property Tax . David Listokin. Irrigation Horticulture in Highland Guatemala: The Tablón System of Panajachel . Kent Mathewson. Her Space, Her Place: A Geography of Women . Mary Ellen Mazey and David R. Lee. Man, A Geomorphological Agent . Dov Nir. Dordrecht The Book of America: Inside the 50 States Today . Neal R. Peirce and Jerry Hagstrom. Rivers . Geoffrey E. Petts. Proceedings, United States/Australia Workshop on Design and Implementation of Computer-Based Geographic Information Systems . Donna Peuquet and John O'Callaghan, eds. Outdoor Recreational and Resource Management . John Pigram. Remaking the City: Social Science Perspectives on Urban Design . John S. Pipkin, Mark La Gory and Judith R. Blau, eds. The Crust of Our Earth: An Armchair Traveler's Guide to the New Geology . Chet Raymo. Englewood Cliffs Concepts and Themes in the Regional Geography of Canada J. Lewis Robinson. Vancouver Secondary Cities in Developing Countries: Policies for Diffusing Urbanization . Dennis A. Rondinelli. Beverly Hills Legal Foundations of Environmental Planning , Vol 1. J. G. Rose. Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming? Stephen Seidel and Dale Keyes. Mobilizing Human Resources in the Arab World . R. Paul Shaw. Prairie Mosaic: An Ethnic Atlas of Rural North Dakota . William C. Sherman. The Future of Conflict in the 1980s . William J. Taylor, Jr. and Steven A. Maaranen, eds. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information . Edward R. Tufte. U.S. 40 Today: Thirty Years of landscape Change in America . Thomas R. Vale and Geraldine R. Vale. Madison Silent Violence: Food, Famine and Peasantry in Northern Nigeria . Michael Watts. Readings in Historic Preservation: Why? What? How? Norman Williams Jr., Edmund Kellogg and Frank Gilbert, eds.     

土耳其“中间走廊”倡议:基础、动因及地缘政治影响

土耳其地跨欧亚大陆,具有独特的区位和地缘政治优势。土耳其立足自身需求和交通基础,提出“中间走廊”倡议,旨在欧亚大陆跨国运输和经贸往来中充分发挥枢纽功能,提升区域大国影响力,“中间走廊”倡议对周边地区和国家具有潜在的地缘政治影响。“中间走廊”倡议进一步强化土耳其、阿塞拜疆、格鲁吉亚等国之间的政治联盟关系,存在孤立亚美尼亚嫌疑,对俄罗斯的交通区位优势和地缘政治影响力有一定的冲击;对中亚地区的影响具有多维性,既有积极因素,也有潜在风险。在欧亚大陆互联互通层面,“一带一路”倡议与“中间走廊”倡议存在合作基础,二者战略对接过程中,中国需要根据时局变化,充分认识和评估彼此的战略诉求和利益布局,以及文化和历史差异,求同存异,寻求利益契合点,规避潜在的地缘政治风险。     

京津冀城市工业对雾霾污染影响的溢出效应——基于制造业投资城市网络的视角北大核心CSCD

工业生产对城市环境质量的影响具有空间溢出效应,但鲜有研究从城市网络的视角探讨城市工业基于产业投资联系对环境污染影响的溢出效应。论文使用2004—2018年京津冀城市间制造业企业投资数据,分析京津冀制造业投资城市网络特征,并创建城市间制造业投资联系矩阵,结合空间计量模型,实证检验基于制造业投资城市网络的京津冀城市工业对雾霾污染影响的溢出效应。研究发现:京津冀城市间制造业互投资中污染型制造业投资增长最显著,且相比于其他类型的制造业投资,污染型制造业投资城市网络更加分散,是造成城市工业对雾霾污染影响溢出的重要渠道。从时空演变来看,京津冀城市间污染型制造业投资城市网络不断扩张,可能造成城市工业对空气质量更广泛的跨地区影响。实证结果验证了城市工业通过制造业投资城市网络带来雾霾污染的空间溢出,这种溢出的传输机制是通过城市间的产业投资联系,且和投资的产业类型有关。相比于其他类型的制造业投资,污染型制造业投资联系造成的雾霾污染溢出效应最强。因此,城市群地区需要统筹协调好城市间的产业发展,才能更有效地应对区域环境挑战。     

Methodology for practical seismic assessment of unreinforced masonry buildings with historical value

Historical constructions are part of the world heritage, and their survival is an important priority. Comprising mostly unreinforced, load‐bearing masonry, heritage buildings may date anywhere from antiquity to the 19th and early 20th century. Being exposed to the elements over the years, they are in various states of disrepair and material degradation. Based on postearthquake reconnaissance reports, these structures occasionally behave rather poorly, even in moderate seismic events, undergoing catastrophic damage and collapse, whereas retrofitting is governed by international conventions regarding noninvasiveness and reversibility of the intervention. The complexity of their structural systems (continuous structural components, lack of diaphragm action, material brittleness, and variability) challenges the established methods of condition assessment of preretrofitted and postretrofitted heritage constructions. The most advanced state of the art in materials and analysis tools is required, far more complex than with conventional buildings. Thus, an assessment procedure specifically geared to this class of structures is urgently needed, in order to assist engineers in this endeavor. The objective of this paper is the development of a performance‐based assessment framework that is palatable to practitioners and quite accurate in seismic assessment of unreinforced masonry buildings with no diaphragm action. The underlying theoretical background of the method is illustrated with reference to first principles: global demand is obtained from the design earthquake scenario for the region, using empirical estimates for the prevailing translational period of the system; deformation demands are localized using an approximation to the translational 3‐D shape of lateral response, estimated using a uniform gravitational field in the direction of action of the earthquake; acceptance criteria are specified in terms of relative drift ratios, referring to the in‐plane and the out‐of‐plane action of the masonry piers. The quantitative accuracy of the introduced procedure is evaluated through comparison with detailed time‐history dynamic analysis results, using a real life example case study. Qualitative relevance of the results is evaluated through comparison of the location and extent of anticipated damage estimated from the proposed assessment procedure, with reported records of the building damages that occurred during a significant past earthquake event.     

1895-2016年全球海运网络中的海峡两岸港口运输联系变化

台湾地区与中国大陆隔海相望,海上运输是两岸间货物往来的最主要方式。受国际政治和贸易模式的影响,从19世纪中后期以来,两岸港口运输联系变化剧烈。利用劳合社（Lloyd's）1895-2016年两岸港口间航线的O-D数据,从国家层面和全球层面研究海峡两岸港口运输联系的变化。主要结论为：① 近代开埠至割让给日本之前,台湾地区与大陆的海运联系紧密,厦门港是台湾地区最重要的中转港;日据之后,台湾地区成为日本的原料来源地和商品销售地,台湾地区—日本—中国大陆形成三角运输联系;两岸对峙后,两岸港口运输联系切断,台湾地区—美国—日本形成三角贸易网络;1979年后,香港港成为两岸运输联系的最重要中转港,两岸直航后,台湾地区与大陆间的港口运输联系在广度和深度上不断拓展。② 台湾地区区位优势明显,但由于是海岛,陆向腹地狭小,因此充分利用区位优势和地缘优势,把区域经济增长中心作为自身的海向腹地,以形成紧密的海上运输联系是台湾地区经济持续发展的关键。改善与中国大陆之间的关系、分享中国大陆发展的机遇、推动海峡两岸的港口运输联系是台湾地区的“天时”与“人和”。     

Migration Permanence and Village Decline in Zacatecas: When You Can't Go Home Again

At the same time that the Third World has become more dependent on international wage-labor migration, developed countries have become less hospitable to this migration. This inhospitality is beginning to have negative repercussions on rural sending regions such as north-central Mexico. This study is based on a survey of a stratified random sample of households in Villanueva municipio (county), Zacatecas, in 1988 and again in 2002, employing the same questions and methodology. The results suggest that restrictive U.S. border policies over this period have had a negative impact on village economies in the municipio. Although migrant families continued to hold a distinctive edge on nonmigrant families in terms of possessions and productive investments, there was a decline overall in levels of investment and remittances in the municipio. In the latter year, Villanueva had more nonmigrant families as well as more families with permanent migrants—both trends leading to less money remitted to rural families and lower agricultural investments. Observations and interviews with migrants and townspeople in the municipio in 2005 and 2008 strongly corroborate these trends. Rural villages are facing depopulation, disinvestment and, it might be argued, a deterioration of hope for the future.