人工智能技术气候预测应用简介

近年来,随着人工智能技术在多个领域大数据分析中的应用,许多研究工作者尝试将地学研究与人工智能跨学科结合,取得了很多新的进展,推动了地球科学的发展。其中气候预测与人类生活以及防灾减灾等息息相关,准确的气候预测至关重要。本文简要总结了人工智能技术在气候预测应用方面的研究进展,包括资料同化、模式参数化、求解偏微分方程、构建统计预测模型、改进数值模式产品释用等领域。这些研究证明了利用人工智能提高气候预测技巧的可能性和适用性,可以极大地节省计算成本和时间。然而人工智能应用也存在诸多挑战,例如数据集的构建、模型的适用性和物理可解释性等问题,对这些难点问题的研究和攻克,可以让人工智能在大数据时代中更好地补充传统地球科学方法,产生更多有益的效应,极大地改进气候预测水平。     

遥感卫星数据产品分类分级规则研究

随着遥感卫星应用的发展,多源、多时相、多尺度以及不同类型遥感卫星的数据综合集成应用以及与地面观测信息集成,对遥感信息产品进行深度开发利用正在成为遥感应用的重要趋势。目前不同国家和地区、不同系列的遥感卫星数据产品分别采用不同的分类分级方案,难以适应多源、多系列地理空间信息整合应用的需求。本文从遥感应用对遥感卫星数据产品分类分级的需求出发,分析了目前主要遥感卫星的产品系列及其数据产品分类分级规则,参考了正在研究的相关国际标准,遵循系统性、科学性、完整性、兼容性、可操作性和可扩充性原则,研究提出了中国遥感卫星数据产品分类分级的规则。该规则以卫星载荷采用的遥感探测光谱特征及其数据获取方式作为分类依据,以卫星遥感数据的处理水平作为分级依据,建立统一的遥感卫星数据产品的分类分级体系。该规则与正在研究制订的相关国际标准保持一致,不但覆盖目前广泛应用的各类遥感卫星数据产品,而且能方便地建立与现有遥感卫星数据产品分类分级方案的映射关系,并且对未来的数据产品的分类分级留有比较充分的可扩充性,为遥感卫星数据产品分类分级指标体系的研究和相关国家标准的研制提供了依据。     

Study on sampling inspection scheme to digital products in GIS

Adopting a principle of “check-accept for the first rank, inspection for the second rank”, this paper briefly discusses the rationale of the sampling inspection and the sampling inspection schemes to digital products in GIS. The OC curve is drawn to explain the deficiency of the percent sampling inspection. Meanwhile, the method of One Time Limiting Quality of count selection is presented as the inspection scheme for production departments while the method of One Time After-inspection Mean Percent Defective Upper Limit of count selection is for acceptance departments.     

Interest in intermediate soft-classified maps in land change model validation: suitability versus transition potential

This study compares two types of intermediate soft-classified maps. The first type uses land use/cover suitability maps based on a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE). The second type focuses on the transition potential between land use/cover categories based on a multi-layer perceptron (MLP). The concepts and methodological approaches are illustrated in a comparable manner using a Corine data set from the Murcia region (2300 km², Spain) in combination with maps of drivers that were created with two stochastic, discretely operating, commonly used tools (MCE in CA_MARKOV and MLP in Land Change Modeler). The importance of the different approaches and techniques for the obtained results is illustrated by comparing the specific characteristics of both approaches by validating the suitability versus transition potential maps to each other using a Spearman correlation matrix and, between the Corine maps, using classical ROC (receiver operating characteristic) statistics. Then, we propose a new use of ROC statistics to compare these intermediate soft-classified maps with their respective hard-classified maps of the models for each category. The validation of these results can be beneficial in choosing a suitable model and provide a better understanding of the implications of the different modeling steps and the advantages and limitations of the modeling tools.     

EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEETING,WASHINGTON, D. C. June 8-9, 1973

Abstract

I argue that scientific disciplines are esteemed, supported, and patronized largely to the degree to which they are perceived as providing a “return” on invested societal resources. This “return” takes the form of scholarly products that help answer deep human questions or otherwise materially benefit members of the society whose resources they are. Such a view implies that disciplines exist in a “market” in which members compete for these limited resources by delivering products seen as valuable. In such a market, disciplinary relevance and survival are ultimately tied to decisions individual scholars practicing within the disciplines make about which research they pursue, the greater the perceived “return” the better for the long-term health of the discipline.     

Underplating and assimilation–fractional crystallization of Mesozoic intrusions in the Tongling area,Anhui Province,East China: evidence from xenoliths and host plutons

This paper presents new petrographic observations and geochemical and microprobe analyses for the Laomiaojishan, Xiaotongguanshan, and Tianebaodanshan intrusions in the Tongguanshan mineral district, East China. The plutons vary in composition from quartz monzonitic diorite to pyroxene monzonitic diorite, and contain gabbroic to dioritic xenoliths. The Xiaotongguanshan intrusion yields a SHRIMP zircon U–Pb age of 139.5±2.9 Ma, indicating Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous magmatism in the Lower Yangtze River Valley. Relative to host rocks, the gabbro and diorite xenoliths are low in SiO₂ (52.03–54.61 wt‐%), Al₂O₃ (12.87–14.43 wt‐%), and total alkalis (Na₂O+K₂O; 5.26–6.30 wt‐%), but high in MgO (5.41–11.66 wt‐%); the host rocks have high SiO₂ (59.97–64.44 wt‐%), Al₂O₃ (16.43–17.59 wt‐%), and total alkalis (6.67–8.25 wt‐%), but are low in MgO (1.52–2.50 wt‐%). Concentrations of rare earth elements (REEs) in the xenoliths (165.70–190.40 ppm) are similar to those in the host rocks (166.12–185.95 ppm), although the ratio of light REEs to heavy REEs in the xenoliths (3.39–4.27) is lower than that in the host plutons (4.86–5.94). All of the analysed rocks show similar REE patterns, although the xenoliths display marked positive Eu anomalies and the host rocks show slightly negative Eu anomalies. Values of epsilon Nd (t) ranges from ?4.9 to ?9.9 in the gabbro xenoliths and from ?11.4 to ?11.9 in the host intrusives. Initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios are 0.7064–0.7073 in the xenoliths and 0.7072–0.7084 in the quartz monzonitic diorite host rocks. Crystallization temperatures of hornblende and plagioclase in the gabbro xenoliths, diorite xenoliths, and host rocks are 816, 773–790, and 664–725°C, respectively, based on an amphibole–plagioclase geothermometer. The pressures recorded by these phases indicate that they formed at depths of 26, 12–15, and 3–4 km, respectively, based on an aluminum‐in‐hornblende geobarometer. The petrological and geochemical features of the analysed intrusions and xenoliths are consistent with their derivation from basic to intermediate‐acidic magmas that possibly formed via a series of complex interactions between underplated, mantle‐derived basaltic magma and varying amounts of middle‐ to lower‐crustal material, followed by assimilation–fractional crystallization.     

鲜水河断裂带跨断层形变中短期强震预测指标研究

通过对鲜水河断裂带跨断层短水准、短基线资料的分析研究,系统地提取测区内外5.5级以上地震前跨断层形变前兆异常特征,并作详细的整理、分析,综合得出监测区及附近中短期强震预测指标及预报方法。其结果显示:跨断层形变观测资料大多在震前1～3年出现异常,其异常表现形式以断层活动停滞、反向、突跳为主,震前半年左右异常发育至最高,临震前有明显回落,其前兆意义较为明确;水平形变测量的预测成功率高于垂直形变测量。     

Degradation of Bezafibrate with UV/H2O2 in Surface Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant Effluent

Bezafibrate (BZF), a widely used lipid regulator, is a potential threat to ecosystems and human health in water, and the recent research showed that advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) are much more effective for BZF degradation. In this study, we investigated the photochemical decomposition of BZF in surface water and effluent from waste water treatment plants (WWTP) by UV/H₂O₂ process. The results showed that the UV/H₂O₂ process was a promising method to remove BZF at low concentration, generally at µg L^?1 level. When initial concentrations reach 100 µg L^?1 in the deionized water, >99.8% of BZF could be removed in 16 min under UV intensity of 61.4 µm cm^?2, at the H₂O₂ concentration of 0.1 mg L^?1, and neutral pH condition. Moreover, BZF degradation was inhibited in this process when humic acid (HA) and inorganic solution anions were added to the deionized water solutions, including chloride, nitrate, bicarbonate, and sulfate, significantly. In the surface water and effluent of WWTP, however, the removal efficiency of BZF was lower than that in the deionized water because of the interference of complex constituents in the surface water and effluent. Some main intermediates at the m/z range of 100–400 were observed by high performance LC‐MS (HPLC/MS) and a simple pathway of BZF degradation by UV/H₂O₂ was proposed.     

Quantification of Diclofenac in Hospital Effluent and Identification of Metabolites and Degradation Products

In this study the occurrence of diclofenac and sub‐products in effluent emerging from the University Hospital at the Federal University of Santa Maria was investigated. One metabolite was identified and, in aqueous solution, three degradation products. The quantification was conducted by means of HPLC‐DAD, and the determination of metabolite and degradation products by LC–ESI–MS/MS–QTrap. For the HPLC‐DAD method, a 70:30 mixture of methanol/sodium phosphate was used in isocratic mode. For the LC–ESI–MS/MS–QTrap determinations, a mobile phase, where phase A was an ammonium acetate solution 5 × 10^?3 mol L^?1, and phase B was methanol (5 × 10^?3 mol L^?1)/ammonium acetate (9:1, v/v), on gradient mode. The LDs for the HPLC and LC–MS/MS methods, respectively, were 2.5 and 0.02 µg L^?1, the LQs, 8.3 and 0.05 µg L^?1, and the linear range from 10 up to 2000 µg L^?1 and 0.05 up to 10 µg L^?1. As expected, the LC–ESI–MS/MS–QTrap method was more sensitive and less laborious. The metabolite 4′‐hydroxy‐diclofenac was identified. Photolysis was used for the degradation studies and three products of diclofenac were identified (m/z of 214, 286 and 303) in aqueous solution. These results notwithstanding, no degradation products of diclofenac were found in the hospital effluent.     

Southern Ocean biogeochemical impact on the tropical ocean: Stable isotope records from the Pacific for the past 25,000 years

Modeling of oceanic nutrient fields indicates that the Southern Ocean may have a strong impact on the chemistry of the thermocline waters which upwell in the eastern tropical oceans and feed biological productivity there. The subantarctic is a primary source of equatorial undercurrent (EUC) waters. The Southern Ocean to equator connection has been shown through modeling to have a potential influence on atmospheric carbon dioxide content via an increase in the efficiency of the tropical biotic pump (silica leakage hypothesis). On the glacial–interglacial timescale the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) has a thermocline (EUC) carbon isotope record which is consistent with that idea and a stronger ice age biologic drawdown in the subantarctic. This carbon isotope record features glacial values more positive than those of the Holocene, which is the reverse of what is seen in the non-equatorial, stratified, ocean. We report planktonic carbon isotope records from the Pacific subantarctic in an effort to trace the unique EEP carbon isotope signature to its source. Our results are compatible with the subantarctic as a source of the tropical carbon isotope signature. Analysis of the glacial to Holocene isotopic pattern in terms of causative process indicates that an increased glacial subantarctic biotic pump accounts best for our observations. This supports the hypothesis of Southern Ocean drive on tropical biological production, and potential impact on the global carbon cycle.