Nonlinear determinism in river flow: prediction as a possible indicator

Whether or not river flow exhibits nonlinear determinism remains an unresolved question. While studies on the use of nonlinear deterministic methods for modeling and prediction of river flow series are on the rise and the outcomes are encouraging, suspicions and criticisms of such studies continue to exist as well. An important reason for this situation is that the correlation dimension method, used as a nonlinear determinism identification tool in most of those studies, may possess certain limitations when applied to real river flow series, which are always finite and often short and also contaminated with noise (e.g. measurement error). In view of this, the present study addresses the issue of nonlinear determinism in river flow series using prediction as a possible indicator. This is done by (1) reviewing studies that have employed nonlinear deterministic methods (coupling phase‐space reconstruction and local approximation techniques) for river flow predictions and (2) identifying nonlinear determinism (or linear stochasticity) based on the level of prediction accuracy in general, and on the prediction accuracy against the phase‐space reconstruction parameters in particular (termed as the ‘inverse approach’). The results not only provide possible indications to the presence of nonlinear determinism in the river flow series studied, but also support, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the low correlation dimensions reported for such. Therefore, nonlinear deterministic methods are a viable complement to linear stochastic ones for studying river flow dynamics, if sufficient caution is exercised in their applications and in interpreting the outcomes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Phases Representing Source Lengths of Tsunami in Tide Gauge Records

We identified a phase representing the source length of tsunami's in the tide gauge records around Japan. This phase was observed at tide stations, located in the direction of the long axis of the sources, for four large tsunamis: 1964 Niigata, 1968 Tokachi-oki, 1983 Nihonkaichubu, and 1993 Hokkaido-nanseioki. The phase consists of two continuous crests starting as the initial arrival and has a time length of 15–47 minutes. This is the time required to propagate across the source area along the long axis. Strong evidence that the phase is generated at the source is the good correlation between waveform observed at one side and time-inversed waveform at another side. The correlation results from the instantaneous generation of the source. The source lengths of 74–254 km were obtained under an assumption of sea depths at the sources and verified to coincide with ones within a relative error of 15% that were previously obtained by other methods.     

一种附约束的单频单历元GPS双差相位解算方法

在各类变形观测中，存在着2次观测的变形值不大及各种变形方向和大小可以比较精确预测等特点，可以把这些特征作为约束条件，对GPS单历元相位观测方程进行求解。基于以上几点，提出了一种含约束条件的单频单历元GPS相位求解算法和简单实用的模糊度搜索方法，本方法据观测值直接估计模糊度参数，并根据求出的模糊度估值进行搜索，还分析了最优解的获得和检验方法，最后用2个实例说明了该法的有效性和实用性。     

相位激电法(偶极-偶极)单频电磁耦合校正方法

主要介绍一种相位激电法(偶极—偶极,以下简称偶极)电磁耦合校正方法,其原理是将视电阻率近似视为均匀大地电阻率,利用均匀大地条件下偶极装置电磁感应响应的正演计算方法,算出电磁感应响应,再将其从观测的总响应中去除,从而达到电磁耦合校正的目的。     

闽台地震速报技术研究

本文通过系统地分析台网正式运行以来记录到主要的网内、网缘、网外地震的各种震相特征和定位参数 ,总结研究各区的震相特征、台站记录状况和震级的误差 ,力争提高台网地震速报的速度和精度。     

福州、小陶地震速报技术研究

本文通过分析福州、小陶地震的波形记录及各种定位参数 ,总结了该地区的震相特征和各台的震级情况 ,结合地震速报的规程 ,提出了对这两个地区地震速报的建议。     

黄磷电炉烟尘中各种磷化合物的化学物相分析

对黄磷电炉烟尘中各种形态的磷化合物进行了化学物相分析，得出元素磷、水溶性低价磷化合物、水溶性高价磷化合物、酸溶性高价磷化合物、酸溶性低价磷化合物、酸不溶性磷化合物在黄磷电炉烟尘中的含量，并对黄磷电炉烟尘的综合利用提出了建议。     

双重介质含水层中井水位潮汐相位滞后现象的理论分析

简略地介绍了双重介质含水层模型；推导出引潮力作用下双重介质含水层中渗流运动的偏微分方程；将此泛定的方程与潜水的Boulton方程进行数学类比，从而得出一个新的迟后给水项，为解释固体潮致井水位振荡相位滞后现象奠定了物理基础；通过对该泛定方程的分析，还发现该迟后给水项与深部含水层中存在的一种潮汐液流振荡现象有关．      

塔里木盆地轮南地区油气运移的路径、期次及方向研究

本文通过对塔里木盆地轮南地区及附近的钻井（出油井和未出油井）中揭示的裂缝，裂缝与成岩序列的穿插关系，连通砂体及断层和不整合面附近的矿物及矿物中流体包裹体研究，对塔里木盆地轮南地区油气运移路径和期次进行了探讨。通过研究指出了塔里木盆地轮南地区主要经历了3期大规模的油气运聚，地层之间的不整合面为油气横向运移的主要通道。高角度的裂隙及微裂缝为纵向运移主要通道。第一期油气运聚主要发生于海西期，第二期油气运聚主要发生在14－17Ma；第3期油气运聚主要发生在最近的5Ma以来。第一期油气运聚主要为自塔北隆起的西南，南向北，以横向运移为主；第二，第三期运聚主要自西南，南向北，自东向西运移，但主要以垂向运移为主。     

Latent heat effects of the major mantle phase transitions on low-angle subduction

Very low to zero shallow dip angles are observed at several moderately young subduction zones with an active trenchward moving overriding plate. We have investigated the effects of latent heat for this situation, where mantle material is pushed through the major mantle phase transitions during shallow low-angle subduction below the overriding plate. The significance of the buoyancy forces, arising from the latent heat effects, on the dynamics of the shallowly subducting slab is examined by numerical modeling. When a 32-Ma-old slab is overridden with 2.5 cm/yr by a continent, flat subduction occurs with a 4–5 cm/yr convergence rate. When latent heat is included in the model, forced downwellings cause a thermal anomaly and consequently thermal and phase buoyancy forces. Under these circumstances, the flat slab segment subducts horizontally about 350 km further and for about 11 Ma longer than in the case without latent heat, before it breaks through the 400-km phase transition. The style of subduction strongly depends on the mantle rheology: increasing the mantle viscosity by one order of magnitude can change the style of subduction from steep to shallow. Similarly, an overriding velocity of less than 1 cm/yr leads to steep subduction, which gradually changes to flat subduction when increasing the overriding velocity. However, these model parameters do not change the aforementioned effect of the latent heat, provided that low-angle subduction occurs. In all models latent heat resulted in a substantial increase of the flat slab length by 300–400 km. Varying the olivine–spinel transition Clapeyron slope γ from 1 to 6 MPa/K reveals a roughly linear relation between γ and the horizontal length of the slab. Based on these results, we conclude that buoyancy forces due to latent heat of phase transitions play an important role in low-angle subduction below an overriding plate.