Environmental toxicology: population modeling of cod larvae shows high sensitivity to loss of zooplankton prey

Two factors determine whether pollution is likely to affect a population indirectly through loss of prey: firstly, the sensitivity of the prey to the pollutants, and secondly, the sensitivity of the predator population to loss of prey at the given life stage. We here apply a statistical recruitment model for Northeast Arctic cod to evaluate the sensitivity of cod cohorts to loss of zooplankton prey, for example following an oil spill. The calculations show that cod cohorts are highly sensitive to possible zooplankton biomass reductions in the distribution area of the cod larvae, and point to a need for more knowledge about oil-effects on zooplankton. Our study illustrates how knowledge about population dynamics may guide which indirect effects to consider in environmental impact studies.     

气候变暖下干旱对森林生态系统的影响

人类活动显著影响着全球大气循环格局,全球平均温度升高导致干旱事件发生幅度、频度和持续时间增加,这对森林生态系统带来更多的是负面影响.本文基于已有研究,系统总结了干旱事件对森林生态系统地理分布格局、群落结构重建、植物生长和生理特性、死亡和灭绝、植物生产力以及碳循环功能的影响及其机理,并对未来干旱事件对森林生态系统长期效应以及在不同时间尺度上作用机理的研究提出建议.本研究对开展全球变化背景下森林生态系统对干旱事件响应机制的研究具有重要指导意义.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Main Street: Northeastern Oregon: The Founding and Development of Small Towns . Barbara Ruth Bailey . Food Politics: The Regional Conflict . David N. Balaam and Michael J. Carey , eds. The International Economy and Industrial Development: Trade and Investment in the Third World . R. Ballance , J. Ansari and H. Singer . Neighborhoods in Urban America . Ronald H. Bayor , ed. The English Heartland . By Robert Beckinsale and Monica Beckinsale . Regional Dimensions of Industrial Policy . Michael E. Bell and Paul S. Lande , eds. Tension Areas of the World . D. Gordon Bennett , ed. Latin America: an Introductory Survey . B. W. Blouet and O. M. Blouet , eds. Integration and Division: Geographical Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Problem . Frederick W. Boal and J. Neville H. Douglas , eds. Energy and Land Use . Robert W. Burchell and David Listokin , eds. Slopes and Weathering . Michael Clarke and John Small . Alaska's Rural Development . Peter G. Cornwall and Gerald Mc Beath , eds. The Politics of Park Design: A History of Urban Parks in America . Galen Cranz . World Congress on Land Policy, 1980, Proceedings . Matthew Cullen and Sharon Woolery , eds. Oregon Divided: A Regional Geography . Samuel N. Dicken and Emily F. Dicken . Urban Food Marketing and Third World Rural Development . T. Scarlett Epstein . South Africa: Spatial Frameworks for Development . T. J. D. Fair . Institutions and Geographical Patterns . Robin Flowerdew , ed. Industrialization of U.S. Agriculture, An Interpretive Atlas . Howard F. Gregor . Planning Theory: Prospects for the 1980s . Patsy Healy , Glen Mc Dougall and Michael J. Thomas , eds. Neighborhood Mobilization: Redevelopment and Response . Jeffrey R. Henig . The American Urban System: A Geographical Perspective . R. J. Johnston . Climate, History and the Modern World . Hubert H. Lamb . Climate and History: Studies in Past Climates and Their Impact on Man . T. M. L. Wigley , M. J. Ingram and G. Farmer . China: Railways and Agricultural Development, 1875–1935 . Ernest P. Liang . A Desirable Energy Future—A National Perspective . Robert S. Livingston , T. D. Anderson , T. M. Besmann , M. Olszewski , A. M. Perry , and C. D. West . Topothesia: Essays Presented to T. S. Ó Máille . B. S. Mac Aodha , ed. Transportation for the Poor: Research in Rural Mobility . Hal S. Maggied . Land Uses in American Cities . Harold M. Mayer and Charles R. Haves . Industrial Organisation and Location . Philip Mc Dermott and Michael Taylor . Human Adaptability: an Introduction to Ecological Anthropology . Emilio F. Moran . Regional Analysis and the New International Division of Labor . Frank Moulaert and Patricia W. Salinas , eds. The Nuclear War Atlas. Victoriaville, Quebec, Canada : Urbanization and Environmental Quality . Isao Orishimo . The Garden of Eden: The Botanic Garden and the Re-Creation of Paradise . John Prest . Earthfire, The Eruption of Mount St. Helens . Charles Rosenfeld and Robert Cooke . Contest for the South China Sea . Marwyn S. Samuels . The Future of the Wetlands: Assessing Visual-Cultural Values . Richard C. Smardon , ed. Tucson: the Life and Times of An American City. C. L. Sonnichsen . The Geography of Multinationals . Michael Taylor and Nigel Thrift , eds. Impact of Marine Pollution on Society . Virginia Tippie and Dana Kester . Reviving the Industrial City: the Politics of Urban Renewal in Lyon and Birmingham . Jerry A. Webman . Andean Reflections: Letters from Carl O. Sauer While on a South American Trip under a Grant from the Rockefeller Foundation, 1942 . Robert C. West , ed. Cartographic Drawing with Computers . P. Yoeli .     

Bayesian analysis of zero inflated spatiotemporal HIV/TB child mortality data through the INLA and SPDE approaches: Applied to data observed between 1992 and 2010 in rural North East South Africa

Longitudinal mortality data with few deaths usually have problems of zero-inflation. This paper presents and applies two Bayesian models which cater for zero-inflation, spatial and temporal random effects. To reduce the computational burden experienced when a large number of geo-locations are treated as a Gaussian field (GF) we transformed the field to a Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRF) by triangulation. We then modelled the spatial random effects using the Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs). Inference was done using a computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) called Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) suited for GMRF. The models were applied to data from 71,057 children aged 0 to under 10 years from rural north-east South Africa living in 15,703 households over the years 1992–2010. We found protective effects on HIV/TB mortality due to greater birth weight, older age and more antenatal clinic visits during pregnancy (adjusted RR (95% CI)): 0.73(0.53;0.99), 0.18(0.14;0.22) and 0.96(0.94;0.97) respectively. Therefore childhood HIV/TB mortality could be reduced if mothers are better catered for during pregnancy as this can reduce mother-to-child transmissions and contribute to improved birth weights. The INLA and SPDE approaches are computationally good alternatives in modelling large multilevel spatiotemporal GMRF data structures.     

Mapping the Geographical Diffusion of a Finnish Smallpox Epidemic from Historical Population Records

Smallpox mortality from an early 19th century epidemic in Finland is mapped at the parish village level. First, geographically referenced historical materials are used to construct a map showing the spread of smallpox mortality among villages. Next, the diffusion of smallpox morbidity is simulated by computer for the same set of villages. These two maps are then compared. Results indicate that at this scale maps of mortality diffusion can show general trends but have no direct spatial correspondence to the underlying pattern of morbidity diffusion. Mortality maps cannot be used as a surrogate measure of infectious contact behavior at micro scales of analysis.     

COMMENTS ON “SPATIAL VARIATION OF HILLSLOPE PROFILES IN THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU,KENTUCKY” BY EDMUND B. WOOOS

Book Reviewed in this article:

Main Street: Northeastern Oregon: The Founding and Development of Small Towns. Barbara Ruth Bailey.

Food Politics: The Regional Conflict. David N. Balaam and Michael J. Carey, eds.

The International Economy and Industrial Development: Trade and Investment in the Third World. R. Ballance, J. Ansari and H. Singer.

Neighborhoods in Urban America. Ronald H. Bayor, ed.

The English Heartland. By Robert Beckinsale and Monica Beckinsale.

Regional Dimensions of Industrial Policy. Michael E. Bell and Paul S. Lande, eds.

Tension Areas of the World. D. Gordon Bennett, ed.

Latin America: an Introductory Survey. B. W. Blouet and O. M. Blouet, eds.

Integration and Division: Geographical Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Problem. Frederick W. Boal and J. Neville H. Douglas, eds.

Energy and Land Use. Robert W. Burchell and David Listokin, eds.

Slopes and Weathering. Michael Clarke and John Small.

Alaska's Rural Development. Peter G. Cornwall and Gerald McBeath, eds.

The Politics of Park Design: A History of Urban Parks in America. Galen Cranz.

World Congress on Land Policy, 1980, Proceedings. Matthew Cullen and Sharon Woolery, eds.

Oregon Divided: A Regional Geography. Samuel N. Dicken and Emily F. Dicken.

Urban Food Marketing and Third World Rural Development. T. Scarlett Epstein.

South Africa: Spatial Frameworks for Development. T. J. D. Fair.

Institutions and Geographical Patterns. Robin Flowerdew, ed.

Industrialization of U.S. Agriculture, An Interpretive Atlas. Howard F. Gregor.

Planning Theory: Prospects for the 1980s. Patsy Healy, Glen McDougall and Michael J. Thomas, eds.

Neighborhood Mobilization: Redevelopment and Response. Jeffrey R. Henig.

The American Urban System: A Geographical Perspective. R. J. Johnston.

Climate, History and the Modern World. Hubert H. Lamb.

Climate and History: Studies in Past Climates and Their Impact on Man. T. M. L. Wigley, M. J. Ingram and G. Farmer.

China: Railways and Agricultural Development, 1875–1935. Ernest P. Liang.

A Desirable Energy Future—A National Perspective. Robert S. Livingston, T. D. Anderson, T. M. Besmann, M. Olszewski, A. M. Perry, and C. D. West.

Topothesia: Essays Presented to T. S. Ó Máille. B. S. Mac Aodha, ed.

Transportation for the Poor: Research in Rural Mobility. Hal S. Maggied.

Land Uses in American Cities. Harold M. Mayer and Charles R. Haves.

Industrial Organisation and Location. Philip McDermott and Michael Taylor.

Human Adaptability: an Introduction to Ecological Anthropology. Emilio F. Moran.

Regional Analysis and the New International Division of Labor. Frank Moulaert and Patricia W. Salinas, eds.

The Nuclear War Atlas. Victoriaville, Quebec, Canada:

Urbanization and Environmental Quality. Isao Orishimo.

The Garden of Eden: The Botanic Garden and the Re-Creation of Paradise. John Prest.

Earthfire, The Eruption of Mount St. Helens. Charles Rosenfeld and Robert Cooke.

Contest for the South China Sea. Marwyn S. Samuels.

The Future of the Wetlands: Assessing Visual-Cultural Values. Richard C. Smardon, ed.

Tucson: the Life and Times of An American City. C. L. Sonnichsen.

The Geography of Multinationals. Michael Taylor and Nigel Thrift, eds.

Impact of Marine Pollution on Society. Virginia Tippie and Dana Kester.

Reviving the Industrial City: the Politics of Urban Renewal in Lyon and Birmingham. Jerry A. Webman.

Andean Reflections: Letters from Carl O. Sauer While on a South American Trip under a Grant from the Rockefeller Foundation, 1942. Robert C. West, ed.

Cartographic Drawing with Computers. P. Yoeli.     

Planktonic stages of the teleost family carapidae in eastern New Zealand waters

The occurrence of planktonic carapid eggs in Otago waters, of young stages of Echiodon rendahli off Castlepoint, and the possible presence of unrecorded members of the family Carapidae in New Zealand waters is discussed. Young E. rendahli possess a long spine which originates dorsally to a distinctive suspended gut.     

Some effects of eutrophication and the removal of aquatic plants by grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) on rainbow trout (Salmo gairdnerii) in Lake Parkinson,New Zealand

Temporary removal of aquatic plants in Lake Parkinson, a small, eutrophic dune lake, resulted in a number of changes to the population of stocked rainbow trout (Salmo gairdnerii). During each summer the lake stratified and low oxygen levels limited the distribution of trout to shallow (0–4 m) surface waters. In the first summer following weed removal the numbers of black shags (Phallacrocorax carbo) counted at the lake increased, and their predation resulted in a decline in trout density. However, the growth rate and condition of the trout population then exceeded that of trout present before weed removal. During the second summer after weed removal a cladoceran bloom was followed by low phytoplankton levels and high ammonia concentrations. A prolonged calm compounded this situation with the result that oxygen levels in bottom and surface waters dropped below 2 ppm. These low oxygen levels eliminated the trout population, but other fish species present survived. Elimination of aquatic plants affected the population dynamics of other fish species in the lake with potential implications for the trout. The experiment demonstrated the importance of weed beds in maintaining a stable fish community in lakes such as Lake Parkinson.     

Predicting survival of western rock lobsters Panulirus cygnus using discriminant analysis of haemolymph parameters taken immediately following simulated handling treatments

Instances of morbidity amongst rock lobsters (Panulirus cygnus) arriving at factories in Western Australia (WA) have been attributed to stress during post‐harvest handling. This study used discriminant analysis to determine whether physiological correlates of stress following a period of simulated post‐harvest handling had any validity as predictors of future rejection or morbidity of western rock lobsters. Groups of 230 western rock lobsters were stored for 6 h in five environments (submerged/flowing sea water, submerged/recirculating sea water, humid air, flowing seawater spray, and recirculated seawater spray). The experiment was conducted in late spring (ambient sea water 22°C), and repeated again in early autumn (ambient sea water 26°C). After 6 h treatment, each lobster was graded for acceptability for live export, numbered, and its haemolymph was sampled. The samples were analysed for a number of physiological and health status parameters. The lobsters were then stored for a week in tanks in the live lobster factory to record mortality. The mortality of lobsters in the factory was associated with earlier deviations in haemolymph parameters as they emerged from the storage treatments. Discriminant analysis (DA) of the haemolymph assays enabled the fate of 80–90% of the lobsters to be correctly categorised within each experiment. However, functions derived from one experiment were less accurate at predicting mortality when applied to the other experiments. One of the reasons for this was the higher mortality and the more severe patho‐physiological changes observed in lobsters stored in humid air or sprays at the higher temperature. The analysis identified lactate accumulation during emersion and associated physiological and haemocyte‐related effects as a major correlate of mortality. Reducing these deviations, for example by submerged transport, is expected to ensure high levels of survival. None of the indicators tested predicted mortality with total accuracy. The simplest and most accurate means of comparing emersed treatments was to count the mortality afterwards.     

Aspects of the biology and fisheries of an economically important sparid Dentex macrophthalmus (Bloch 1791) in the Namibe province,Angola

The sparid Dentex macrophthalmus is a widespread, important fishery species along most of the West African coast from southern Namibia to the Mediterranean. In southern Angola it is an important artisanal species targeted predominantly by handline fishers. A biological and fisheries study was conducted on this species in southern Angola between June 2008 and July 2009. It was the dominant species in the artisanal fishery, accounting for 99% of the sparids captured and 67% (by mass) of the total catch. The life history of D. macrophthalmus was characterised by slow growth (females: L_t = 309[1 ? e^{?0.06(t + 5.43)}], males: L_t = 248[1 ? e^{?0.16(t ? 1.77)}]), advanced age at maturity (females: 7.4 years, males: 6.0 years) and high longevity (females: 36 years, males: 38 years). The sex ratio was 1:1 male:female. The length- and age-frequency distributions and macroscopic observations suggested that the species is a late gonochorist. Males and females reached 50% maturity at 151 and 166 mm fork length respectively. Although individuals with ripe gonads were found during most of the year, the peak spawning period appeared to be in December and January. Despite a life history that renders D. macrophthal-mus vulnerable to overexploitation, only 38% of artisanal fishers noticed a decline in the catches of this species. Potential reasons for this include: technology creep; limited pressure on the juvenile portion of the stock as a result of late recruitment (above the length of 50% maturity); the ‘basin affect’, whereby depleted areas are reseeded by areas (e.g. deeper water) inaccessible to the linefishery; and a deep-water reserve of large individuals. It is recommended that precautionary management strategies be implemented until the age estimates are revised by the countries in which this species forms significant fisheries.